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A new grey system approach to forecast closing price of Bitcoin, Bionic, Cardano, Dogecoin, Ethereum, XRP Cryptocurrencies

Author

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  • Pawan Kumar Singh

    (Thapar Institute of Engineering and Technology)

  • Alok Kumar Pandey

    (Banaras Hindu University)

  • S. C. Bose

    (Thapar Institute of Engineering and Technology)

Abstract

The current study uses the grey forecasting model, EGM (1, 1, α, θ), a generalized form of the classical, even form of grey forecasting approach, to forecast the closing price of Bitcoin (BTC), Bionic (BNC), Cardano (ADA), Dogecoin (DOGE), Ethereum (ETH), XRP (XRP) of cryptocurrencies based on the data from September 19, 2021, to September 29, 2021. The forecast was generated for September 30, 2021–October 07, 2021. Study revealed that the generalized model’s forecast accuracy is generally better than that of the classical model. The results are also compared with Linear Regression and Exponential Regression. This superiority results from using real past data in long-term forecasting, while the iterative forecasting approach uses the predicted values. Since forecast values are important in guiding future investments, decision-makers must consider various forecasting methods and select the best forecast performance after analyzing the comparative performance.

Suggested Citation

  • Pawan Kumar Singh & Alok Kumar Pandey & S. C. Bose, 2023. "A new grey system approach to forecast closing price of Bitcoin, Bionic, Cardano, Dogecoin, Ethereum, XRP Cryptocurrencies," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 2429-2446, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:qualqt:v:57:y:2023:i:3:d:10.1007_s11135-022-01463-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s11135-022-01463-0
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Grey system theory; Cryptocurrencies; Prediction; Time-series;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • C18 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Methodolical Issues: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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