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Do high aspirations lead to better outcomes? Evidence from a longitudinal survey of adolescents in Peru

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Listed:
  • Carol Graham

    (The Brookings Institution
    University of Maryland)

  • Julia R. Pozuelo

    (University of Oxford
    University of Oxford
    University of Witwatersrand)

Abstract

Using a novel panel survey of relatively poor urban Peruvian adolescents, we explore the link between educational aspirations and propensity to invest in the future. Aspirations comprise hope and agency. We find remarkably high educational aspirations, even among relatively poor individuals and adolescents who were exposed to negative shocks, suggesting high levels of resilience. We also find high occupational aspirations and aspirations to migrate. High-aspiration respondents were also more likely to invest in their education and avoid risky behaviors. These are associations as we do not have enough data to establish causality, although we were able to control for within-person traits. Aspirations are stable over time and positively associated with personality traits such as self-efficacy and life satisfaction, which help explain their persistence over time. Our findings complement those of other recent studies that highlight the role of personality traits in addition to cognitive skills in long-term educational, health, and socioeconomic outcomes.

Suggested Citation

  • Carol Graham & Julia R. Pozuelo, 2023. "Do high aspirations lead to better outcomes? Evidence from a longitudinal survey of adolescents in Peru," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 36(3), pages 1099-1137, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jopoec:v:36:y:2023:i:3:d:10.1007_s00148-021-00881-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s00148-021-00881-y
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Adolescents; Aspirations; Human capital outcomes; Risky behaviors; Peru;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • I25 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Education and Economic Development
    • I3 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty

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