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The likelihood of holding outdoor skating marathons in the Netherlands as a policy-relevant indicator of climate change

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  • H. Visser
  • A. Petersen

Abstract

“When I was born – in 1956 – the chance of realizing a Frisian Eleven City Ice Skating Marathon in Netherlands was 1 in 4. When my daughter was born – in 1999 – this chance had diminished to 1 in 10. An enormous change in one generation!” This quote was taken from a speech by J. P. Balkenende, prime minister of the Netherlands. It illustrates how a seemingly odd indicator of climate change, the chance of organizing large-scale outdoor ice-skating marathons, can play a role in the public and political debate on climate change. Outdoor skating has a very strong public appeal in the Netherlands, and the diminishing chances of holding such events provide an additional Dutch motive for introducing climate-policy measures. Here, “ice skating marathons” are approached from three angles: (1) the societal/political angle as described above, (2) the more technical angle, of how to derive annual chances for holding large-scale marathons such as the Eleven City Marathon (‘Elfstedentocht’), and (3) the role of (communicating) uncertainties. Since the statistical approach was developed in response to communicational needs, both statistical and communicative aspects are reported on in this article. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2009

Suggested Citation

  • H. Visser & A. Petersen, 2009. "The likelihood of holding outdoor skating marathons in the Netherlands as a policy-relevant indicator of climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 93(1), pages 39-54, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:93:y:2009:i:1:p:39-54
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-008-9498-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Durbin, James & Koopman, Siem Jan, 2012. "Time Series Analysis by State Space Methods," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 2, number 9780199641178.
    2. Genshiro Kitagawa, 1981. "A Nonstationary Time Series Model And Its Fitting By A Recursive Filter," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(2), pages 103-116, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Martin Falk & Eva Hagsten, 2017. "Climate change threats to one of the world’s largest cross-country skiing races," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 143(1), pages 59-71, July.
    2. Cheryl Mallen & Greg Dingle, 2021. "Organizing Sport for Climate Related Adaptations: Lessons from the Water and Forestry Industries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(18), pages 1-14, September.
    3. Geert Jan Oldenborgh & Karin Wiel & Sarah Kew & Sjoukje Philip & Friederike Otto & Robert Vautard & Andrew King & Fraser Lott & Julie Arrighi & Roop Singh & Maarten Aalst, 2021. "Pathways and pitfalls in extreme event attribution," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 166(1), pages 1-27, May.

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