The performance of pivotal-voter models in small-scale elections: Evidence from Texas liquor referenda
AbstractThis paper explores the ability of pivotal-voter models to explain voter behavior in small-scale elections using data from Texas liquor referenda. The findings provide little support for the view that pivotal-voter models are a reasonable theory for understanding small-scale elections. Interestingly, this is not because they cannot explain the levels of turnout in the data, but rather because they cannot explain the size of the winning margins. The logic of pivotal-voter models implies that elections must be expected to be close even if there is a significant difference between the sizes of the groups or the intensity of their preferences. With even a relatively small number of eligible voters, elections that are expected to be close ex ante must end up being close ex post. However, in the data, winning margins are often significant.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Public Economics.
Volume (Year): 92 (2008)
Issue (Month): 3-4 (April)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505578
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Tilman Börgers, 2001.
NajEcon Working Paper Reviews
- Victor Aguirregabiria & Pedro Mira, 2004.
"Sequential Estimation of Dynamic Discrete Games,"
- Vuong, Quang H, 1989. "Likelihood Ratio Tests for Model Selection and Non-nested Hypotheses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 307-33, March.
- Timothy Feddersen & Alvaro Sandroni, 2006. "A Theory of Participation in Elections," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(4), pages 1271-1282, September.
- Schram, Arthur & Sonnemans, Joep, 1996.
"Voter Turnout as a Participation Game: An Experimental Investigation,"
International Journal of Game Theory,
Springer, vol. 25(3), pages 385-406.
- Arthur Schram & John Sonnemans, 2001. "Voter Turnout as a Participation Game: An Experimental Investigation," Levine's Working Paper Archive 563824000000000033, David K. Levine.
- Thomas Palfrey & Howard Rosenthal, 1983. "A strategic calculus of voting," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 41(1), pages 7-53, January.
- Stephen Hansen & Thomas R Palfrey & Howard Rosenthal, 2010. "The Downsian Model of Electoral Participation: Formal Theory and Empirical Analysis of the Constituency Size Effect," Levine's Working Paper Archive 101, David K. Levine.
- Colin M. Campbell, 1999. "Large Electorates and Decisive Minorities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(6), pages 1199-1217, December.
- Thomas R Palfrey & Howard Rosenthal, 2001. "A Strategic Calculus of Voting," Levine's Working Paper Archive 563824000000000039, David K. Levine.
- Bajari, Patrick & Hong, Han & Krainer, John & Nekipelov, Denis, 2010.
"Estimating Static Models of Strategic Interactions,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 28(4), pages 469-482.
- Elie Tamer, 2003. "Incomplete Simultaneous Discrete Response Model with Multiple Equilibria," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 70(1), pages 147-165, January.
- Cason, Timothy N. & Mui, Vai-Lam, 2005.
"Uncertainty and resistance to reform in laboratory participation games,"
European Journal of Political Economy,
Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 708-737, September.
- Vai-Lam Mui & Timothy N. Cason, 2004. "Uncertainty and Resistance to Reform in Laboratory Participation Games," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 1, Econometric Society.
- Elie Tamer, 2003. "Incomplete Simultaneous Discrete Response Model with Multiple Equilibria," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 70(1), pages 147-165.
- Battaglini, Marco, 2004.
"Sequential Voting with Abstention,"
05-19-2004, Princeton University, Research Program in Political Economy.
- Goffe, William L & Ferrier, Gary D & Rogers, John, 1992. "Simulated Annealing: An Initial Application in Econometrics," Computer Science in Economics & Management, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 5(2), pages 133-46, May.
- Timothy J. Feddersen, 2004. "Rational Choice Theory and the Paradox of Not Voting," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(1), pages 99-112, Winter.
- John Ledyard, 1984. "The pure theory of large two-candidate elections," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 44(1), pages 7-41, January.
- Stephen Hansen & Thomas Palfrey & Howard Rosenthal, 1987. "The Downsian model of electoral participation: Formal theory and empirical analysis of the constituency size effect," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 52(1), pages 15-33, January.
- Sobbrio, Francesco & Navarra, Pietro, 2010.
"Electoral participation and communicative voting in Europe,"
European Journal of Political Economy,
Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 185-207, June.
- Sobbrio, Francesco & Navarra, Pietro, 2009. "Electoral Participation and Communicative Voting in Europe," MPRA Paper 18311, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Brett R. Gordon & Wesley R. Hartmann, 2013.
"Advertising Effects in Presidential Elections,"
INFORMS, vol. 32(1), pages 19-35, June.
- Eric J. Brunner & Stephen L. Ross, 2009. "Is the Median Voter Decisive? Evidence of 'Ends Against the Middle' From Referenda Voting Patterns," Working papers 2009-02, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics, revised May 2010.
- Luís Aguiar-Conraria & Pedro C. Magalhães, 2008.
"Referendum Design, Quorum Rules and Turnout,"
NIPE Working Papers
05/2008, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
- Brunner, Eric J. & Ross, Stephen L., 2010. "Is the median voter decisive? Evidence from referenda voting patterns," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(11-12), pages 898-910, December.
- Hamlin, Alan & Jennings, Colin, 2009.
"Expressive Political Behaviour: Foundations, Scope and Implications,"
SIRE Discussion Papers
2009-41, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
- Alan Hamlin & Colin Jennings, 2009. "Expressive Political Behaviour: Foundations, Scope and Implications," Working Papers 0918, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
- Janne Tukiainen & Teemu Lyytikäinen, 2013. "Voters are rational," Working Papers 50, Government Institute for Economic Research Finland (VATT).
- Jason A. Aimone & Luigi Butera & Thomas Stratmann, 2014. "Altruistic Punishment in Elections," CESifo Working Paper Series 4945, CESifo Group Munich.
- Aguiar-Conraria, Luís & Magalhães, Pedro C., 2010. "How quorum rules distort referendum outcomes: Evidence from a pivotal voter model," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 541-557, December.
- Luís Francisco Aguiar-Conraria & Pedro C. Magalhães & Christoph A. Vanberg, 2013. "Experimental evidence that quorum rules discourage turnout and promote election boycotts," NIPE Working Papers 14/2013, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
- Krishnakumar, Jaya & Müller, Tobias, 2012. "The political economy of immigration in a direct democracy: The case of Switzerland," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 174-189.
- Stefano DellaVigna & John A. List & Ulrike Malmendier & Gautam Rao, 2014.
"Voting to Tell Others,"
NBER Working Papers
19832, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Yasutora Watanabe & Kei Kawai, 2009.
"Inferring Strategic Voting,"
2009 Meeting Papers
803, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Spenkuch, Jörg, 2013. "On the Extent of Strategic Voting," MPRA Paper 50198, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Marina Agranov & Jacob K. Goeree & Julian Romero & Leeat Yariv, 2012. "What makes voters turn out: the effects of polls and beliefs," ECON - Working Papers 067, Department of Economics - University of Zurich.
- Spenkuch, Jörg L., 2012. "Please don’t vote for me: strategic voting in a natural experiment with perverse incentives," MPRA Paper 38416, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Luís Francisco Aguiar & Pedro C. Magalhães, 2009. "How quorum rules distort referendum outcomes: evidence from a pivotal voter model," NIPE Working Papers 17/2009, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
- Antonio Merlo & Thomas R.Palfrey, 2013. "External Validation of Voter Turnout Models by Concealed Parameter Recovery," PIER Working Paper Archive 13-012, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.