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Anchoring climate change communications

Author

Listed:
  • Adam J. L. Harris

    (University College London)

  • Han-Hui Por

    (Fordham University
    Educational Testing Service)

  • Stephen B. Broomell

    (Carnegie Mellon University)

Abstract

Verbal probability expressions (VPEs) are frequently used to communicate risk and uncertainty. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change attempts to standardise the use and interpretation of these expressions through a translation scale of numerical ranges to VPEs. A common issue in interpreting VPEs is the tendency for individuals to interpret VPEs around the midpoint of the scale (i.e. around 50%). Previous research has shown that compliance with the IPCC’s standards can be improved if the numerical translation is presented simultaneously with the VPE, reducing the regressiveness of interpretations. We show that an explicit statement of the lower or upper bound implied by the expression (e.g. 0–33%; 66–100%) leads to better differentiated estimates of the probability implied by ‘likely’ and ‘unlikely’ than when the bound is not explicitly identified (e.g. less than 33%; greater than 66%).

Suggested Citation

  • Adam J. L. Harris & Han-Hui Por & Stephen B. Broomell, 2017. "Anchoring climate change communications," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 140(3), pages 387-398, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:140:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-016-1859-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1859-y
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hogarth, Robin M. (ed.), 1990. "Insights in Decision Making," University of Chicago Press Economics Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226348551, September.
    2. David Budescu & Han-Hui Por & Stephen Broomell, 2012. "Effective communication of uncertainty in the IPCC reports," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 113(2), pages 181-200, July.
    3. Furnham, Adrian & Boo, Hua Chu, 2011. "A literature review of the anchoring effect," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 35-42, February.
    4. Budescu, David V. & Wallsten, Thomas S., 1985. "Consistency in interpretation of probabilistic phrases," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 391-405, December.
    5. Adam Harris & Adam Corner & Juemin Xu & Xiufang Du, 2013. "Lost in translation? Interpretations of the probability phrases used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in China and the UK," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 121(2), pages 415-425, November.
    6. Mochon, Daniel & Frederick, Shane, 2013. "Anchoring in sequential judgments," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 69-79.
    7. David V. Budescu & Han-Hui Por & Stephen B. Broomell & Michael Smithson, 2014. "The interpretation of IPCC probabilistic statements around the world," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 4(6), pages 508-512, June.
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