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EMF-33 insights on bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS)

Author

Listed:
  • Matteo Muratori

    (National Renewable Energy Laboratory (analysis performed while at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory))

  • Nico Bauer

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK))

  • Steven K. Rose

    (Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI))

  • Marshall Wise

    (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory – Joint Global Change Research Institute)

  • Vassilis Daioglou

    (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
    Utrecht University)

  • Yiyun Cui

    (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory – Joint Global Change Research Institute)

  • Etsushi Kato

    (Institute of Applied Energy)

  • Matthew Gidden

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA))

  • Jessica Strefler

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK))

  • Shinichiro Fujimori

    (Kyoto University
    National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES))

  • Ronald D. Sands

    (U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service)

  • Detlef P. Vuuren

    (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
    Utrecht University)

  • John Weyant

    (Stanford University)

Abstract

This paper explores the potential role of bioenergy coupled to carbon dioxide (CO2) capture and storage (BECCS) in long-term global scenarios. We first validate past insights regarding the potential use of BECCS in achieving climate goals based on results from 11 integrated assessment models (IAMs) that participated in the 33rd study of the Stanford Energy Modeling Forum (EMF-33). As found in previous studies, our results consistently project large-scale cost-effective BECCS deployment. However, we also find a strong synergistic nexus between CCS and biomass, with bioenergy the preferred fuel for CCS as the climate constraint increases. Specifically, the share of bioenergy that is coupled to CCS technologies increases since CCS effectively enhances the emissions mitigation capacity of bioenergy. For the models that include BECCS technologies across multiple sectors, there is significant deployment in conjunction with liquid fuel or hydrogen production to decarbonize the transportation sector. Using a wide set of scenarios, we find carbon removal to be crucial to achieving goals consistent with 1.5 °C warming. However, we find earlier BECCS deployment but not necessarily greater use in the long-term since ultimately deployment is limited by economic competition with other carbon-free technologies, especially in the electricity sector, by land-use competition (especially with food) affecting biomass feedstock availability and price, and by carbon storage limitations. The extent of BECCS deployment varies based on model assumptions, with BECCS deployment competitive in some models below carbon prices of 100 US$/tCO2. Without carbon removal, 2 °C is infeasible in some models, while those that solve find similar levels of bioenergy use but substantially greater mitigation costs. Overall, the paper provides needed transparency regarding BECCS’ role, and results highlight a strong nexus between bioenergy and CCS, and a large reliance on not-yet-commercial BECCS technologies for achieving climate goals.

Suggested Citation

  • Matteo Muratori & Nico Bauer & Steven K. Rose & Marshall Wise & Vassilis Daioglou & Yiyun Cui & Etsushi Kato & Matthew Gidden & Jessica Strefler & Shinichiro Fujimori & Ronald D. Sands & Detlef P. Vuu, 2020. "EMF-33 insights on bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS)," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(3), pages 1621-1637, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:163:y:2020:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-020-02784-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02784-5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. David Klein & Gunnar Luderer & Elmar Kriegler & Jessica Strefler & Nico Bauer & Marian Leimbach & Alexander Popp & Jan Dietrich & Florian Humpenöder & Hermann Lotze-Campen & Ottmar Edenhofer, 2014. "The value of bioenergy in low stabilization scenarios: an assessment using REMIND-MAgPIE," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 123(3), pages 705-718, April.
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    5. Nico Bauer & Steven K. Rose & Shinichiro Fujimori & Detlef P. van Vuuren & John Weyant & Marshall Wise & Yiyun Cui & Vassilis Daioglou & Matthew J. Gidden & Etsushi Kato & Alban Kitous & Florian Lebla, 2018. "Global energy sector emission reductions and bioenergy use: overview of the bioenergy demand phase of the EMF-33 model comparison," Post-Print hal-01972038, HAL.
    6. Barbara Koelbl & Machteld Broek & André Faaij & Detlef Vuuren, 2014. "Uncertainty in Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) deployment projections: a cross-model comparison exercise," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 123(3), pages 461-476, April.
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    9. Steven Rose & Elmar Kriegler & Ruben Bibas & Katherine Calvin & Alexander Popp & Detlef Vuuren & John Weyant, 2014. "Bioenergy in energy transformation and climate management," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 123(3), pages 477-493, April.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Philipp Günther & Felix Ekardt, 2022. "Human Rights and Large-Scale Carbon Dioxide Removal: Potential Limits to BECCS and DACCS Deployment," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-29, November.
    2. Qing Wang & Hanbing Xiong & Tingzhen Ming, 2022. "Methods of Large-Scale Capture and Removal of Atmospheric Greenhouse Gases," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(18), pages 1-5, September.
    3. Florian Leblanc & Ruben Bibas & Silvana Mima & Matteo Muratori & Shogo Sakamoto & Fuminori Sano & Nico Bauer & Vassilis Daioglou & Shinichiro Fujimori & Matthew J. Gidden & Estsushi Kato & Steven K. R, 2022. "The contribution of bioenergy to the decarbonization of transport: a multi-model assessment," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 170(3), pages 1-21, February.
    4. Arent, Douglas J. & Green, Peter & Abdullah, Zia & Barnes, Teresa & Bauer, Sage & Bernstein, Andrey & Berry, Derek & Berry, Joe & Burrell, Tony & Carpenter, Birdie & Cochran, Jaquelin & Cortright, Ran, 2022. "Challenges and opportunities in decarbonizing the U.S. energy system," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    5. Florian Leblanc & Ruben Bibas & Silvana Mima & Matteo Muratori & Shogo Sakamoto & Fuminori Sano & Nico Bauer & Vassilis Daioglou & Shinichiro Fujimori & Matthew J Gidden & Estsushi Kato & Steven K Ros, 2022. "The contribution of bioenergy to the decarbonization of transport: a multi-model assessment," Post-Print hal-03558507, HAL.
    6. Matamala, Yolanda & Flores, Francisco & Arriet, Andrea & Khan, Zarrar & Feijoo, Felipe, 2023. "Probabilistic feasibility assessment of sequestration reliance for climate targets," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 272(C).
    7. Xu Deng & Fei Teng & Minpeng Chen & Zhangliu Du & Bin Wang & Renqiang Li & Pan Wang, 2024. "Exploring negative emission potential of biochar to achieve carbon neutrality goal in China," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, December.
    8. Guo, Jian-Xin & Tan, Xianchun & Gu, Baihe & Zhu, Kaiwei, 2022. "Integration of supply chain management of hybrid biomass power plant with carbon capture and storage operation," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 1055-1065.
    9. Vassilis Daioglou & Steven K. Rose & Nico Bauer & Alban Kitous & Matteo Muratori & Fuminori Sano & Shinichiro Fujimori & Matthew J. Gidden & Etsushi Kato & Kimon Keramidas & David Klein & Florian Lebl, 2020. "Bioenergy technologies in long-run climate change mitigation: results from the EMF-33 study," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(3), pages 1603-1620, December.
    10. Steven K Rose & Nico Bauer & Alexander Popp & John Weyant & Shinichiro Fujimori & Petr Havlik & Marshall Wise & Detlef P Vuuren, 2020. "An overview of the Energy Modeling Forum 33rd study: assessing large-scale global bioenergy deployment for managing climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(3), pages 1539-1551, December.
    11. Günther, Philipp & Ekardt, Felix, 2022. "Human Rights and Large-Scale Carbon Dioxide Removal: Potential Limits to BECCS and DACCS Deployment," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 11(12), pages 1-29.

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