IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/climat/v147y2018i1d10.1007_s10584-017-2115-9.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The impacts avoided with a 1.5 °C climate target: a global and regional assessment

Author

Listed:
  • Nigel W. Arnell

    (University of Reading)

  • Jason A. Lowe

    (Met Office Hadley Centre
    University of Leeds)

  • Ben Lloyd-Hughes

    (University of Reading)

  • Timothy J. Osborn

    (University of East Anglia)

Abstract

The 2015 Paris Agreement commits countries to pursue efforts to limit the increase in global mean temperature to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. We assess the consequences of achieving this target in 2100 for the impacts that are avoided, using several indicators of impact (exposure to drought, river flooding, heat waves and demands for heating and cooling energy). The proportion of impacts that are avoided is not simply equal to the proportional reduction in temperature. At the global scale, the median proportion of projected impacts avoided by the 1.5 °C target relative to a rise of 4 °C ranges between 62 and 95% across sectors: the greatest reduction is for heat wave impacts. The 1.5 °C target results in impacts that would be between 27 and 62% lower than with the 2 °C target. For each indicator, there are differences in the proportions of impacts avoided between regions depending on exposure and the regional changes in climate (particularly precipitation). Uncertainty in the proportion of impacts that are avoided for a specific sector depends on the range in the shape of the relationship between global temperature change and impact, and this varies between sectors.

Suggested Citation

  • Nigel W. Arnell & Jason A. Lowe & Ben Lloyd-Hughes & Timothy J. Osborn, 2018. "The impacts avoided with a 1.5 °C climate target: a global and regional assessment," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 147(1), pages 61-76, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:147:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s10584-017-2115-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-2115-9
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-017-2115-9
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10584-017-2115-9?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Isaac, Morna & van Vuuren, Detlef P., 2009. "Modeling global residential sector energy demand for heating and air conditioning in the context of climate change," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 507-521, February.
    2. Nigel Arnell & Simon Gosling, 2016. "The impacts of climate change on river flood risk at the global scale," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(3), pages 387-401, February.
    3. Claudia Tebaldi & Julie Arblaster, 2014. "Pattern scaling: Its strengths and limitations, and an update on the latest model simulations," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 459-471, February.
    4. Timothy Osborn & Craig Wallace & Ian Harris & Thomas Melvin, 2016. "Pattern scaling using ClimGen: monthly-resolution future climate scenarios including changes in the variability of precipitation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(3), pages 353-369, February.
    5. Timothy J. Osborn & Craig J. Wallace & Ian C. Harris & Thomas M. Melvin, 2016. "Pattern scaling using ClimGen: monthly-resolution future climate scenarios including changes in the variability of precipitation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(3), pages 353-369, February.
    6. N. Arnell & S. Brown & S. Gosling & J. Hinkel & C. Huntingford & B. Lloyd-Hughes & J. Lowe & T. Osborn & R. Nicholls & P. Zelazowski, 2016. "Global-scale climate impact functions: the relationship between climate forcing and impact," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(3), pages 475-487, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. van der Wiel, K. & Stoop, L.P. & van Zuijlen, B.R.H. & Blackport, R. & van den Broek, M.A. & Selten, F.M., 2019. "Meteorological conditions leading to extreme low variable renewable energy production and extreme high energy shortfall," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 261-275.
    2. Bloomfield, H.C. & Brayshaw, D.J. & Troccoli, A. & Goodess, C.M. & De Felice, M. & Dubus, L. & Bett, P.E. & Saint-Drenan, Y.-M., 2021. "Quantifying the sensitivity of european power systems to energy scenarios and climate change projections," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 1062-1075.
    3. N. W. Arnell & J. A. Lowe & A. J. Challinor & T. J. Osborn, 2019. "Global and regional impacts of climate change at different levels of global temperature increase," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 155(3), pages 377-391, August.
    4. Helen M. Hanlon & Dan Bernie & Giulia Carigi & Jason A. Lowe, 2021. "Future changes to high impact weather in the UK," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 166(3), pages 1-23, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yi He & Desmond Manful & Rachel Warren & Nicole Forstenhäusler & Timothy J. Osborn & Jeff Price & Rhosanna Jenkins & Craig Wallace & Dai Yamazaki, 2022. "Quantification of impacts between 1.5 and 4 °C of global warming on flooding risks in six countries," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 170(1), pages 1-21, January.
    2. Rachel Warren & Oliver Andrews & Sally Brown & Felipe J. Colón-González & Nicole Forstenhäusler & David E. H. J. Gernaat & P. Goodwin & Ian Harris & Yi He & Chris Hope & Desmond Manful & Timothy J. Os, 2022. "Quantifying risks avoided by limiting global warming to 1.5 or 2 °C above pre-industrial levels," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 172(3), pages 1-16, June.
    3. Daoping Wang & Katie Jenkins & Nicole Forstenhäusler & Tianyang Lei & Jeff Price & Rachel Warren & Rhosanna Jenkins & Dabo Guan, 2021. "Economic impacts of climate-induced crop yield changes: evidence from agri-food industries in six countries," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 166(3), pages 1-19, June.
    4. Jeff Price & Rachel Warren & Nicole Forstenhäusler & Craig Wallace & Rhosanna Jenkins & Timothy J. Osborn & D. P. Vuuren, 2022. "Quantification of meteorological drought risks between 1.5 °C and 4 °C of global warming in six countries," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 174(1), pages 1-16, September.
    5. Timothy Osborn & Craig Wallace & Ian Harris & Thomas Melvin, 2016. "Pattern scaling using ClimGen: monthly-resolution future climate scenarios including changes in the variability of precipitation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(3), pages 353-369, February.
    6. N. W. Arnell & J. A. Lowe & A. J. Challinor & T. J. Osborn, 2019. "Global and regional impacts of climate change at different levels of global temperature increase," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 155(3), pages 377-391, August.
    7. Weiping Wang & Saini Yang & Jianxi Gao & Fuyu Hu & Wanyi Zhao & H. Eugene Stanley, 2020. "An Integrated Approach for Assessing the Impact of Large‐Scale Future Floods on a Highway Transport System," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(9), pages 1780-1794, September.
    8. R. Warren & J. Price & J. VanDerWal & S. Cornelius & H. Sohl, 2018. "The implications of the United Nations Paris Agreement on climate change for globally significant biodiversity areas," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 147(3), pages 395-409, April.
    9. N. Arnell & S. Brown & S. Gosling & P. Gottschalk & J. Hinkel & C. Huntingford & B. Lloyd-Hughes & J. Lowe & R. Nicholls & T. Osborn & T. Osborne & G. Rose & P. Smith & T. Wheeler & P. Zelazowski, 2016. "The impacts of climate change across the globe: A multi-sectoral assessment," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(3), pages 457-474, February.
    10. Nishijima, Daisuke, 2017. "The role of technology, product lifetime, and energy efficiency in climate mitigation: A case study of air conditioners in Japan," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 340-347.
    11. François Cohen & Matthieu Glachant & Magnus Söderberg, 2017. "The cost of adapting to climate change: evidence from the US residential sector," Working Papers hal-01695171, HAL.
    12. Yau, Y.H. & Pean, H.L., 2011. "The climate change impact on air conditioner system and reliability in Malaysia—A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(9), pages 4939-4949.
    13. Bushra Khalid & Bueh Cholaw & Débora Souza Alvim & Shumaila Javeed & Junaid Aziz Khan & Muhammad Asif Javed & Azmat Hayat Khan, 2018. "Riverine flood assessment in Jhang district in connection with ENSO and summer monsoon rainfall over Upper Indus Basin for 2010," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 92(2), pages 971-993, June.
    14. Speerforck, Arne & Schmitz, Gerhard, 2016. "Experimental investigation of a ground-coupled desiccant assisted air conditioning system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 575-585.
    15. Laura Devitt & Jeffrey Neal & Gemma Coxon & James Savage & Thorsten Wagener, 2023. "Flood hazard potential reveals global floodplain settlement patterns," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    16. Vincenzo Bianco & Annalisa Marchitto & Federico Scarpa & Luca A. Tagliafico, 2020. "Forecasting Energy Consumption in the EU Residential Sector," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(7), pages 1-15, March.
    17. Psiloglou, B.E. & Giannakopoulos, C. & Majithia, S. & Petrakis, M., 2009. "Factors affecting electricity demand in Athens, Greece and London, UK: A comparative assessment," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 1855-1863.
    18. Cansino, José M. & Pablo-Romero, María del P. & Román, Rocío & Yñiguez, Rocío, 2011. "Promoting renewable energy sources for heating and cooling in EU-27 countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 3803-3812, June.
    19. Enrica De Cian & Ian Sue Wing, 2016. "Global Energy Demand in a Warming Climate," Working Papers 2016.16, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    20. Indira Pokhrel & Ajay Kalra & Md Mafuzur Rahaman & Ranjeet Thakali, 2020. "Forecasting of Future Flooding and Risk Assessment under CMIP6 Climate Projection in Neuse River, North Carolina," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 2(3), pages 1-23, August.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:147:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s10584-017-2115-9. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.