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Ties

Author

Listed:
  • Federico Revelli

    (University of Torino, Campus Luigi Einaudi
    CESifo)

  • Tsung-Sheng Tsai

    (National Taiwan University)

  • Cheng-Tai Wu

    (Fu Jen Catholic University)

Abstract

We tackle the question of the role of pivotality in voter turnout decisions by testing for the first time whether the occurrence of a tied election generates information spillovers onto nearby localities’ subsequent elections. First, we develop a model where voters update their beliefs regarding the probability of their vote being decisive upon observing earlier elections’ outcomes. Next, by exploiting Italian mayoral elections ending in close outcomes during the past two decades and the quasi-experimental conditions created by the staggered electoral calendar, we find a substantial impact on voter turnout rates of exposure to spillovers from tied elections.

Suggested Citation

  • Federico Revelli & Tsung-Sheng Tsai & Cheng-Tai Wu, 2024. "Ties," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 62(1), pages 1-35, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:sochwe:v:62:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1007_s00355-023-01476-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s00355-023-01476-0
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • H71 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue

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