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Cyber Attacks, Spillovers and Contagion in the Cryptocurrency Markets

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  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale
  • Woo-Young Kang
  • Fabio Spagnolo
  • Nicola Spagnolo

Abstract

This paper examines mean and volatility spillovers between three major cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Litecoin and Ethereum) and the role played by cyber attacks. Specifically, trivariate GARCH-BEKK models are estimated which include suitably defined dummies corresponding to different types, targets and number per day of cyber attacks. Significant dynamic linkages (interdependence) among the three cryptocurrencies under investigation are found in most cases when cyber attacks are taken into account, Bitcoin appearing to be the dominant one. Further, Wald tests for parameter shifts during episodes of turbulence resulting from cyber attacks provide evidence that the latter affect the transmission mechanism between cryptocurrency returns and volatilities (contagion). More precisely, cyber attacks appear to strengthen crossmarket linkages, thereby reducing portfolio diversification opportunities for cryptocurrency investors. Finally, the conditional correlation analysis confirms the previous findings.

Suggested Citation

  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Woo-Young Kang & Fabio Spagnolo & Nicola Spagnolo, 2020. "Cyber Attacks, Spillovers and Contagion in the Cryptocurrency Markets," CESifo Working Paper Series 8324, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_8324
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    2. Lee A. Smales, 2021. "Volatility Spillovers among Cryptocurrencies," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-12, October.
    3. Tian, Shu & Zhao, Bo & Olivares, Resi Ong, 2023. "Cybersecurity risks and central banks’ sentiment on central bank digital currency: Evidence from global cyberattacks," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    4. Carol Alexander & Daniel Heck & Andreas Kaeck, 2021. "The Role of Binance in Bitcoin Volatility Transmission," Papers 2107.00298, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2021.
    5. Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Hamouda, Foued & Karim, Sitara & Vigne, Samuel A., 2023. "Return and volatility spillovers among global assets: Comparing health crisis with geopolitical crisis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 557-575.
    6. Yousaf, Imran & Goodell, John W., 2023. "Reputational contagion and the fall of FTX: Examining the response of tokens to the delegitimization of FTT," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    7. Milunovich, George & Lee, Seung Ah, 2022. "Measuring the impact of digital exchange cyberattacks on Bitcoin Returns," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).
    8. Costantini, Mauro & Maaitah, Ahmad & Mishra, Tapas & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2023. "Bitcoin market networks and cyberattacks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 630(C).
    9. Bazán-Palomino, Walter, 2022. "Interdependence, contagion and speculative bubbles in cryptocurrency markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    10. Mensi, Walid & Al-Yahyaee, Khamis Hamed & Wanas Al-Jarrah, Idries Mohammad & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2021. "Does volatility connectedness across major cryptocurrencies behave the same at different frequencies? A portfolio risk analysis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 96-113.
    11. Kyriazis, Nikolaos & Papadamou, Stephanos & Tzeremes, Panayiotis & Corbet, Shaen, 2023. "Can cryptocurrencies provide a viable hedging mechanism for benchmark index investors?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    12. André D. Gimenes & Jéfferson A. Colombo & Imran Yousaf, 2023. "Store of value or speculative investment? Market reaction to corporate announcements of cryptocurrency acquisition," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-31, December.
    13. Ziyao Wang & Yufei Xia & Yating Fu & Ying Liu, 2023. "Volatility Spillover Dynamics and Determinants between FinTech and Traditional Financial Industry: Evidence from China," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(19), pages 1-23, September.
    14. Chu, Meifen, 2021. "Bitcoin and traditional currencies during the Covid-19 pandemic period," MPRA Paper 110117, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Mudassar Hasan & Muhammad Abubakr Naeem & Muhammad Arif & Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad & Xuan Vinh Vo, 2022. "Liquidity connectedness in cryptocurrency market," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-25, December.
    16. BRIK, Hatem & El OUAKDI, Jihene & FTITI, Zied, 2022. "Roles of stable versus nonstable cryptocurrencies in Bitcoin market dynamics," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    17. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Karikari, Nana Kwasi & Gil-Alana, Luis Alberiko, 2022. "The outbreak of COVID-19 and stock market liquidity: Evidence from emerging and developed equity markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    18. Florentina Șoiman & Mathis Mourey & Jean-Guillaume Dumas & Sonia Jimenez-Garces, 2021. "The forking effect," Working Papers hal-03216121, HAL.
    19. Yousaf, Imran & Goodell, John W., 2023. "Linkages between CBDC and cryptocurrency uncertainties, and digital payment stocks," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    20. Ye, Wuyi & Li, Mingge & Wu, Yuehua, 2022. "A novel estimation of time-varying quantile correlation for financial contagion detection," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    mean and volatility spillovers; contagion; cryptocurrencies; cyber attacks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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