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Twins Support the Absence of Parity-Dependent Fertility Control in Pretransition Populations

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  • Gregory Clark

    (University of California, Davis
    London School of Economics, and Center for Economic Policy Research)

  • Neil Cummins

    (London School of Economics, and Center for Economic Policy Research)

  • Matthew Curtis

    (University of California, Davis)

Abstract

A conclusion of the European Fertility Project in 1986 was that pretransition populations mostly displayed natural fertility, where parity-dependent birth control was absent. This conclusion has recently been challenged for England by new empirical results and has also been widely rejected by theorists of long-run economic growth, where pre-industrial fertility control is integral to most models. In this study, we use the accident of twin births to show that for three Western European–derived pre-industrial populations—namely, England (1730–1879), France (1670–1788), and Québec (1621–1835)—we find no evidence for parity-dependent control of marital fertility. If a twin was born in any of these populations, family size increased by 1 compared with families with a singleton birth at the same parity and mother age, with no reduction of subsequent fertility. Numbers of children surviving to age 14 also increased. Twin births also show no differential effect on fertility when they occurred at high parities; this finding is in contrast to populations where fertility is known to have been controlled by at least some families, such as in England, 1900–1949, where a twin birth increased average births per family by significantly less than 1.

Suggested Citation

  • Gregory Clark & Neil Cummins & Matthew Curtis, 2020. "Twins Support the Absence of Parity-Dependent Fertility Control in Pretransition Populations," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 57(4), pages 1571-1595, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:demogr:v:57:y:2020:i:4:d:10.1007_s13524-020-00898-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s13524-020-00898-0
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    2. Kumon, Yuzuru, 2022. "How Landownership Equality Created a Low Wage Society: Pre-industrial Japan, 1600-1870," IAST Working Papers 22-138, Institute for Advanced Study in Toulouse (IAST).
    3. Francisco J Beltrán Tapia & Francisco J Marco-Gracia, 2022. "Death, sex, and fertility: female infanticide in rural Spain, 1750–1950 [Son targeting fertility behaviour: some consequences and determinants]," European Review of Economic History, European Historical Economics Society, vol. 26(2), pages 234-254.
    4. Ian J. Rickard & Colin Vullioud & François Rousset & Erik Postma & Samuli Helle & Virpi Lummaa & Ritva Kylli & Jenni E. Pettay & Eivin Røskaft & Gine R. Skjærvø & Charlotte Störmer & Eckart Voland & D, 2022. "Mothers with higher twinning propensity had lower fertility in pre-industrial Europe," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-12, December.
    5. Matthew Curtis, 2022. "The her in inheritance: how marriage matching has always mattered, Quebec 1800-1970," Working Papers ECARES 2022-38, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fertility; Family planning; Natural fertility; Economic history; Economic growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • N33 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - Europe: Pre-1913
    • N31 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - U.S.; Canada: Pre-1913

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