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Change-in-mean tests in long-memory time series: a review of recent developments

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  • Kai Wenger

    (Leibniz University Hannover)

  • Christian Leschinski

    (Leibniz University Hannover)

  • Philipp Sibbertsen

    (Leibniz University Hannover)

Abstract

It is well known that standard tests for a mean shift are invalid in long-range dependent time series. Therefore, several long-memory robust extensions of standard testing principles for a change-in-mean have been proposed in the literature. These can be divided into two groups: those that utilize consistent estimates of the long-run variance and self-normalized test statistics. Here, we review this literature and complement it by deriving a new long-memory robust version of the sup-Wald test. Apart from giving a systematic review, we conduct an extensive Monte Carlo study to compare the relative performance of these methods. Special attention is paid to the interaction of the test results with the estimation of the long-memory parameter. Furthermore, we show that the power of self-normalized test statistics can be improved considerably by using an estimator that is robust to mean shifts.

Suggested Citation

  • Kai Wenger & Christian Leschinski & Philipp Sibbertsen, 2019. "Change-in-mean tests in long-memory time series: a review of recent developments," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 103(2), pages 237-256, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:alstar:v:103:y:2019:i:2:d:10.1007_s10182-018-0328-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s10182-018-0328-5
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    2. Ata Assaf & Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana & Khaled Mokni, 2022. "True or spurious long memory in the cryptocurrency markets: evidence from a multivariate test and other Whittle estimation methods," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(3), pages 1543-1570, September.
    3. Kunal Saha & Vinodh Madhavan & Chandrashekhar G. R. & David McMillan, 2020. "Pitfalls in long memory research," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(1), pages 1733280-173, January.
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    5. Sibbertsen, Philipp & Wenger, Kai & Wingert, Simon, 2020. "Testing for Multiple Structural Breaks in Multivariate Long Memory Time Series," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-676, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    6. Wenger, Kai & Less, Vivien, 2020. "A modified Wilcoxon test for change points in long-range dependent time series," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fractional integration; Structural breaks; Long memory;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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