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Conservatism Correction for the Market-To-Book Ratio and Tobin's q

Author

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  • Maureen McNichols
  • Madhav V. Rajan
  • Stefan Reichelstein

Abstract

We decompose the market-to-book ratio into two additive components: a conservatism correction factor and a future-to-book ratio. The conservatism correction factor exceeds the benchmark value of one whenever the accounting for past transactions has been subject to an (unconditional) conservatism bias. The observed history of a firm’s past investments allows us to calculate the magnitude of its conservatism correction factor, resulting in an average value that is about two-thirds of the overall market-to-book ratio. We demonstrate that our measure of Tobin’s q, obtained as the market-to-book ratio divided by the conservatism correction factor, has greater explanatory power in predicting future investments than the market-to-book ratio by itself. Our model analysis derives a number of structural properties of the conservatism correction factor, including its sensitivity to growth in past investments, the percentage of investments in intangibles, and the firm’s cost of capital. We provide empirical support for these hypothesized structural properties.

Suggested Citation

  • Maureen McNichols & Madhav V. Rajan & Stefan Reichelstein, 2014. "Conservatism Correction for the Market-To-Book Ratio and Tobin's q," CESifo Working Paper Series 4626, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_4626
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    Cited by:

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    2. Stephen H. Penman & Xiao-Jun Zhang, 2021. "Connecting book rate of return to risk and return: the information conveyed by conservative accounting," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 391-423, March.
    3. Dmitry Livdan & Alexander Nezlobin, 2017. "Accounting rules, equity valuation, and growth options," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 1122-1155, September.
    4. Livdan, Dmitry & Nezlobin, Alexander, 2022. "Incentivizing irreversible investment," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 110531, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    5. Kousenidis, Dimitrios V. & Ladas, Anestis C. & Negakis, Christos I., 2014. "Accounting conservatism quality of accounting information and crash risk of stock prices," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 11(C), pages 120-137.
    6. Alexander Nezlobin & Madhav V. Rajan & Stefan Reichelstein, 2016. "Structural properties of the price-to-earnings and price-to-book ratios," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 438-472, June.
    7. Vasicek, Davor & Cicak, Josip, 2019. "Back To The Core: Alternative Performance Measurement," UTMS Journal of Economics, University of Tourism and Management, Skopje, Macedonia, vol. 10(2), pages 237-247.
    8. Nezlobin, Alexander & Sloan, Richard G. & Giedt, Jenny Zha, 2022. "Construct validity in accruals quality research," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 112165, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    9. Gu, Jing & Shi, Xinyu & Wang, Peini & Xu, Xun, 2022. "Examining the impact of upstream and downstream relationship stability and concentration on firms’ financial performance," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 229-242.
    10. Penman, Stephen & Zhang, Xiao-Jun, 2020. "A theoretical analysis connecting conservative accounting to the cost of capital," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1).

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    JEL classification:

    • M41 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - Accounting
    • L25 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Firm Performance
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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