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The implications of the United Nations Paris Agreement on climate change for globally significant biodiversity areas

Author

Listed:
  • R. Warren

    (University of East Anglia)

  • J. Price

    (University of East Anglia)

  • J. VanDerWal

    (James Cook University)

  • S. Cornelius

    (WWF-UK, The Living Planet Centre)

  • H. Sohl

    (WWF-UK, The Living Planet Centre)

Abstract

Climate change is already affecting species and their distributions. Distributional range changes have occurred and are projected to intensify for many widespread plants and animals, creating associated risks to many ecosystems. Here, we estimate the climate change-related risks to the species in globally significant biodiversity conservation areas over a range of climate scenarios, assessing their value as climate refugia. In particular, we quantify the aggregated benefit of countries’ emission reduction pledges (Intended Nationally Determined Contributions and Nationally Determined Contributions under the Paris Agreement), and also of further constraining global warming to 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, against an unmitigated scenario of 4.5 °C warming. We also quantify the contribution that can be made by using smart spatial conservation planning to facilitate some levels of autonomous (i.e. natural) adaptation to climate change by dispersal. We find that without mitigation, on average 33% of each conservation area can act as climate refugium (or 18% if species are unable to disperse), whereas if warming is constrained to 2 °C, the average area of climate refuges doubles to 67% of each conservation area (or, without dispersal, more than doubles to 56% of each area). If the country pledges are fulfilled, an intermediate estimate of 47–52% (or 31–38%, without dispersal) is obtained. We conclude that the Nationally Determined Contributions alone have important but limited benefits for biodiversity conservation, with larger benefits accruing if warming is constrained to 2 °C. Greater benefits would result if warming was constrained to well below 2 °C as set out in the Paris Agreement.

Suggested Citation

  • R. Warren & J. Price & J. VanDerWal & S. Cornelius & H. Sohl, 2018. "The implications of the United Nations Paris Agreement on climate change for globally significant biodiversity areas," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 147(3), pages 395-409, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:147:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-018-2158-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-018-2158-6
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    1. R. Warren & J. VanDerWal & J. Price & J. A. Welbergen & I. Atkinson & J. Ramirez-Villegas & T. J. Osborn & A. Jarvis & L. P. Shoo & S. E. Williams & J. Lowe, 2013. "Quantifying the benefit of early climate change mitigation in avoiding biodiversity loss," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(7), pages 678-682, July.
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    3. Simplice A. Asongu & Nicholas M.Odhiambo, "undated". "Governance and Renewable Energy Consumption in sub-Saharan Africa," Working Papers AESRIWP11, African Economic and Social Research Institute (AESRI).
    4. Mattia Manni & Valentina Coccia & Diletta Paoletti & Fabio Raspadori & Timo Ritonummi & Franco Cotana, 2020. "Shaping Multi-Level Energy and Climate Policy within the SET Plan Framework," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(22), pages 1-16, November.
    5. Rachel Warren & Oliver Andrews & Sally Brown & Felipe J. Colón-González & Nicole Forstenhäusler & David E. H. J. Gernaat & P. Goodwin & Ian Harris & Yi He & Chris Hope & Desmond Manful & Timothy J. Os, 2022. "Quantifying risks avoided by limiting global warming to 1.5 or 2 °C above pre-industrial levels," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 172(3), pages 1-16, June.
    6. Stella Manes & Igor Rodrigues Henud & Kenny Tanizaki-Fonseca, 2022. "Climate change mitigation potential of Atlantic Forest reforestations," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 27(6), pages 1-15, August.
    7. Sarahi Nunez & Eric Arets & Rob Alkemade & Caspar Verwer & Rik Leemans, 2019. "Assessing the impacts of climate change on biodiversity: is below 2 °C enough?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 154(3), pages 351-365, June.
    8. Yang, Yong & Wu, Chufen & Li, Zunxian, 2019. "Forced waves and their asymptotics in a Lotka–Volterra cooperative model under climate change," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 353(C), pages 254-264.
    9. Yu, Ying & Dai, Yuqi & Xu, Linyu & Zheng, Hanzhong & Wu, Wenhao & Chen, Lei, 2023. "A multi-level characteristic analysis of urban agglomeration energy-related carbon emission: A case study of the Pearl River Delta," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PB).
    10. Manes, Stella & Vale, Mariana M. & Malecha, Artur & Pires, Aliny P.F., 2022. "Nature-based solutions promote climate change adaptation safeguarding ecosystem services," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).

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