IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/annopr/v299y2021i1d10.1007_s10479-020-03583-y.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A decision-dependent randomness stochastic program for asset–liability management model with a pricing decision

Author

Listed:
  • Miloš Kopa

    (Charles University in Prague)

  • Tomáš Rusý

    (Charles University in Prague)

Abstract

In this study, we present a stochastic programming asset–liability management model which deals with decision-dependent randomness. The model focuses on a pricing problem and the subsequent asset–liability management problem describing the typical life of a consumer loan. Such problems are frequently tackled by many companies, including multinationals. When doing so, they must consider numerous factors. These factors include the possibility of their customer rejecting the loan, the possibility of the customer defaulting on the loan and the possibility of prepayment. The randomness associated with these factors have a clear relationship with the offered interest rate of the loan which is the company’s decision and thus, induces decision-dependent randomness. Another important factor, which plays a major role for liabilities, is the price of money in the market. This is determined by the market interest rates. We captured their evolution in the form of a scenario tree. In summary, we formulated a non-linear, multi-stage stochastic program with decision-dependent randomness, which spanned the lifetime of a typical consumer loan. Its solution showed us the optimal decisions that the company should make. In addition, we performed a sensitivity analysis demonstrating the results of the model for various parameter settings that described different types of customers. Finally, we discuss the losses caused if companies do not act in the optimal way.

Suggested Citation

  • Miloš Kopa & Tomáš Rusý, 2021. "A decision-dependent randomness stochastic program for asset–liability management model with a pricing decision," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 299(1), pages 241-271, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:annopr:v:299:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1007_s10479-020-03583-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s10479-020-03583-y
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10479-020-03583-y
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10479-020-03583-y?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Vasicek, Oldrich, 1977. "An equilibrium characterization of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 177-188, November.
    2. Sebastiano Vitali & Vittorio Moriggia & Miloš Kopa, 2017. "Optimal pension fund composition for an Italian private pension plan sponsor," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 135-160, January.
    3. Vasicek, Oldrich Alfonso, 1977. "Abstract: An Equilibrium Characterization of the Term Structure," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(4), pages 627-627, November.
    4. Dirk Broeders & An Chen & Birgit Koos, 2009. "An institutional evaluation of pension funds and life insurance companies," DNB Working Papers 227, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    5. David R. Cariño & Terry Kent & David H. Myers & Celine Stacy & Mike Sylvanus & Andrew L. Turner & Kouji Watanabe & William T. Ziemba, 1994. "The Russell-Yasuda Kasai Model: An Asset/Liability Model for a Japanese Insurance Company Using Multistage Stochastic Programming," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 24(1), pages 29-49, February.
    6. John C. Cox & Jonathan E. Ingersoll Jr. & Stephen A. Ross, 2005. "A Theory Of The Term Structure Of Interest Rates," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Sudipto Bhattacharya & George M Constantinides (ed.), Theory Of Valuation, chapter 5, pages 129-164, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    7. Hull, John & White, Alan, 1990. "Pricing Interest-Rate-Derivative Securities," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(4), pages 573-592.
    8. Dupačová, Jitka & Kopa, Miloš, 2014. "Robustness of optimal portfolios under risk and stochastic dominance constraints," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 234(2), pages 434-441.
    9. Moriggia, Vittorio & Kopa, Miloš & Vitali, Sebastiano, 2019. "Pension fund management with hedging derivatives, stochastic dominance and nodal contamination," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 127-141.
    10. Miloš Kopa & Vittorio Moriggia & Sebastiano Vitali, 2018. "Individual optimal pension allocation under stochastic dominance constraints," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 260(1), pages 255-291, January.
    11. Hadar, Josef & Russell, William R, 1969. "Rules for Ordering Uncertain Prospects," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(1), pages 25-34, March.
    12. Pliska, Stanley R. & Ye, Jinchun, 2007. "Optimal life insurance purchase and consumption/investment under uncertain lifetime," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 1307-1319, May.
    13. Alois Geyer & William T. Ziemba, 2008. "The Innovest Austrian Pension Fund Financial Planning Model InnoALM," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 56(4), pages 797-810, August.
    14. Rockafellar, R. Tyrrell & Uryasev, Stanislav, 2002. "Conditional value-at-risk for general loss distributions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1443-1471, July.
    15. Jitka Dupačová & Miloš Kopa, 2012. "Robustness in stochastic programs with risk constraints," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 200(1), pages 55-74, November.
    16. Tore Jonsbråten & Roger Wets & David Woodruff, 1998. "A class of stochastic programs withdecision dependent random elements," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 82(0), pages 83-106, August.
    17. M. I. Kusy & W. T. Ziemba, 1986. "A Bank Asset and Liability Management Model," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 34(3), pages 356-376, June.
    18. Lester G. Telser, 1955. "Safety First and Hedging," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 23(1), pages 1-16.
    19. Viswanath, Kannan & Peeta, Srinivas & Salman, Sibel F., 2004. "Investing in the Links of a Stochastic Network to Minimize Expected Shortest Path. Length," Purdue University Economics Working Papers 1167, Purdue University, Department of Economics.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kavitha G. Menon & Ricardo Fukasawa & Luis A. Ricardez-Sandoval, 2021. "A novel stochastic programming approach for scheduling of batch processes with decision dependent time of uncertainty realization," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 305(1), pages 163-190, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sebastiano Vitali & Vittorio Moriggia, 2021. "Pension fund management with investment certificates and stochastic dominance," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 299(1), pages 273-292, April.
    2. Moriggia, Vittorio & Kopa, Miloš & Vitali, Sebastiano, 2019. "Pension fund management with hedging derivatives, stochastic dominance and nodal contamination," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 127-141.
    3. Miloš Kopa & Vittorio Moriggia & Sebastiano Vitali, 2018. "Individual optimal pension allocation under stochastic dominance constraints," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 260(1), pages 255-291, January.
    4. Giorgio Consigli & Vittorio Moriggia & Sebastiano Vitali, 2020. "Long-term individual financial planning under stochastic dominance constraints," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 292(2), pages 973-1000, September.
    5. Thorsten Moenig, 2021. "Efficient valuation of variable annuity portfolios with dynamic programming," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 88(4), pages 1023-1055, December.
    6. Kopa, Miloš & Rusý, Tomáš, 2023. "Robustness of stochastic programs with endogenous randomness via contamination," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 305(3), pages 1259-1272.
    7. František Zapletal & Martin Šmíd & Miloš Kopa, 2020. "Multi-stage emissions management of a steel company," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 292(2), pages 735-751, September.
    8. Camilla LandÊn, 2000. "Bond pricing in a hidden Markov model of the short rate," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 4(4), pages 371-389.
    9. Lin, Bing-Huei, 1999. "Fitting the term structure of interest rates for Taiwanese government bonds," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 9(3-4), pages 331-352, November.
    10. Prakash Chakraborty & Kiseop Lee, 2022. "Bond Prices Under Information Asymmetry and a Short Rate with Instantaneous Feedback," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 613-634, June.
    11. Huse, Cristian, 2011. "Term structure modelling with observable state variables," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 3240-3252.
    12. Bjork, Tomas, 2009. "Arbitrage Theory in Continuous Time," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 3, number 9780199574742.
    13. Frank De Jong & Joost Driessen & Antoon Pelsser, 2001. "Libor Market Models versus Swap Market Models for Pricing Interest Rate Derivatives: An Empirical Analysis," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 5(3), pages 201-237.
    14. João Nunes, 2011. "American options and callable bonds under stochastic interest rates and endogenous bankruptcy," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 283-332, October.
    15. Hautsch, Nikolaus & Yang, Fuyu, 2012. "Bayesian inference in a Stochastic Volatility Nelson–Siegel model," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(11), pages 3774-3792.
    16. Spiros H. Martzoukos & Theodore M. Barnhill Jr., 1998. "The Survival Zone For A Bond With Both Call And Put Options Embedded," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 21(4), pages 419-430, December.
    17. Choi, Jaehyung, 2012. "Spontaneous symmetry breaking of arbitrage," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(11), pages 3206-3218.
    18. Giuseppe Orlando & Michele Bufalo, 2021. "Interest rates forecasting: Between Hull and White and the CIR#—How to make a single‐factor model work," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(8), pages 1566-1580, December.
    19. Dong-Mei Zhu & Jiejun Lu & Wai-Ki Ching & Tak-Kuen Siu, 2019. "Option Pricing Under a Stochastic Interest Rate and Volatility Model with Hidden Markovian Regime-Switching," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 53(2), pages 555-586, February.
    20. Fergusson, Kevin, 2020. "Less-Expensive Valuation And Reserving Of Long-Dated Variable Annuities When Interest Rates And Mortality Rates Are Stochastic," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 50(2), pages 381-417, May.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:annopr:v:299:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1007_s10479-020-03583-y. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.