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The effect of neighbourhood mortality shocks on fertility preferences: a spatial econometric approach

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  • Nkechi Owoo
  • Samuel Agyei-Mensah
  • Emily Onuoha

Abstract

According to the demographic transition theory, fertility rates fall in response to declines in child mortality rates. Although national statistics indicate that child mortality rates have been declining over time, Ghana’s fertility rates appear to have stalled. This paper hypothesises that women’s fertility behaviours may be more responsive to child mortality experiences at more localised levels. Using all rounds of the Ghana Demographic and Health Surveys (1988–2008) and employing a variety of spatial and empirical estimation techniques, results indicate that in addition to own-child mortality, neighbourhood child mortality shocks are also a determinant of women’s fertility in Ghana. Women in neighbourhoods with large child mortality shocks may desire more children as an “insurance” against future losses, as a result of their increased perceptions of own-child mortality risks. Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Nkechi Owoo & Samuel Agyei-Mensah & Emily Onuoha, 2015. "The effect of neighbourhood mortality shocks on fertility preferences: a spatial econometric approach," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 16(6), pages 629-645, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:eujhec:v:16:y:2015:i:6:p:629-645
    DOI: 10.1007/s10198-014-0615-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Frans van Poppel & David Reher & Alberto Sanz-Gimeno & María Sanchez-Dominguez & Erik Beekink, 2012. "Mortality decline and reproductive change during the Dutch demographic transition," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 27(11), pages 299-338.
    2. Dalton Conley & Gordon C. McCord & Jeffrey D. Sachs, 2007. "Africa's Lagging Demographic Transition: Evidence from Exogenous Impacts of Malaria Ecology and Agricultural Technology," NBER Working Papers 12892, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Gary S. Becker, 1960. "An Economic Analysis of Fertility," NBER Chapters, in: Demographic and Economic Change in Developed Countries, pages 209-240, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Pritchett, Lant H. & DEC, 1994. "Desired fertility and the impact of population policies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1273, The World Bank.
    5. Gary S. Becker, 1981. "A Treatise on the Family," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number beck81-1, March.
    6. Gary S. Becker & H. Gregg Lewis, 1974. "Interaction between Quantity and Quality of Children," NBER Chapters, in: Economics of the Family: Marriage, Children, and Human Capital, pages 81-90, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Daniel Jordan Smith, 2004. "Contradictions in Nigeria's Fertility Transition: The Burdens and Benefits of Having People," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 30(2), pages 221-238, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Sellers, Samuel & Gray, Clark, 2019. "Climate shocks constrain human fertility in Indonesia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 357-369.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fertility intentions; Child mortality; Spatial econometrics; Neighbourhood shocks; Demographic transition; Ghana; D1; I1; J1; C4;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D1 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior
    • I1 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health
    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • C4 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics

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