IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/climat/v162y2020i3d10.1007_s10584-020-02786-3.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Can stratospheric geoengineering alleviate global warming-induced changes in deciduous fruit cultivation? The case of Himachal Pradesh (India)

Author

Listed:
  • Jyoti Singh

    (Indian Institute of Technology Delhi)

  • Sandeep Sahany

    (Indian Institute of Technology Delhi
    Centre for Climate Research)

  • Alan Robock

    (Rutgers University)

Abstract

Using Hadley Global Environment Model 2 - Earth System and Max Planck Institute Earth System Model simulations, we assess the impact of global warming and stratospheric geoengineering on deciduous fruit production in Himachal Pradesh (the second-largest apple-producing state in India). The impacts have been assessed for the Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 (RCP4.5) global warming scenario, and a corresponding geoengineered scenario (G3) from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project, in which stratospheric aerosols are increased for 50 years from 2020 through 2069 to balance the global warming radiative forcing, and then aerosol precursor emissions are terminated. We used the period 2055–2069 (with the largest geoengineering forcing) and the period 2075–2089 (beginning 5 years into the termination phase) and evaluated winter chill and growing season heat accumulation. We found that although stratospheric geoengineering would be able to suppress the increase in temperature under an RCP4.5 scenario to some extent during both switch-on and switch-off periods, if the geoengineering was terminated, the rate of temperature increase would be higher than RCP4.5. The agroclimatically suitable area is projected to shift northeastwards (to higher elevations) under RCP4.5 as well as G3 during both periods. However, during the switched on period, geoengineering would restrict the shift, and areas of Shimla and Mandi districts (most suitable under the current climate) would not be lost due to global warming. Even during the switched off period, before the climate returned to RCP4.5 levels, the above areas would, although to a lesser extent, have reduced harmful climate effects from global warming. However, the area of suitable land (the intersection of soil and agroclimatic suitability) would decrease in both periods for RCP4.5 as well as G3, because as more high-elevation regions become agroclimatically suitable, they do not have suitable soils to support cultivation. Geoengineering could benefit deciduous fruit production by reducing the intensity of global warming; however, if geoengineering was terminated abruptly, the rate of change in temperature would be quite high. This could lead to a rapid change in land suitability and might result in total crop failure in a shorter period compared to RCP4.5.

Suggested Citation

  • Jyoti Singh & Sandeep Sahany & Alan Robock, 2020. "Can stratospheric geoengineering alleviate global warming-induced changes in deciduous fruit cultivation? The case of Himachal Pradesh (India)," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(3), pages 1323-1343, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:162:y:2020:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-020-02786-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02786-3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-020-02786-3
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10584-020-02786-3?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michael E. Mann & Raymond S. Bradley & Malcolm K. Hughes, 1998. "Global-scale temperature patterns and climate forcing over the past six centuries," Nature, Nature, vol. 392(6678), pages 779-787, April.
    2. João A. Santos & Ricardo Costa & Helder Fraga, 2017. "Climate change impacts on thermal growing conditions of main fruit species in Portugal," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 140(2), pages 273-286, January.
    3. J. Pongratz & D. B. Lobell & L. Cao & K. Caldeira, 2012. "Crop yields in a geoengineered climate," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(2), pages 101-105, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Colin J. Carlson & Rita Colwell & Mohammad Sharif Hossain & Mohammed Mofizur Rahman & Alan Robock & Sadie J. Ryan & Mohammad Shafiul Alam & Christopher H. Trisos, 2022. "Solar geoengineering could redistribute malaria risk in developing countries," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wylie Carr & Christopher Preston & Laurie Yung & Bronislaw Szerszynski & David Keith & Ashley Mercer, 2013. "Public engagement on solar radiation management and why it needs to happen now," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 121(3), pages 567-577, December.
    2. Seth D. Baum & Timothy M. Maher & Jacob Haqq-Misra, 2013. "Double catastrophe: intermittent stratospheric geoengineering induced by societal collapse," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 33(1), pages 168-180, March.
    3. Fabien Candau & Tchapo Gbandi, 2023. "When Climate Change Determines International Agreements: Evidence from Water Treaties," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 85(3), pages 587-614, August.
    4. Alejandro del Pozo & Nidia Brunel-Saldias & Alejandra Engler & Samuel Ortega-Farias & Cesar Acevedo-Opazo & Gustavo A. Lobos & Roberto Jara-Rojas & Marco A. Molina-Montenegro, 2019. "Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Strategies of Agriculture in Mediterranean-Climate Regions (MCRs)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-16, May.
    5. Heutel, Garth & Moreno-Cruz, Juan & Shayegh, Soheil, 2016. "Climate tipping points and solar geoengineering," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 132(PB), pages 19-45.
    6. Pierre Perron & Francisco Estrada & Carlos Gay-García & Benjamín Martínez-López, 2011. "A time-series analysis of the 20th century climate simulations produced for the IPCC’s AR4," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2011-051, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    7. Andrew J. Wiltshire & Gillian Kay & Jemma L. Gornall & Richard A. Betts, 2013. "The Impact of Climate, CO 2 and Population on Regional Food and Water Resources in the 2050s," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 5(5), pages 1-23, May.
    8. Zbigniew Jaworowski, 2005. "Nature Rules the Climate," Energy & Environment, , vol. 16(1), pages 131-147, January.
    9. Liang Yi & Hongjun Yu & Junyi Ge & Zhongping Lai & Xingyong Xu & Li Qin & Shuzhen Peng, 2012. "Reconstructions of annual summer precipitation and temperature in north-central China since 1470 AD based on drought/flood index and tree-ring records," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 110(1), pages 469-498, January.
    10. Luis A. Barboza & Julien Emile-Geay & Bo Li & Wan He, 2019. "Efficient Reconstructions of Common Era Climate via Integrated Nested Laplace Approximations," Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmental Statistics, Springer;The International Biometric Society;American Statistical Association, vol. 24(3), pages 535-554, September.
    11. Manoussi, Vassiliki & Shayegh, Soheil & Tavoni, Massimo, 2017. "Optimal Carbon Dioxide Removal in Face of Ocean Carbon Sink Feedback," MITP: Mitigation, Innovation and Transformation Pathways 266288, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    12. Stephen McIntyre & Ross McKitrick, 2005. "The M&M Critique of the MBH98 Northern Hemisphere Climate Index: Update and Implications," Energy & Environment, , vol. 16(1), pages 69-100, January.
    13. Teresa R. Freitas & João A. Santos & Ana P. Silva & André Fonseca & Helder Fraga, 2023. "Evaluation of historical and future thermal conditions for almond trees in north-eastern Portugal," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(7), pages 1-21, July.
    14. Liu, Sen & Gao, Hongxia & He, Chuan & Liang, Zhiwu, 2019. "Experimental evaluation of highly efficient primary and secondary amines with lower energy by a novel method for post-combustion CO2 capture," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 233, pages 443-452.
    15. Masahiro Sugiyama & Shinichiro Asayama & Atsushi Ishii & Takanobu Kosugi & John C. Moore & Jolene Lin & Penehuro F. Lefale & Wil Burns & Masatomo Fujiwara & Arunabha Ghosh & Joshua Horton & Atsushi Ku, 2017. "The Asia-Pacific’s role in the emerging solar geoengineering debate," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 143(1), pages 1-12, July.
    16. Jeremy Galbreath, 2010. "Corporate governance practices that address climate change: an exploratory study," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(5), pages 335-350, July.
    17. Doru Bănăduc & Saša Marić & Kevin Cianfaglione & Sergey Afanasyev & Dóra Somogyi & Krisztián Nyeste & László Antal & Ján Koščo & Marko Ćaleta & Josef Wanzenböck & Angela Curtean-Bănăduc, 2022. "Stepping Stone Wetlands, Last Sanctuaries for European Mudminnow: How Can the Human Impact, Climate Change, and Non-Native Species Drive a Fish to the Edge of Extinction?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-39, October.
    18. Fraga, H. & García de Cortázar Atauri, I. & Santos, J.A, 2018. "Viticultural irrigation demands under climate change scenarios in Portugal," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 196(C), pages 66-74.
    19. Travaglini, Guido, 2011. "Climate change: where is the hockey stick? evidence from millennial-scale reconstructed and updated temperature time series," MPRA Paper 35565, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Heutel, Garth & Moreno-Cruz, Juan & Shayegh, Soheil, 2018. "Solar geoengineering, uncertainty, and the price of carbon," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 24-41.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:162:y:2020:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-020-02786-3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.