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A Dynamic Model for Vulnerability Assessment of Regional Water Resources in Arid Areas: A Case Study of Bayingolin, China

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  • Guangyang Wu
  • Lanhai Li
  • Sajjad Ahmad
  • Xi Chen
  • Xiangliang Pan

Abstract

Water scarcity is a common problem in many countries, especially those located in arid zones. The vulnerability of water resources due to climate change is an imperative research focus in the field of water resources management. In this study, a System Dynamics (SD) model was developed to simulate the water supply-and-demand process in Bayingolin, a prefecture in China, and to evaluate water resources vulnerability currently as well as in the future. The model was calibrated and validated using historical data. Three alternative scenarios were designed by changing parameters to test the vulnerability of water resources: i) increase the Wastewater Treatment Rate by 50 %; ii) decrease the Irrigation Water Demand per Hectare by 20 %; iii) increase Total Water Supply by 5 %. Results show that the baseline vulnerability of study region is high. The agricultural irrigation is the largest water use, and the water demand structure will change in future. Decreasing the irrigation water demand is the most suitable intervention to relatively reduce the vulnerability. Results also demonstrated that SD is a suitable method to explore management options for a complex water supply and demand system. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013

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  • Guangyang Wu & Lanhai Li & Sajjad Ahmad & Xi Chen & Xiangliang Pan, 2013. "A Dynamic Model for Vulnerability Assessment of Regional Water Resources in Arid Areas: A Case Study of Bayingolin, China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(8), pages 3085-3101, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:27:y:2013:i:8:p:3085-3101
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-013-0334-z
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    8. Neeraj Vedwan & Sajjad Ahmad & Fernando Miralles-Wilhelm & Kenneth Broad & David Letson & Guillermo Podesta, 2008. "Institutional Evolution in Lake Okeechobee Management in Florida: Characteristics, Impacts, and Limitations," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 22(6), pages 699-718, June.
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    10. Muhammad Ahmad & Abdul Ghumman & Sajjad Ahmad, 2009. "Estimation of Clark’s Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph Parameters and Development of Direct Surface Runoff Hydrograph," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 23(12), pages 2417-2435, September.
    11. Sajjad Ahmad & Dinesh Prashar, 2010. "Evaluating Municipal Water Conservation Policies Using a Dynamic Simulation Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(13), pages 3371-3395, October.
    12. Ali Mirchi & Kaveh Madani & David Watkins & Sajjad Ahmad, 2012. "Synthesis of System Dynamics Tools for Holistic Conceptualization of Water Resources Problems," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(9), pages 2421-2442, July.
    13. Ines Winz & Gary Brierley & Sam Trowsdale, 2009. "The Use of System Dynamics Simulation in Water Resources Management," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 23(7), pages 1301-1323, May.
    14. Ángel Moratalla & Juan Gómez-Alday & David Sanz & Santiago Castaño & Jorge Heras, 2011. "Evaluation of a GIS-Based Integrated Vulnerability Risk Assessment for the Mancha Oriental System (SE Spain)," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(14), pages 3677-3697, November.
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    5. Ruihuan Li & Ping Guo & Jianbing Li, 2018. "Regional Water Use Structure Optimization Under Multiple Uncertainties Based on Water Resources Vulnerability Analysis," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(5), pages 1827-1847, March.
    6. Laishram Kanta Singh & Madan K. Jha & V. M. Chowdary, 2021. "Evaluation of water demand and supply under varying meteorological conditions in Eastern India and mitigation strategies for sustainable agricultural production," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 1264-1291, February.
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    8. Kazi Ali Tamaddun & Ajay Kalra & Sajjad Ahmad, 2019. "Spatiotemporal Variation in the Continental US Streamflow in Association with Large-Scale Climate Signals Across Multiple Spectral Bands," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(6), pages 1947-1968, April.
    9. Khawar Naeem & Adel Zghibi & Adel Elomri & Annamaria Mazzoni & Chefi Triki, 2023. "A Literature Review on System Dynamics Modeling for Sustainable Management of Water Supply and Demand," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-24, April.
    10. Binglong Wang & Yanpeng Cai & Xin’An Yin & Qian Tan & Yan Hao, 2017. "An Integrated Approach of System Dynamics, Orthogonal Experimental Design and Inexact Optimization for Supporting Water Resources Management under Uncertainty," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(5), pages 1665-1694, March.
    11. Abdullah O. Dakhlalla & Prem B. Parajuli, 2016. "Evaluation of the Best Management Practices at the Watershed Scale to Attenuate Peak Streamflow Under Climate Change Scenarios," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(3), pages 963-982, February.
    12. Ali, Muhammad Fadzli & Sulong, Siti Hawa & Julius, Kotir & Smith, Carl & Aziz, Ammar Abdul, 2022. "Using a participatory system dynamics modelling approach to inform the management of Malaysian rubber production," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    13. Jun Xia & Like Ning & Quan Wang & Junxu Chen & Long Wan & Si Hong, 2017. "Vulnerability of and risk to water resources in arid and semi-arid regions of West China under a scenario of climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 144(3), pages 549-563, October.
    14. Han Li & Wei Song, 2021. "Spatiotemporal Distribution and Influencing Factors of Ecosystem Vulnerability on Qinghai-Tibet Plateau," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(12), pages 1-21, June.

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