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Evaluating the Sensitivity of Projected Reservoir Reliability to the Choice of Climate Projection: A Case Study of Bull Run Watershed, Portland, Oregon

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  • Nima Fayaz

    (Syracuse University)

  • Laura E. Condon

    (University of Arizona)

  • David G. Chandler

    (Syracuse University)

Abstract

Climate change has the potential to alter the quantity and timing of runoff, which may pose significant challenges for reservoir management. One challenge is developing operating policies for an unknown and uncertain future. Here, we develop a suite of ‘optimal’ operating policies for the reservoir system of Portland, Oregon. We assess the sensitivity of projected reservoir reliability to the choice of GCMs and time periods used to develop each of our policies. Results indicate that, while different GCMs and fitting periods produce different optimal operating policies, when those policies are applied across all the other GCM scenarios, the overall projected reliability does not change due to the great variability between simulations. Across the simulations, we note a trend of decreasing reliability in the future which is not sensitive to the choice of GCM or fitting period. This indicates that the projected reliability is dominated by uncertainty in climate projections that cannot be mitigated by tuning operating policies to projected changes.

Suggested Citation

  • Nima Fayaz & Laura E. Condon & David G. Chandler, 2020. "Evaluating the Sensitivity of Projected Reservoir Reliability to the Choice of Climate Projection: A Case Study of Bull Run Watershed, Portland, Oregon," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(6), pages 1991-2009, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:34:y:2020:i:6:d:10.1007_s11269-020-02542-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-020-02542-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Xiao-jun Wang & Jian-yun Zhang & Shamsuddin Shahid & En-hong Guan & Yong-xiang Wu & Juan Gao & Rui-min He, 2016. "Adaptation to climate change impacts on water demand," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 81-99, January.
    2. Ignazio Giuntoli & Gabriele Villarini & Christel Prudhomme & David M. Hannah, 2018. "Uncertainties in projected runoff over the conterminous United States," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 150(3), pages 149-162, October.
    3. A. Kay & H. Davies & V. Bell & R. Jones, 2009. "Comparison of uncertainty sources for climate change impacts: flood frequency in England," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 92(1), pages 41-63, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. José M. Rodríguez-Flores & Jorge A. Valero Fandiño & Spencer A. Cole & Keyvan Malek & Tina Karimi & Harrison B. Zeff & Patrick M. Reed & Alvar Escriva-Bou & Josué Medellín-Azuara, 2022. "Global Sensitivity Analysis of a Coupled Hydro-Economic Model and Groundwater Restriction Assessment," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(15), pages 6115-6130, December.
    2. Ahmad Jafarzadeh & Mohsen Pourreza-Bilondi & Abbas Khashei Siuki & Javad Ramezani Moghadam, 2021. "Examination of Various Feature Selection Approaches for Daily Precipitation Downscaling in Different Climates," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(2), pages 407-427, January.

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