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System Dynamic Model for Crop Production, Water Footprint, and Virtual Water Nexus

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  • Inas El-Gafy

Abstract

Intended for comprehensive assessment of water usage in agricultural for food production and to address its future, it is essential to scrutinize the dynamic behavior of crop production and its water footprint and virtual water trade. Through the current research a System Dynamic model that can be applied to estimate crop production, water footprint, and virtual water nexus was developed. The system could be applied to explore how water footprint of crop production and consumption change under proposed planned scenarios which differ from each other in terms of main drivers of change. The drivers of change include population, per capita crop consumption, crop trade patterns, crop yield, and climate change impact. The system is developed to be applied at the country level. A case study from Egypt was analyzed applying the developed system. Where, water footprint of wheat production (green, blue, and grey water), consumption (internal, import and export), and its virtual water balance for years 2010 to 2050 were analyzed under proposed planned scenarios. These proposed planned scenarios were varying in wheat trade pattern strategies and impact of climate change on wheat water consumption and its yield. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Inas El-Gafy, 2014. "System Dynamic Model for Crop Production, Water Footprint, and Virtual Water Nexus," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(13), pages 4467-4490, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:28:y:2014:i:13:p:4467-4490
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-014-0667-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Guangyao Deng & Liujuan Wang & Yanan Song, 2015. "Effect of Variation of Water-Use Efficiency on Structure of Virtual Water Trade - Analysis Based on Input–Output Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(8), pages 2947-2965, June.
    2. Wouter Wolters & Robert Smit & Mohamed Nour El-Din & Eman Sayed Ahmed & Jochen Froebrich & Henk Ritzema, 2016. "Issues and Challenges in Spatial and Temporal Water Allocation in the Nile Delta," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-12, April.
    3. Zhai, Yijie & Bai, Yueyang & Wu, Zhen & Hong, Jinglan & Shen, Xiaoxu & Xie, Fei & Li, Xiangzhi, 2022. "Grain self-sufficiency versus environmental stress: An integration of system dynamics and life cycle assessment," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    4. Elbeltagi, Ahmed & Deng, Jinsong & Wang, Ke & Hong, Yang, 2020. "Crop Water footprint estimation and modeling using an artificial neural network approach in the Nile Delta, Egypt," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    5. Lei Jin & Yuanhua Chang & Xianwei Ju & Fei Xu, 2019. "A Study on the Sustainable Development of Water, Energy, and Food in China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(19), pages 1-16, September.
    6. Haojia Kong & Lifan Shi & Dan Da & Zhijiang Li & Decai Tang & Wei Xing, 2022. "Simulation of China’s Carbon Emission based on Influencing Factors," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-15, April.

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