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Development of a Dynamic Long-Term Water Allocation Model for Agriculture and Industry Water Demands

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  • Akbar Karimi
  • Reza Ardakanian

Abstract

Demands growth and water resources limitation, enforce water sector policy makers to integrate water supply–demand interactions in a coherent framework for efficient water allocation. Water supply–demand interaction, changes long-term trend of water demands, which in turn has a substantial influence on water allocation. Researches on water allocation modeling lack adequate projection of relationship between water supply and demand. Socio-economic factors representing water allocation stakeholders’ benefits, account for the main share of water supply–demand interaction. Identification, representation and consideration of these factors in a water allocation model, is the main limitation of researches on this issue. In this paper a new long-term water allocation model at basin level is developed and introduced. This model considers water supply–demand interaction in agriculture and industry sectors, by use of socio-economic parameters; such as, production, cultivated land area, revenue and employment. The model main advantage is its ability to reflect the interrelationship between essential hydro-system and supply–demand components. It can explore both socio-economic and water allocation consequences of various policy choices. The model is used to assess two different development policies at basin level. The first one is fourth 5-year development plan of Iran, which fixes predefined growth rate for different sectors. The second one assumes the present state continues up to the end of planning horizon. A typical multi-reservoir water basin is modeled and analyzed for two policies. Indices that summarize long-term state of hydro-system and stakeholders are defined and used in policies assessment and decision making. Results of these assessments show fourth 5-year development policy provides opportunities for substantial improvement in water allocation and stakeholders’ benefits. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2010

Suggested Citation

  • Akbar Karimi & Reza Ardakanian, 2010. "Development of a Dynamic Long-Term Water Allocation Model for Agriculture and Industry Water Demands," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(9), pages 1717-1746, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:24:y:2010:i:9:p:1717-1746
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-009-9521-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. A. Ganji & D. Khalili & M. Karamouz & K. Ponnambalam & M. Javan, 2008. "A Fuzzy Stochastic Dynamic Nash Game Analysis of Policies for Managing Water Allocation in a Reservoir System," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 22(1), pages 51-66, January.
    2. Roe, Terry & Dinar, Ariel & Tsur, Yacov & Diao, Xinshen, 2005. "Feedback links between economy-wide and farm-level policies: With application to irrigation water management in Morocco," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 905-928, November.
    3. Johansson, Robert C., 2005. "Micro and macro-level approaches for assessing the value of irrigation water," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3778, The World Bank.
    4. McKinney, D. C. & Cai, X. & Rosegrant, M. W. & Ringler, C. & Scott, C. A., 1999. "Modeling water resources management at the basin level: review and future directions," IWMI Books, Reports H024075, International Water Management Institute.
    5. Roe, Terry & Dinar, Ariel & Tsur, Yacov & Xinshen Diao, 2005. "Feedback links between economy-wide and farm-level policies : application to irrigation water management in Morocco," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3550, The World Bank.
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    1. David Martínez-Granados & José Maestre-Valero & Javier Calatrava & Victoriano Martínez-Alvarez, 2011. "The Economic Impact of Water Evaporation Losses from Water Reservoirs in the Segura Basin, SE Spain," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(13), pages 3153-3175, October.
    2. R. Roozbahani & B. Abbasi & S. Schreider, 2017. "Determining Location and Capacity of Dams through Economic and Environmental Indicators," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(14), pages 4539-4556, November.
    3. R. Roozbahani & S. Schreider & B. Abbasi, 2013. "Economic Sharing of Basin Water Resources between Competing Stakeholders," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(8), pages 2965-2988, June.
    4. Maryam Ghashghaie & Safar Marofi & Hossein Marofi, 2014. "Using System Dynamics Method to Determine the Effect of Water Demand Priorities on Downstream Flow," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(14), pages 5055-5072, November.
    5. Farhang Daneshmand & Akbar Karimi & Mohammad Nikoo & Mohammad Bazargan-Lari & Jan Adamowski, 2014. "Mitigating Socio-Economic-Environmental Impacts During Drought Periods by Optimizing the Conjunctive Management of Water Resources," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(6), pages 1517-1529, April.

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