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Pattern scaling: Its strengths and limitations, and an update on the latest model simulations

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  • Claudia Tebaldi
  • Julie Arblaster

Abstract

We review the ideas behind the pattern scaling technique, and focus on its value and limitations given its use for impact assessment and within integrated assessment models. We present estimates of patterns for temperature and precipitation change from the latest transient simulations available from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), focusing on multi-model mean patterns, and characterizing the sources of variability of these patterns across models and scenarios. The patterns are compared to those obtained from the previous set of experiments, under CMIP3. We estimate the significance of the emerging differences between CMIP3 and CMIP5 results through a bootstrap exercise, while also taking into account the fundamental differences in scenario and model ensemble composition. All in all, the robustness of the geographical features in patterns of temperature and precipitation, when computed as multi-model means, is confirmed by this comparison. The intensity of the change (in both the warmer and cooler areas with respect to global temperature change, and the drier and wetter regions) is overall heightened per degree of global warming in the ensemble mean of the new simulations. The presence of stabilized scenarios in the new set of simulations allows investigation of the performance of the technique once the system has gotten close to equilibrium. Overall, the well established validity of the technique in approximating the forced signal of change under increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases is confirmed. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

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  • Claudia Tebaldi & Julie Arblaster, 2014. "Pattern scaling: Its strengths and limitations, and an update on the latest model simulations," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 459-471, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:122:y:2014:i:3:p:459-471
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-1032-9
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    1. Yasuhiro Ishizaki & Hideo Shiogama & Seita Emori & Tokuta Yokohata & Toru Nozawa & Tomoo Ogura & Manabu Abe & Masakazu Yoshimori & Kiyoshi Takahashi, 2012. "Temperature scaling pattern dependence on representative concentration pathway emission scenarios," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 112(2), pages 535-546, May.
    2. Wilhelm May, 2012. "Assessing the strength of regional changes in near-surface climate associated with a global warming of 2°C," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 110(3), pages 619-644, February.
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    6. N. Arnell & S. Brown & S. Gosling & P. Gottschalk & J. Hinkel & C. Huntingford & B. Lloyd-Hughes & J. Lowe & R. Nicholls & T. Osborn & T. Osborne & G. Rose & P. Smith & T. Wheeler & P. Zelazowski, 2016. "The impacts of climate change across the globe: A multi-sectoral assessment," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(3), pages 457-474, February.
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    8. Timothy J. Osborn & Craig J. Wallace & Ian C. Harris & Thomas M. Melvin, 2016. "Pattern scaling using ClimGen: monthly-resolution future climate scenarios including changes in the variability of precipitation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(3), pages 353-369, February.
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    12. J. -F. Mercure & H. Pollitt & A. M. Bassi & J. E Vi~nuales & N. R. Edwards, 2015. "Modelling complex systems of heterogeneous agents to better design sustainability transitions policy," Papers 1506.07432, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2016.
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    20. Azaïs, Jean-Marc & Ribes, Aurélien, 2016. "Multivariate spline analysis for multiplicative models: Estimation, testing and application to climate change," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 38-53.
    21. Matthew A. Thomas & Ting Lin, 2018. "A dual model for emulation of thermosteric and dynamic sea-level change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 148(1), pages 311-324, May.
    22. Nigel Arnell & Simon Gosling, 2016. "The impacts of climate change on river flood risk at the global scale," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(3), pages 387-401, February.
    23. Andrew Jones & Katherine Calvin & William Collins & James Edmonds, 2015. "Accounting for radiative forcing from albedo change in future global land-use scenarios," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 131(4), pages 691-703, August.
    24. Rachel Warren & Oliver Andrews & Sally Brown & Felipe J. Colón-González & Nicole Forstenhäusler & David E. H. J. Gernaat & P. Goodwin & Ian Harris & Yi He & Chris Hope & Desmond Manful & Timothy J. Os, 2022. "Quantifying risks avoided by limiting global warming to 1.5 or 2 °C above pre-industrial levels," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 172(3), pages 1-16, June.
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