IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/gjofsm/v17y2016i2d10.1007_s40171-015-0115-z.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Integrated Forecasting Using the Discrete Wavelet Theory and Artificial Intelligence Techniques to Reduce the Bullwhip Effect in a Supply Chain

Author

Listed:
  • Lakhwinder Pal Singh

    (Dr BR Ambedkar National Institute of Technology)

  • Ravi Teja Challa

    (Dr BR Ambedkar National Institute of Technology)

Abstract

To enhance the commercial competitive advantage of a firm in a constantly changing business environment, it is very important to enhance the supply chain performance by making it more flexible to adopt any type of changes in dynamic business environment. To improve the supply chain performance and make it more flexible it is essential to control the order amplification or bullwhip effect (BWE) through various stages of supply chain and control the inventory costs by controlling net stock amplification (NSA). These tasks should be done by using accurate demand forecasting. The current study demonstrates a forecasting methodology about nonlinear customer demand in a multilevel supply chain (SC) structure through; integrated techniques of discrete wavelet theory and artificial intelligence techniques including artificial neural networks and adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system. The effectiveness of forecasting models to deal with nonlinear data and how they improved the flexibility of SC is demonstrated by calculating BWE and NSA for real world data.

Suggested Citation

  • Lakhwinder Pal Singh & Ravi Teja Challa, 2016. "Integrated Forecasting Using the Discrete Wavelet Theory and Artificial Intelligence Techniques to Reduce the Bullwhip Effect in a Supply Chain," Global Journal of Flexible Systems Management, Springer;Global Institute of Flexible Systems Management, vol. 17(2), pages 157-169, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:gjofsm:v:17:y:2016:i:2:d:10.1007_s40171-015-0115-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s40171-015-0115-z
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s40171-015-0115-z
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s40171-015-0115-z?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. H. Wong & Wai-Cheung Ip & Zhongjie Xie & Xueli Lui, 2003. "Modelling and forecasting by wavelets, and the application to exchange rates," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(5), pages 537-553.
    2. Tim Bollerslev & Julia Litvinova & George Tauchen, 2006. "Leverage and Volatility Feedback Effects in High-Frequency Data," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 4(3), pages 353-384.
    3. Duc, Truong Ton Hien & Luong, Huynh Trung & Kim, Yeong-Dae, 2008. "A measure of bullwhip effect in supply chains with a mixed autoregressive-moving average demand process," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 187(1), pages 243-256, May.
    4. Ozgur Kisi & Jalal Shiri, 2011. "Precipitation Forecasting Using Wavelet-Genetic Programming and Wavelet-Neuro-Fuzzy Conjunction Models," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(13), pages 3135-3152, October.
    5. Chakrabarty, Anindya & De, Anupam & Gunasekaran, Angappa & Dubey, Rameshwar, 2015. "Investment horizon heterogeneity and wavelet: Overview and further research directions," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 429(C), pages 45-61.
    6. Agrawal, Sunil & Sengupta, Raghu Nandan & Shanker, Kripa, 2009. "Impact of information sharing and lead time on bullwhip effect and on-hand inventory," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 192(2), pages 576-593, January.
    7. Hwarng, H. Brian, 2001. "Insights into neural-network forecasting of time series corresponding to ARMA(p,q) structures," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 273-289, June.
    8. Robert N. Boute & Marc R. Lambrecht, 2009. "Exploring the Bullwhip Effect by Means of Spreadsheet Simulation," INFORMS Transactions on Education, INFORMS, vol. 10(1), pages 1-9, September.
    9. Yousefi, Shahriar & Weinreich, Ilona & Reinarz, Dominik, 2005. "Wavelet-based prediction of oil prices," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 265-275.
    10. Zhang, Guoqiang & Eddy Patuwo, B. & Y. Hu, Michael, 1998. "Forecasting with artificial neural networks:: The state of the art," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 35-62, March.
    11. Xie, Ying & Petrovic, Dobrila & Burnham, Keith, 2006. "A heuristic procedure for the two-level control of serial supply chains under fuzzy customer demand," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(1), pages 37-50, July.
    12. Haven, Emmanuel & Liu, Xiaoquan & Shen, Liya, 2012. "De-noising option prices with the wavelet method," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 222(1), pages 104-112.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Marina Johnson & Rashmi Jain & Peggy Brennan-Tonetta & Ethne Swartz & Deborah Silver & Jessica Paolini & Stanislav Mamonov & Chelsey Hill, 2021. "Impact of Big Data and Artificial Intelligence on Industry: Developing a Workforce Roadmap for a Data Driven Economy," Global Journal of Flexible Systems Management, Springer;Global Institute of Flexible Systems Management, vol. 22(3), pages 197-217, September.
    2. Fan He & Xuansen He, 2019. "A Continuous Differentiable Wavelet Shrinkage Function for Economic Data Denoising," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 54(2), pages 729-761, August.
    3. Simonetto, Marco & Sgarbossa, Fabio & Battini, Daria & Govindan, Kannan, 2022. "Closed loop supply chains 4.0: From risks to benefits through advanced technologies. A literature review and research agenda," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 253(C).
    4. Lechtenberg, Sandra & Hellingrath, Bernd, 2021. "Applications of artificial intelligence in supply chain management: Identification of main research fields and greatest industry interests," ERCIS Working Papers 37, University of Münster, European Research Center for Information Systems (ERCIS).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nowotarski, Jakub & Tomczyk, Jakub & Weron, Rafał, 2013. "Robust estimation and forecasting of the long-term seasonal component of electricity spot prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 13-27.
    2. Lin, Ling & Jiang, Yong & Xiao, Helu & Zhou, Zhongbao, 2020. "Crude oil price forecasting based on a novel hybrid long memory GARCH-M and wavelet analysis model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 543(C).
    3. Joanna Janczura & Rafał Weron, 2012. "Efficient estimation of Markov regime-switching models: An application to electricity spot prices," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 96(3), pages 385-407, July.
    4. Sodhi, ManMohan S. & Tang, Christopher S., 2011. "The incremental bullwhip effect of operational deviations in an arborescent supply chain with requirements planning," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 215(2), pages 374-382, December.
    5. Jammazi, Rania & Aloui, Chaker, 2012. "Crude oil price forecasting: Experimental evidence from wavelet decomposition and neural network modeling," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 828-841.
    6. Karim, Muhammad Mahmudul & Kawsar, Najmul Haque & Ariff, Mohamed & Masih, Mansur, 2022. "Does implied volatility (or fear index) affect Islamic stock returns and conventional stock returns differently? Wavelet-based granger-causality, asymmetric quantile regression and NARDL approaches," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    7. Chakrabarty, Anindya & De, Anupam & Gunasekaran, Angappa & Dubey, Rameshwar, 2015. "Investment horizon heterogeneity and wavelet: Overview and further research directions," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 429(C), pages 45-61.
    8. Boryana Bogdanova & Ivan Ivanov, 2016. "A wavelet-based approach to the analysis and modelling of financial time series exhibiting strong long-range dependence: the case of Southeast Europe," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(4), pages 655-673, March.
    9. Fan, Ying & Liang, Qiang & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2008. "A generalized pattern matching approach for multi-step prediction of crude oil price," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 889-904, May.
    10. Rupesh Kumar Pati, 2014. "Modelling Bullwhip Effect in a Closed Loop Supply Chain with ARMA Demand," IIM Kozhikode Society & Management Review, , vol. 3(2), pages 149-164, July.
    11. Wang, Xun & Disney, Stephen M., 2016. "The bullwhip effect: Progress, trends and directions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 250(3), pages 691-701.
    12. Chatfield, Dean C. & Pritchard, Alan M., 2013. "Returns and the bullwhip effect," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 159-175.
    13. Milan Bašta, 2014. "Additive Decomposition and Boundary Conditions in Wavelet-Based Forecasting Approaches," Acta Oeconomica Pragensia, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2014(2), pages 48-70.
    14. Prashant K. Srivastava & Manika Gupta & Ujjwal Singh & Rajendra Prasad & Prem Chandra Pandey & A. S. Raghubanshi & George P. Petropoulos, 2021. "Sensitivity analysis of artificial neural network for chlorophyll prediction using hyperspectral data," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 5504-5519, April.
    15. Deniz Kenan Kılıç & Ömür Uğur, 2018. "Multiresolution analysis of S&P500 time series," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 260(1), pages 197-216, January.
    16. Nepal, Bimal & Murat, Alper & Babu Chinnam, Ratna, 2012. "The bullwhip effect in capacitated supply chains with consideration for product life-cycle aspects," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(2), pages 318-331.
    17. Christophe Chorro & Florian Ielpo & Benoît Sévi, 2017. "The contribution of jumps to forecasting the density of returns," Post-Print halshs-01442618, HAL.
    18. Huang, Shupei & An, Haizhong & Gao, Xiangyun & Sun, Xiaoqi, 2017. "Do oil price asymmetric effects on the stock market persist in multiple time horizons?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 185(P2), pages 1799-1808.
    19. Xilong Chen & Eric Ghysels, 2011. "News--Good or Bad--and Its Impact on Volatility Predictions over Multiple Horizons," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(1), pages 46-81, October.
    20. Balkin, Sandy, 2001. "On Forecasting Exchange Rates Using Neural Networks: P.H. Franses and P.V. Homelen, 1998, Applied Financial Economics, 8, 589-596," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 139-140.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:gjofsm:v:17:y:2016:i:2:d:10.1007_s40171-015-0115-z. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.