IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/annopr/v257y2017i1d10.1007_s10479-015-1830-8.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

E-business system investment for fresh agricultural food industry in China

Author

Listed:
  • Ziping Wang

    (Morgan State University)

  • Dong-Qing Yao

    (Towson University)

  • Xiaohang Yue

    (University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee)

Abstract

A fresh agricultural food online exchange system is gradually becoming an emerging e-business model in China. However, how and when to make an investment in this new business model is risky due to the unique characteristics of fresh agricultural food. In this paper, from a third party decision maker’s perspective, we propose an evolutionary discounted cash flow model to investigate the optimum time point for investment. Based on the assumptions of base demand, the derived e-demand occurring on the pendent e-business system can be characterized by non-stationary stochastic processes. Then our new model can further be innovatively analyzed by considering the dynamic scheme of the cash flow and its evolution. The analytical results suggest the optimal investment time point depends upon the consumers’ switch rate from the physical store to e-store and on the urbanization rate. A Monte Carlo simulation is further presented to compare the effects of multiple uncertainties embedded into the system. Our uncertainty analysis reveals that when government financial support fluctuates greatly, the optimal investment time could be either in the very beginning or in the end. This optimal time strategy also holds for the random demand factor after the coefficient variation of the demand reaches a certain threshold.

Suggested Citation

  • Ziping Wang & Dong-Qing Yao & Xiaohang Yue, 2017. "E-business system investment for fresh agricultural food industry in China," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 257(1), pages 379-394, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:annopr:v:257:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1007_s10479-015-1830-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s10479-015-1830-8
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10479-015-1830-8
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10479-015-1830-8?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nicholas C. Petruzzi & Maqbool Dada, 1999. "Pricing and the Newsvendor Problem: A Review with Extensions," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 47(2), pages 183-194, April.
    2. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 2001. "Valuing American Options by Simulation: A Simple Least-Squares Approach," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(1), pages 113-147.
    3. Nguyen, Hong-Oanh, 2013. "Critical factors in e-business adoption: Evidence from Australian transport and logistics companies," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(1), pages 300-312.
    4. Eksoz, Can & Mansouri, S. Afshin & Bourlakis, Michael, 2014. "Collaborative forecasting in the food supply chain: A conceptual framework," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 120-135.
    5. Huaming Zhou & Qiao Ding & James Otto, 2013. "The reality and prospect of fresh agricultural product supply chains in China," International Journal of Applied Management Science, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 5(3), pages 251-264.
    6. Murali D. R. Chari & Sarv Devaraj & Parthiban David, 2008. "Research Note--The Impact of Information Technology Investments and Diversification Strategies on Firm Performance," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 54(1), pages 224-234, January.
    7. Validi, Sahar & Bhattacharya, Arijit & Byrne, P.J., 2014. "A case analysis of a sustainable food supply chain distribution system—A multi-objective approach," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 71-87.
    8. Choi, Tsan-Ming & Chow, Pui-Sze & Xiao, Tiaojun, 2012. "Electronic price-testing scheme for fashion retailing with information updating," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(1), pages 396-406.
    9. Tsan-Ming Choi & Chun-Hung Chiu, 2012. "Risk Analysis in Stochastic Supply Chains," International Series in Operations Research and Management Science, Springer, edition 127, number 978-1-4614-3869-4, September.
    10. Joseph Y. J. Chow & Amelia C. Regan, 2011. "Real Option Pricing of Network Design Investments," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 45(1), pages 50-63, February.
    11. Eduardo S. Schwartz & Carlos Zozaya-Gorostiza, 2003. "Investment Under Uncertainty in Information Technology: Acquisition and Development Projects," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 49(1), pages 57-70, January.
    12. Xiaotong Li & John D. Johnson, 2002. "Evaluate IT Investment Opportunities Using Real Options Theory," Information Resources Management Journal (IRMJ), IGI Global, vol. 15(3), pages 32-47, July.
    13. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 2001. "Valuing American Options by Simulation: A Simple Least-Squares Approach," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt43n1k4jb, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yael Perlman & Yaacov Ozinci & Sara Westrich, 2022. "Pricing decisions in a dual supply chain of organic and conventional agricultural products," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 314(2), pages 601-616, July.
    2. Liu, Molin & Dan, Bin & Zhang, Shuguang & Ma, Songxuan, 2021. "Information sharing in an E-tailing supply chain for fresh produce with freshness-keeping effort and value-added service," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 290(2), pages 572-584.
    3. Jingci Xie & Jianjian Liu & Xin Huo & Qingchun Meng & Mengyu Chu, 2021. "Fresh Food Dual-Channel Supply Chain Considering Consumers’ Low-Carbon and Freshness Preferences," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-29, June.
    4. Chen Wei & Sobhan Asian & Gurdal Ertek & Zhi-Hua Hu, 2020. "Location-based pricing and channel selection in a supply chain: a case study from the food retail industry," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 291(1), pages 959-984, August.
    5. Lin, Feng & Jia, Tao & Wu, Feng & Yang, Zhen, 2019. "Impacts of two-stage deterioration on an integrated inventory model under trade credit and variable capacity utilization," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 272(1), pages 219-234.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.
    2. Matthias Berger & Christian Matt & Jochen Gönsch & Thomas Hess, 2019. "Is the Time Ripe? How the Value of Waiting and Incentives Affect Users’ Switching Behaviors for Smart Home Devices," Schmalenbach Business Review, Springer;Schmalenbach-Gesellschaft, vol. 71(1), pages 91-123, February.
    3. Shiyuan Zheng & Rudy R. Negenborn, 2017. "Terminal investment timing decisions in a competitive setting with uncertainty using a real option approach," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(3), pages 392-411, April.
    4. Maier, Sebastian & Pflug, Georg C. & Polak, John W., 2020. "Valuing portfolios of interdependent real options under exogenous and endogenous uncertainties," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 285(1), pages 133-147.
    5. Ioannis Kyriakou & Panos K. Pouliasis & Nikos C. Papapostolou & Nikos K. Nomikos, 2018. "Income uncertainty and the decision to invest in bulk shipping," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 24(3), pages 387-417, June.
    6. Dimakopoulou, Andriana G. & Pramatari, Katerina C. & Tsekrekos, Andrianos E., 2014. "Applying real options to IT investment evaluation: The case of radio frequency identification (RFID) technology in the supply chain," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 191-207.
    7. Cassimon, D. & De Backer, M. & Engelen, P.J. & Van Wouwe, M. & Yordanov, V., 2011. "Incorporating technical risk in compound real option models to value a pharmaceutical R&D licensing opportunity," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(9), pages 1200-1216.
    8. Mark Broadie & Jerome B. Detemple, 2004. "ANNIVERSARY ARTICLE: Option Pricing: Valuation Models and Applications," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(9), pages 1145-1177, September.
    9. Shun Chen & Shiyuan Zheng & Qiang Zhang, 2018. "Investment decisions under uncertainty on LNG-powered vessels for environmental compliance," Journal of Shipping and Trade, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 1-19, December.
    10. Fabian Dickmann & Nikolaus Schweizer, 2014. "Faster Comparison of Stopping Times by Nested Conditional Monte Carlo," Papers 1402.0243, arXiv.org.
    11. Work, James & Hauer, Grant & Luckert, M.K. (Marty), 2018. "What ethanol prices would induce growers to switch from agriculture to poplar in Alberta? A multiple options approach," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 51-62.
    12. Kathrin Glau & Ricardo Pachon & Christian Potz, 2019. "Speed-up credit exposure calculations for pricing and risk management," Papers 1912.01280, arXiv.org.
    13. Dong, Wenfeng & Kang, Boda, 2019. "Analysis of a multiple year gas sales agreement with make-up, carry-forward and indexation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 76-96.
    14. Pringles, Rolando & Olsina, Fernando & Penizzotto, Franco, 2020. "Valuation of defer and relocation options in photovoltaic generation investments by a stochastic simulation-based method," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 846-864.
    15. Marta Biancardi & Giovanni Villani, 2017. "Robust Monte Carlo Method for R&D Real Options Valuation," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 49(3), pages 481-498, March.
    16. Gabriel J Power & Charli D. Tandja M. & Josée Bastien & Philippe Grégoire, 2015. "Measuring infrastructure investment option value," Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 16(1), pages 49-72, January.
    17. Stentoft, Lars, 2005. "Pricing American options when the underlying asset follows GARCH processes," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 576-611, September.
    18. O. Samimi & Z. Mardani & S. Sharafpour & F. Mehrdoust, 2017. "LSM Algorithm for Pricing American Option Under Heston–Hull–White’s Stochastic Volatility Model," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 50(2), pages 173-187, August.
    19. Mo, Jian-Lei & Schleich, Joachim & Zhu, Lei & Fan, Ying, 2015. "Delaying the introduction of emissions trading systems—Implications for power plant investment and operation from a multi-stage decision model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 255-264.
    20. Song-Ping Zhu & Xin-Jiang He, 2018. "A hybrid computational approach for option pricing," International Journal of Financial Engineering (IJFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 5(03), pages 1-16, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:annopr:v:257:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1007_s10479-015-1830-8. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.