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How Has Elderly Migration Changed in the Twenty-First Century? What the Data Can—and Cannot—Tell Us

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  • Karen Smith Conway

    (University of New Hampshire)

  • Jonathan C. Rork

    (Reed College)

Abstract

Interstate elderly migration has strong implications for state tax policies and health care systems, yet little is known about how it has changed in the twenty-first century. Its relative rarity requires a large data set with which to construct reliable measures, and the replacement of the U.S. Census long form (CLF) with the American Community Survey (ACS) has made such updates difficult. Two commonly used alternative migration data sources—the Current Population Survey (CPS) and the Statistics of Income (SOI) program of the Internal Revenue Service (IRS)—suffer serious limitations in studying the migration of any subpopulation, including the elderly. Our study informs migration research in the post-2000 era by identifying methodological differences between data sources and devising strategies for reconciling the CLF and ACS. Our investigation focusing on the elderly suggests that the ACS can generate comparable migration data that reveal a continuation of previously identified geographic patterns as well as changes unique to the 2000s. However, its changed definition of residence and survey timing leaves us unable to construct a comparable national migration rate, suggesting that one must use national trends in the smaller CPS to investigate whether elderly migration has increased or decreased in the twenty-first century.

Suggested Citation

  • Karen Smith Conway & Jonathan C. Rork, 2016. "How Has Elderly Migration Changed in the Twenty-First Century? What the Data Can—and Cannot—Tell Us," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 53(4), pages 1011-1025, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:demogr:v:53:y:2016:i:4:d:10.1007_s13524-016-0477-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s13524-016-0477-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Greg Kaplan & Sam Schulhofer-Wohl, 2012. "Interstate Migration Has Fallen Less Than You Think: Consequences of Hot Deck Imputation in the Current Population Survey," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 49(3), pages 1061-1074, August.
    2. Raven Molloy & Christopher L. Smith & Abigail Wozniak, 2011. "Internal Migration in the United States," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 25(3), pages 173-196, Summer.
    3. Conway, Karen Smith & Rork, Jonathan C., 2012. "No Country for Old Men (Or Women) — Do State Tax Policies Drive Away the Elderly?," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 65(2), pages 313-356, June.
    4. Rachel S. Franklin & David A. Plane, 2006. "Pandora’s Box: The Potential and Peril of Migration Data from the American Community Survey," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 29(3), pages 231-246, July.
    5. Paul Auken & Roger Hammer & Paul Voss & Daniel Veroff, 2006. "The American Community Survey in counties with “seasonal” populations," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 25(3), pages 275-292, June.
    6. Andrei Rogers & James Raymer & K. Bruce Newbold, 2003. "Reconciling and translating migration data collected over time intervals of differing widths," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 37(4), pages 581-601, December.
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    8. Julie F. Sergeant & David J. Ekerdt & Rosemary Chapin, 2008. "Measurement of Late-Life Residential Relocation: Why Are Rates for Such a Manifest Event So Varied?," The Journals of Gerontology: Series B, The Gerontological Society of America, vol. 63(2), pages 92-98.
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    Cited by:

    1. Karen Smith Conway & Jonathan C. Rork, 2022. "On Measuring U.S Interstate Migration with Moving Van Data," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 41(4), pages 1431-1449, August.
    2. Thomas B. Foster & Mark J. Ellis & Lee Fiorio, 2018. "Foreign-born and native-born migration in the U.S.: evidence from linked IRS administrative and census survey records," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 35(4), pages 467-498, December.
    3. Ben Brewer & Karen Smith Conway & Jonathan C. Rork, 2022. "Do income tax breaks for the elderly affect economic growth?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 40(1), pages 7-27, January.

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    Keywords

    Interstate elderly migration; Census data;

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