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Identifying water resources management strategies in adaptation to climate change under uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • J. Sun

    (North China Electric Power University)

  • Y. P. Li

    (Beijing Normal University
    University of Regina)

  • X. W. Zhuang

    (North China Electric Power University)

  • S.W. Jin

    (North China Electric Power University)

  • G. H. Huang

    (University of Regina)

  • R. F. Feng

    (Canadian Light Source Inc.)

Abstract

In this study, an integrated simulation-based allocation modeling system (ISAMS) is developed for identifying water resources management strategies in response to climate change. The ISAMS incorporates global climate models (GCMs), a semi-distributed land use-based runoff process (SLURP) model, and a multistage interval-stochastic programming (MISP) approach within a general framework. The ISAMS can not only handle uncertainties expressed as probability distributions and interval values but also reveal climate change impacts on water resources allocation under different projections of GCMs. The ISAMS is then applied to the Kaidu-kongque watershed with cold arid characteristics in the Tarim River Basin (the largest inland watershed basin in China) for demonstrating its efficiency. Results reveal that different climate change models corresponding to various projections (e.g., precipitation and temperature) would lead to changed water resources allocation patterns. Variations in water availability and demand due to uncertainties could result in different water allocation targets and shortages. A variety of decision alternatives about water allocations adaptive to climate change are generated under combinations of different global climate models and ecological water release plans. These findings indicate that understanding the uncertainties in water resources system, building adaptive methods for generating sustainable water allocation patterns, and taking actions for mitigating water shortage problems are key adaptation strategies responding to climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • J. Sun & Y. P. Li & X. W. Zhuang & S.W. Jin & G. H. Huang & R. F. Feng, 2018. "Identifying water resources management strategies in adaptation to climate change under uncertainty," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 553-578, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:masfgc:v:23:y:2018:i:4:d:10.1007_s11027-017-9749-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s11027-017-9749-9
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Sun, J. & Li, Y.P. & Suo, C. & Liu, Y.R., 2019. "Impacts of irrigation efficiency on agricultural water-land nexus system management under multiple uncertainties—A case study in Amu Darya River basin, Central Asia," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 216(C), pages 76-88.
    2. Jing-Li Fan & Qian Wang & Xian Zhang, 2021. "A bibliometric analysis of the water-energy-food nexus based on the SCIE and SSCI database of the Web of Science," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 26(2), pages 1-26, February.
    3. Sun, J. & Li, Y.P. & Suo, C. & Liu, J., 2020. "Development of an uncertain water-food-energy nexus model for pursuing sustainable agricultural and electric productions," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    4. Fang Wan & Yu Wang & Xiangnan Zhou & Xiaokang Zheng & Jian Wu & Lingfeng Xiao, 2022. "Study on Balanced Allocation of Water Resources in the Yellow River Basin Based on Water Benefit Sharing," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(1), pages 1-15, December.

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