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Incorporating technical risk in compound real option models to value a pharmaceutical R&D licensing opportunity

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  • Cassimon, D.
  • De Backer, M.
  • Engelen, P.J.
  • Van Wouwe, M.
  • Yordanov, V.

Abstract

The valuation of multi-staged pharmaceutical R&D can be interpreted as a chain of real options. In valuing these compound option models, a crucial problem is how to deal with the different types of risk. Previous models, such as Cassimon et al. (2004), offer a closed-form solution for the valuation of a new drug development using a generalized n-fold compound option model, but implicitly bundle both commercial and technical risk in one risk measure. We extend this model by explicitly incorporating technical risk, while still preserving the closed-form solution of the model. As such, this extended model is better suited to handle real-life valuation cases in the pharmaceutical industry. We document the theoretical model with a real-life project of a major pharmaceutical multinational.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Research Policy.

Volume (Year): 40 (2011)
Issue (Month): 9 ()
Pages: 1200-1216

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Handle: RePEc:eee:respol:v:40:y:2011:i:9:p:1200-1216

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/respol

Related research

Keywords: Pharmaceutical R&D; Real options; Compound option model; Technical risk; Case study;

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References

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  1. Pindyck, Robert S., 1993. "Investments of uncertain cost," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 53-76, August.
  2. Cassimon, D. & Engelen, P. J. & Thomassen, L. & Van Wouwe, M., 2004. "The valuation of a NDA using a 6-fold compound option," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 41-51, January.
  3. Cox, John C. & Ross, Stephen A. & Rubinstein, Mark, 1979. "Option pricing: A simplified approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 229-263, September.
  4. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 2001. "Valuing American Options by Simulation: A Simple Least-Squares Approach," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt43n1k4jb, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
  5. Eduardo S. Schwartz & Carlos Zozaya-Gorostiza, 2003. "Investment Under Uncertainty in Information Technology: Acquisition and Development Projects," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 49(1), pages 57-70, January.
  6. Schwartz, Eduardo S & Moon, Mark, 2001. "Rational Pricing of Internet Companies Revisited," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 36(4), pages 7-25, November.
  7. Geske, Robert, 1979. "The valuation of compound options," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 63-81, March.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Gambardella, Alfonso & Giarratana, Marco S., 2013. "General technological capabilities, product market fragmentation, and markets for technology," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 315-325.
  2. Cassimon, Danny & Engelen, Peter-Jan & Reyntjens, Filip, 2013. "Rwanda’s involvement in Eastern DRC: A criminal real options approach," MPRA Paper 46993, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Lo Nigro, Giovanna & Morreale, Azzurra & Enea, Gianluca, 2014. "Open innovation: A real option to restore value to the biopharmaceutical R&D," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 183-193.
  4. Ye Li & Peter Jan Engelen & Clemens Kool, 2012. "A Barrier Options Approach to Modeling Project Failure: The Case of Hydrogen Fuel Infrastructure," Working Papers 13-01, Utrecht School of Economics.
  5. Michi Nishihara, 2014. "Valuation of sequential R&D investment under technological, market, and rival preemption uncertainty," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 14-13, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics and Osaka School of International Public Policy (OSIPP).

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