IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/snbeco/v2y2022i5d10.1007_s43546-022-00208-3.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The 1920s technological revolution and the crash of 1929: the role of RCA, DuPont, General Motors, and Union Carbide

Author

Listed:
  • Dimitra Papadovasilaki

    (Lake Forest College)

  • Federico Guerrero

    (University of Nevada)

  • Rattaphon Wuthisatian

    (Southern Oregon University)

  • Bhraman Gulati

    (Colorado State University)

Abstract

We study the role that RCA, DuPont, General Motors, and Union Carbide played in the 1927–1933 stock market boom and crash episode. We investigate whether a technological displacement took place and if the cycle was characterized by over-trading. The reasons we reexamine this episode is to contribute to the literature in the following ways: (1) The episode is studied using price and volume, daily data at the company level for the first time. (2) The paper introduces a methodological innovation and in contrast to previous literature, identifies technological displacement with the use of qualitative criteria rather than quantitative metrics. We display that the crash of 1929 originated in speculative activity revolving around a few companies that were the most innovative of the time, namely: RCA, DuPont, General Motors, and Union Carbide, and later extended to the rest of the stock market. These companies led the boom that preceded the crash, reinforcing the idea that radical technological innovations responsible for enhancing long-term prosperity can be the same ones that produce large financial cycles.

Suggested Citation

  • Dimitra Papadovasilaki & Federico Guerrero & Rattaphon Wuthisatian & Bhraman Gulati, 2022. "The 1920s technological revolution and the crash of 1929: the role of RCA, DuPont, General Motors, and Union Carbide," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(5), pages 1-22, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:snbeco:v:2:y:2022:i:5:d:10.1007_s43546-022-00208-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s43546-022-00208-3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s43546-022-00208-3
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s43546-022-00208-3?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert Z. Aliber & Charles P. Kindleberger, 2015. "Manias, Panics, and Crashes," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, edition 0, number 978-1-137-52574-1.
    2. Rappoport, Peter & White, Eugene N, 1994. "Was the Crash of 1929 Expected?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 271-281, March.
    3. Sirkin, Gerald, 1975. "The Stock Market of 1929 Revisited: A Note," Business History Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 49(2), pages 223-231, July.
    4. Rappoport, Peter & White, Eugene N., 1993. "Was There a Bubble in the 1929 Stock Market?," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 53(3), pages 549-574, September.
    5. Gili Yen & Cheng-few Lee, 2008. "Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH): Past, Present and Future," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 11(02), pages 305-329.
    6. Pierse, R. G. & Snell, A. J., 1995. "Temporal aggregation and the power of tests for a unit root," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 333-345, February.
    7. Bradley Ewing & Mark Thompson & Mark Yanochik, 2007. "Using volume to forecast stock market volatility around the time of the 1929 crash," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(14), pages 1123-1128.
    8. DeJong, David N, et al, 1992. "Integration versus Trend Stationarity in Time Series," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(2), pages 423-433, March.
    9. Ellen R. McGrattan & Edward C. Prescott, 2000. "Is the stock market overvalued?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 24(Fall), pages 20-40.
    10. Burton G. Malkiel, 2003. "The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Its Critics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 59-82, Winter.
    11. Jörg Breitung & Norman R. Swanson, 2002. "Temporal aggregation and spurious instantaneous causality in multiple time series models," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(6), pages 651-665, November.
    12. Burton G. Malkiel, 2003. "The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Its Critics," Working Papers 111, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    13. Ali Kabiri, 2014. "The Great Crash of 1929," Palgrave Studies in the History of Finance, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-1-137-37289-5, December.
    14. Burton G. Malkiel, 2003. "The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Its Critics," Working Papers 111, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    15. Luboš Pástor & Pietro Veronesi, 2009. "Technological Revolutions and Stock Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(4), pages 1451-1483, September.
    16. De Long, J. Bradford & Shleifer, Andrei, 1991. "The stock market bubble of 1929: evidence from clsoed-end mutual funds," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 51(3), pages 675-700, September.
    17. Tom Nicholas, 2008. "Does Innovation Cause Stock Market Runups? Evidence from the Great Crash," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1370-1396, September.
    18. repec:pri:cepsud:91malkiel is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Marcellino, Massimiliano, 1999. "Some Consequences of Temporal Aggregation in Empirical Analysis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 17(1), pages 129-136, January.
    20. Mathy, Gabriel P., 2016. "Stock volatility, return jumps and uncertainty shocks during the Great Depression," Financial History Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(2), pages 165-192, August.
    21. Donaldson, R Glen & Kamstra, Mark, 1996. "A New Dividend Forecasting Procedure That Rejects Bubbles in Asset Prices: The Case of 1929's Stock Crash," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(2), pages 333-383.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Robert F. Bruner & Scott C. Miller, 2019. "The Great Crash of 1929: A Look Back After 90 Years," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 31(4), pages 43-58, December.
    2. Mario Daniele Amore & Mariano Mastrogiorgio, 2022. "Technological Entry, Redeployability, and Firm Value," Journal of Management Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(7), pages 1688-1722, November.
    3. Eugene N. White, 2004. "Bubbles and Busts: The 1990s in the Mirror of the 1920s," FRU Working Papers 2004/09, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. Finance Research Unit.
    4. Yardley, Ben, 2020. "The Effects of Donald Trump’s Tweets on The Stock Exchange," MPRA Paper 102578, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Tienyu Hwang & Simon Gao & Heather Owen, 2014. "Markowitz efficiency and size effect: evidence from the UK stock market," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 43(4), pages 721-750, November.
    6. Chi-Wei Su & Xu-Yu Cai & Ran Tao, 2020. "Can Stock Investor Sentiment Be Contagious in China?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-16, February.
    7. Ashok Chanabasangouda Patil & Shailesh Rastogi, 2019. "Time-Varying Price–Volume Relationship and Adaptive Market Efficiency: A Survey of the Empirical Literature," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-18, June.
    8. Mikio Ito & Akihiko Noda & Tatsuma Wada, 2016. "The evolution of stock market efficiency in the US: a non-Bayesian time-varying model approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(7), pages 621-635, February.
    9. Bianchi, Sergio & Pianese, Augusto, 2018. "Time-varying Hurst–Hölder exponents and the dynamics of (in)efficiency in stock markets," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 64-75.
    10. Nuriddin Ikromov & Abdullah Yavas, 2012. "Cash Flow Volatility, Prices and Price Volatility: An Experimental Study," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 44(1), pages 203-229, January.
    11. Stéphane Goutte & David Guerreiro & Bilel Sanhaji & Sophie Saglio & Julien Chevallier, 2019. "International Financial Markets," Post-Print halshs-02183053, HAL.
    12. Narayan, Seema & Smyth, Russell, 2015. "The financial econometrics of price discovery and predictability," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 380-393.
    13. Grosche, Stephanie, 2012. "Limitations of Granger Causality Analysis to assess the price effects from the financialization of agricultural commodity markets under bounded rationality," Discussion Papers 121868, University of Bonn, Institute for Food and Resource Economics.
    14. Kim, Jae H. & Shamsuddin, Abul & Lim, Kian-Ping, 2011. "Stock return predictability and the adaptive markets hypothesis: Evidence from century-long U.S. data," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 868-879.
    15. Alagidede, Paul, 2011. "Return behaviour in Africa's emerging equity markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 133-140, May.
    16. Nabiha Haouas, 2021. "Multifractal Analysis of the Foreign Exchange Markets Application to MENA Countries," Accounting and Finance Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 10(2), pages 1-17, May.
    17. Deniz Ersan & Chifumi Nishioka & Ansgar Scherp, 2020. "Comparison of machine learning methods for financial time series forecasting at the examples of over 10 years of daily and hourly data of DAX 30 and S&P 500," Journal of Computational Social Science, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 103-133, April.
    18. Stefanescu, Razvan & Dumitriu, Ramona, 2016. "Particularitǎţi ale evoluţiei variabilelor financiare [Some particularities of the financial variables evolution]," MPRA Paper 73481, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 02 Sep 2016.
    19. Minea Elena Loredana, 2019. "A Critical Theoretical Analysis On The Implications Of Efficient Market Hypothesis (Emh)," Annals - Economy Series, Constantin Brancusi University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 6, pages 298-303, December.
    20. Lionel Page & Christoph Siemroth, 2021. "How Much Information Is Incorporated into Financial Asset Prices? Experimental Evidence," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(9), pages 4412-4449.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial crisis; Great crash; 1929 Stock market crash; Technological displacement;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • N20 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • N12 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:snbeco:v:2:y:2022:i:5:d:10.1007_s43546-022-00208-3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.