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Do you feel the heat around the corner? The effect of weather on crime

Author

Listed:
  • Nadezhda Baryshnikova

    (University of Adelaide)

  • Shannon Davidson

    (University of Otago)

  • Dennis Wesselbaum

    (University of Otago)

Abstract

In this paper, we study the weather–crime relationship using a unique high-frequency, city-level data set for the USA with 2.4 mil. observations. In contrast to the existing literature often using daily data, we match hourly observations of weather and crime. Our results show that using daily observations overestimates the effect of temperature and underestimates the effect of precipitation on crime and leads to different conclusions about the significance of variables. In addition, we document evidence for a nonlinear relationship between weather variables and crime. Again, results differ greatly between daily and hourly observations.

Suggested Citation

  • Nadezhda Baryshnikova & Shannon Davidson & Dennis Wesselbaum, 2022. "Do you feel the heat around the corner? The effect of weather on crime," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(1), pages 179-199, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:63:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1007_s00181-021-02130-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s00181-021-02130-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ranson, Matthew, 2014. "Crime, weather, and climate change," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 67(3), pages 274-302.
    2. Gary S. Becker, 1974. "Crime and Punishment: An Economic Approach," NBER Chapters, in: Essays in the Economics of Crime and Punishment, pages 1-54, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2014. "What Do We Learn from the Weather? The New Climate-Economy Literature," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(3), pages 740-798, September.
    4. Brian Jacob & Lars Lefgren & Enrico Moretti, 2007. "The Dynamics of Criminal Behavior: Evidence from Weather Shocks," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 42(3).
    5. Heilmann, Kilian & Kahn, Matthew E. & Tang, Cheng Keat, 2021. "The urban crime and heat gradient in high and low poverty areas," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    6. James Horrocks & Andrea Kutinova Menclova, 2011. "The effects of weather on crime," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(3), pages 231-254, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Vanessa Azevedo & Mariana Magalhães & Daniela Paulo & Rui Leandro Maia & Gisela M. Oliveira & Maria Simas Guerreiro & Ana Isabel Sani & Laura M. Nunes, 2021. "Temporal Variability of Theft Types in the Historic Centre of Porto," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-12, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Crime; Nonlinearity; Weather;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C55 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Large Data Sets: Modeling and Analysis
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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