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The urban crime and heat gradient in high and low poverty areas

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  • Heilmann, Kilian
  • Kahn, Matthew E.
  • Tang, Cheng Keat

Abstract

Using spatially disaggregated daily crime data for the City of Los Angeles, this paper estimates the impact of ambient temperature on crime, and how this relationship varies across neighborhoods. Our estimates suggest that, relative to cooler days, overall crime rates are 1.72% and 1.90% higher when daily maximum temperature exceeds 75 and 90 degrees Fahrenheit respectively. This heat-crime relationship is much stronger in low-income neighborhoods, and is largely driven by non-pecuniary crimes of passion, such as domestic crimes and crimes against intimate partners. Using internal policing data, we find that the surge in crime is not a result of reduced policing effort in low-income areas during hot days. Instead, we document that characteristics of the built environment such as housing age and urban greenery are highly correlated with the slope of the heat-crime relationship. Our estimates suggest that the monetary cost of heat-induced crime incurred by the highest poverty neighborhoods is five times larger than that incurred by more affluent areas, highlighting the starkly differential impact of extreme weather even over small geographies within cities.

Suggested Citation

  • Heilmann, Kilian & Kahn, Matthew E. & Tang, Cheng Keat, 2021. "The urban crime and heat gradient in high and low poverty areas," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:pubeco:v:197:y:2021:i:c:s004727272100044x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2021.104408
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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. JHU's 21st Century Cities Initiative
      by Matthew E. Kahn in Environmental and Urban Economics on 2019-07-26 13:55:00
    2. How Does Applied Microeconomic Research Accelerate Climate Change Adaptation?
      by Matthew E. Kahn in Environmental and Urban Economics on 2021-05-13 14:39:00

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    5. Pierre Magontier, Maximilian v. Ehrlich, Markus Schl pfer, 2022. "The Fragility of Urban Social Networks - Mobility as a City Glue -," Diskussionsschriften credresearchpaper38, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft - CRED.
    6. Vu Thuy Huong Le & Jesse D. Berman & Quynh Anh Tran & Elizabeth V. Wattenberg & Bruce H. Alexander, 2022. "The Effects of Daily Temperature on Crime Events in Urban Hanoi, Vietnam Using Seven Years of Data (2013–2019)," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(21), pages 1-11, October.
    7. Brüderle, Mirjam Anna & Peters, Jörg & Roberts, Gareth, 2022. "Weather and crime: Cautious evidence from South Africa," Ruhr Economic Papers 940, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    8. Behrer,Arnold Patrick & Bolotnyy,Valentin, 2022. "Heat, Crime, and Punishment," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9909, The World Bank.
    9. Sefa Awaworyi Churchill & Russell Smyth & Trong‐Anh Trinh, 2023. "Crime, Weather and Climate Change in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 99(324), pages 84-107, March.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Climate change; Crime; Policing; Built environment; Adaptation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
    • R1 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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