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On Measuring U.S Interstate Migration with Moving Van Data

Author

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  • Karen Smith Conway

    (University of New Hampshire)

  • Jonathan C. Rork

    (Reed College)

Abstract

For many years, U.S. moving van companies have released reports on interstate migration patterns based on company data. These reports typically come out within a few weeks of the year’s end, much sooner than more conventional, Census-based measures, and they tend to emphasize big changes, leading them to receive perhaps outsized attention from the media and policymakers. Yet, little is known about how closely this van data corresponds to or is a valid predictor of more conventional migration measures. To close this gap, this research gathers publicly available moving van data and combines it with Census migration measures constructed from the American Community Survey (ACS) to estimate migration models and forecast out of sample. The longest time frame is 2006–2019, when annual data from the ACS and two van companies (United and Atlas) are available, but shorter time frames (2011+) when data from more van companies become available are also examined. Results show a strong correspondence between van data and ACS migration, even in models that control for longtime migration patterns via state-level fixed effects and time trends. However, the additional value of van data in explaining or predicting migration is modest and has waned in recent years. Limiting our analyses to high income migrants does not improve its value either. Moreover, the big changes identified in either the raw van data or with our forecasts do not carry over to ACS migration. This research therefore cautions strongly against using van data to draw conclusions about changing US migration.

Suggested Citation

  • Karen Smith Conway & Jonathan C. Rork, 2022. "On Measuring U.S Interstate Migration with Moving Van Data," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 41(4), pages 1431-1449, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:poprpr:v:41:y:2022:i:4:d:10.1007_s11113-022-09713-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s11113-022-09713-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Alexander C. Vias, 2010. "The Influence of Booms and Busts in the U.S. Economy on the Interstate Migration System," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(1), pages 115-135, March.
    2. Paul Auken & Roger Hammer & Paul Voss & Daniel Veroff, 2006. "The American Community Survey in counties with “seasonal” populations," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 25(3), pages 275-292, June.
    3. Karen Smith Conway & Jonathan C. Rork, 2016. "How Has Elderly Migration Changed in the Twenty-First Century? What the Data Can—and Cannot—Tell Us," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 53(4), pages 1011-1025, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Anqi Xu, 2023. "Spatial Patterns and Determinants of Inter-county Migration in California: A Multilevel Gravity Model Approach," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 42(3), pages 1-33, June.

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