IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/reaccs/v26y2021i1d10.1007_s11142-020-09558-5.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Connecting book rate of return to risk and return: the information conveyed by conservative accounting

Author

Listed:
  • Stephen H. Penman

    (Columbia University)

  • Xiao-Jun Zhang

    (University of California, Berkeley)

Abstract

This paper revises the standard interpretation of the book rate of return as a measure of profitability. Rather, due to conservative accounting, the book rate of return informs about risk and the expected return to the investor. In contrast to asset pricing research, where the book rate of return is viewed as positively associated with risk and expected stock returns, the paper demonstrates the opposite: with the effect of conservative accounting, the book rate of return is negatively associated with risk and expected return. The empirical analysis indicates that the market prices equities accordingly. It also shows how the previously documented positive correlation is due to a misunderstanding of accounting and how the book rate of return enters into asset pricing in a way that is consistent with the accounting.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephen H. Penman & Xiao-Jun Zhang, 2021. "Connecting book rate of return to risk and return: the information conveyed by conservative accounting," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 391-423, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:reaccs:v:26:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1007_s11142-020-09558-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s11142-020-09558-5
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11142-020-09558-5
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11142-020-09558-5?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pervin K. Shroff, 1995. "Determinants of the Returns†Earnings Correlation," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 12(1), pages 41-55, September.
    2. Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2002. "What Drives Firm‐Level Stock Returns?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(1), pages 233-264, February.
    3. Livingstone, Jl & Salamon, Gl, 1970. "Relationship Between Accounting And Internal Rate Of Return Measures - Synthesis And An Analysis," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(2), pages 199-216.
    4. Novy-Marx, Robert, 2013. "The other side of value: The gross profitability premium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-28.
    5. Kewei Hou & Chen Xue & Lu Zhang, 2015. "Editor's Choice Digesting Anomalies: An Investment Approach," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(3), pages 650-705.
    6. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 2015. "A five-factor asset pricing model," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(1), pages 1-22.
    7. Beaver, WH & Ryan, SG, 2000. "Biases and lags in book value and their effects on the ability of the book-to-market ratio to predict book return on equity," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(1), pages 127-148.
    8. Basu, Sanjoy, 1983. "The relationship between earnings' yield, market value and return for NYSE common stocks : Further evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 129-156, June.
    9. Rogerson, William P, 1997. "Intertemporal Cost Allocation and Managerial Investment Incentives: A Theory Explaining the Use of Economic Value Added as a Performance Measure," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(4), pages 770-795, August.
    10. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    11. Madhav V. Rajan & Stefan Reichelstein, 2009. "Depreciation Rules and the Relation between Marginal and Historical Cost," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(3), pages 823-865, June.
    12. Louis K. C. Chan & Josef Lakonishok & Theodore Sougiannis, 2001. "The Stock Market Valuation of Research and Development Expenditures," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(6), pages 2431-2456, December.
    13. Khan, Mozaffar & Watts, Ross L., 2009. "Estimation and empirical properties of a firm-year measure of accounting conservatism," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2-3), pages 132-150, December.
    14. Penman, Stephen & Zhang, Xiao-Jun, 2020. "A theoretical analysis connecting conservative accounting to the cost of capital," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1).
    15. Eli Amir & Yanling Guan & Gilad Livne, 2007. "The Association of R&D and Capital Expenditures with Subsequent Earnings Variability," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(1‐2), pages 222-246, January.
    16. Lyle, Matthew R. & Wang, Charles C.Y., 2015. "The cross section of expected holding period returns and their dynamics: A present value approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(3), pages 505-525.
    17. Maureen McNichols & Madhav V. Rajan & Stefan Reichelstein, 2014. "Conservatism Correction for the Market-To-Book Ratio and Tobin's q," CESifo Working Paper Series 4626, CESifo.
    18. Bronwyn H. Hall, 1993. "Industrial Research during the 1980s: Did the Rate of Return Fall?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 24(2 Microec), pages 289-343.
    19. Eli Amir & Yanling Guan & Gilad Livne, 2007. "The Association of R&D and Capital Expenditures with Subsequent Earnings Variability," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(1‐2), pages 222-246, January.
    20. Fisher, Franklin M & McGowan, John J, 1983. "On the Misuse of Accounting Rates of Return to Infer Monopoly Profits," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 82-97, March.
    21. William P. Rogerson, 2008. "Intertemporal Cost Allocation and Investment Decisions," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 116(5), pages 931-950, October.
    22. Allan C. Eberhart & William F. Maxwell & Akhtar R. Siddique, 2004. "An Examination of Long-Term Abnormal Stock Returns and Operating Performance Following R&D Increases," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(2), pages 623-650, April.
    23. Basu, S, 1977. "Investment Performance of Common Stocks in Relation to Their Price-Earnings Ratios: A Test of the Efficient Market Hypothesis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(3), pages 663-682, June.
    24. Lev, Baruch & Sougiannis, Theodore, 1996. "The capitalization, amortization, and value-relevance of R&D," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 107-138, February.
    25. Zhang, Xiao-Jun, 2000. "Conservative accounting and equity valuation," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 125-149, February.
    26. Baruch Lev & Bharat Sarath & Theodore Sougiannis, 2005. "R&D Reporting Biases and Their Consequences," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 22(4), pages 977-1026, December.
    27. Shumway, Tyler, 1997. "The Delisting Bias in CRSP Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 327-340, March.
    28. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 2006. "Profitability, investment and average returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(3), pages 491-518, December.
    29. Greenball, Mn, 1969. "Appraising Alternative Methods Of Accounting For Accelerated Tax Depreciation - Relative-Accuracy Approach," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(2), pages 262-289.
    30. Ball, Ray & Gerakos, Joseph & Linnainmaa, Juhani T. & Nikolaev, Valeri V., 2015. "Deflating profitability," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(2), pages 225-248.
    31. Merton H. Miller & Franco Modigliani, 1961. "Dividend Policy, Growth, and the Valuation of Shares," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34, pages 411-411.
    32. Jaffe, Jeffrey & Keim, Donald B & Westerfield, Randolph, 1989. " Earnings Yields, Market Values, and Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(1), pages 135-148, March.
    33. Ball, Ray & Gerakos, Joseph & Linnainmaa, Juhani T. & Nikolaev, Valeri, 2016. "Accruals, cash flows, and operating profitability in the cross section of stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(1), pages 28-45.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Stephen Penman, 2023. "Accounting for Intangible Assets: Thinking It Through," Australian Accounting Review, CPA Australia, vol. 33(1), pages 5-13, March.
    2. Stephen Penman & Julie Zhu & Haofei Wang, 2023. "The implied cost of capital: accounting for growth," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 61(3), pages 1029-1056, October.
    3. Huai Zhang & Jin Zhang, 2023. "Political corruption and accounting choices," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(3-4), pages 443-481, March.
    4. Penman, Stephen & Zhu, Julie, 2022. "An accounting-based asset pricing model and a fundamental factor," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kewei Hou & Chen Xue & Lu Zhang, 2017. "Replicating Anomalies," NBER Working Papers 23394, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Kewei Hou & Haitao Mo & Chen Xue & Lu Zhang, 2019. "Which Factors?," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 23(1), pages 1-35.
    3. Berggrun, Luis & Cardona, Emilio & Lizarzaburu, Edmundo, 2020. "Firm profitability and expected stock returns: Evidence from Latin America," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    4. Sara Kelly Anzinger & Chinmoy Ghosh & Milena Petrova, 2017. "The Other Side of Value: The Effect of Quality on Price and Return in Real Estate," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 54(3), pages 429-457, April.
    5. Adam Zaremba & Jacob Koby Shemer, 2018. "Price-Based Investment Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-319-91530-2, June.
    6. Geertsema, Paul & Lu, Helen, 2020. "The correlation structure of anomaly strategies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    7. Juhani T. Linnainmaa & Michael R. Roberts, 2016. "The History of the Cross Section of Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 22894, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Chue, Timothy K. & Xu, Jin Karen, 2022. "Profitability, asset investment, and aggregate stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    9. David Hirshleifer & Po-Hsuan Hsu & Dongmei Li, 2018. "Innovative Originality, Profitability, and Stock Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(7), pages 2553-2605.
    10. Lin, Qi, 2021. "The q5 model and its consistency with the intertemporal CAPM," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    11. Wahal, Sunil, 2019. "The profitability and investment premium: Pre-1963 evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(2), pages 362-377.
    12. Wang, Baolian, 2019. "The cash conversion cycle spread," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(2), pages 472-497.
    13. Dai, Yiqing & Haque, Tariq & Zurbruegg, Ralf, 2020. "Factor return forecasting using cashflow spreads," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 917-931.
    14. Atif Ellahie, 2021. "Earnings beta," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 81-122, March.
    15. Alexander Nezlobin & Madhav V. Rajan & Stefan Reichelstein, 2016. "Structural properties of the price-to-earnings and price-to-book ratios," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 438-472, June.
    16. Leung, Woon Sau & Evans, Kevin P. & Mazouz, Khelifa, 2020. "The R&D anomaly: Risk or mispricing?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    17. Gonçalves, Andrei S. & Leonard, Gregory, 2023. "The fundamental-to-market ratio and the value premium decline," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(2), pages 382-405.
    18. Clarke, Charles, 2022. "The level, slope, and curve factor model for stocks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(1), pages 159-187.
    19. Lu Zhang, 2017. "The Investment CAPM," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 23(4), pages 545-603, September.
    20. Ray Ball & Gil Sadka & Ayung Tseng, 2022. "Using accounting earnings and aggregate economic indicators to estimate firm-level systematic risk," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 607-646, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:reaccs:v:26:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1007_s11142-020-09558-5. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.