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Real-time US GDP gap properties using Hamilton’s regression-based filter

Author

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  • Kristian Jönsson

    (Sveriges Riksbank)

Abstract

It has been previously documented that the Hodrick–Prescott (HP) filter exhibits real-time instability such that the estimates of trend and cycle components from an aggregate time series are revised both as more data become available and previously available data are revised. An alternative to the HP filter has recently been suggested by Hamilton (Rev Econ Stat 100(5):831–843, 2018). The current article investigates and compares the HP and the Hamilton filters with respect to real-time stability in US GDP gap estimation. The results reveal that the Hamilton filter outperforms the HP filter when it comes to real-time revisions. The source of the inferior performance of the HP filter is found to be the fact that component estimates close to the end of the sample are revised to a large extent for the HP filter even when only a few more data points are added to the sample.

Suggested Citation

  • Kristian Jönsson, 2020. "Real-time US GDP gap properties using Hamilton’s regression-based filter," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(1), pages 307-314, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:59:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1007_s00181-019-01631-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s00181-019-01631-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 2002. "The Unreliability of Output-Gap Estimates in Real Time," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(4), pages 569-583, November.
    2. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Musso, Alberto, 2011. "The reliability of real-time estimates of the euro area output gap," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1842-1856, July.
    3. James D. Hamilton, 2018. "Why You Should Never Use the Hodrick-Prescott Filter," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 100(5), pages 831-843, December.
    4. Mise, Emi & Kim, Tae-Hwan & Newbold, Paul, 2005. "On suboptimality of the Hodrick-Prescott filter at time series endpoints," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 53-67, March.
    5. Cayen, Jean-Philippe & van Norden, Simon, 2005. "The reliability of Canadian output-gap estimates," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 373-393, December.
    6. Adriana Cornea-Madeira, 2017. "The Explicit Formula for the Hodrick-Prescott Filter in a Finite Sample," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 99(2), pages 314-318, May.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Yahya, Farzan & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2023. "Disentangling the asymmetric effect of financialization on the green output gap," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycles; HP filter; Recursive estimation; Real-time revisions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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