IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spp/jkmeit/1262.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Forecasting the Success of Governmental "Incentivized" Initiatives: Case Study of a New Policy Promoting the Replacement of Old Household; Air-conditioners

Author

Listed:
  • Akrivi LITSA

    (Forecasting & Strategy Unit, School of Electrical and Computer Engineering, National Technical University of Athens, Heroon Polytechniou 9, 15780 Zografou, Greece)

  • Fotios PETROPOULOS

    (Forecasting & Strategy Unit, School of Electrical and Computer Engineering, National Technical University of Athens, Heroon Polytechniou 9, 15780 Zografou, Greece)

  • Konstantinos NIKOLOPOULOS

    (Bangor Business School, LL57 2DG, Gwynedd, Wales, United Kingdom)

Abstract

Governments often use budget so as to provide incentives for citizens to adopt new policies, especially when these are promoting eco-friendly technologies e.g. to subsidise the price of a hybrid-car. The public money spent on each policy, is considered to be value-for–money only if many citizens do adopt the proposed policy. This is also known as the ‘cost-effectiveness’ or the ‘economic success’ of a new policy. The latter should not be confused with the ‘economic impact’ of the new policy, as this is usually referred to the respective macro/micro socio-economic impact. This study reports on a experiment with semi-experts using Structured Analogies (SA) forecasting the success of a new policy promoting replacing old household air conditioners with energy saving units under a new environment and technology initiative implemented by a European government. The findings shows evidence that Structured Analogies (SA) is a useful forecasting tool for policy making, however all methods predicted results that were considerably off the mark, indicating the difficulty of the forecasting task under examination.

Suggested Citation

  • Akrivi LITSA & Fotios PETROPOULOS & Konstantinos NIKOLOPOULOS, 2012. "Forecasting the Success of Governmental "Incentivized" Initiatives: Case Study of a New Policy Promoting the Replacement of Old Household; Air-conditioners," Journal of Knowledge Management, Economics and Information Technology, ScientificPapers.org, vol. 2(1), pages 1-15, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spp:jkmeit:1262
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.scientificpapers.org/download/137/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Green, Kesten C., 2002. "Forecasting decisions in conflict situations: a comparison of game theory, role-playing, and unaided judgement," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 321-344.
    2. Green, Kesten C. & Armstrong, J. Scott, 2007. "Structured analogies for forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 365-376.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Katsagounos, Ilias & Thomakos, Dimitrios D. & Litsiou, Konstantia & Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos, 2021. "Superforecasting reality check: Evidence from a small pool of experts and expedited identification," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 289(1), pages 107-117.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Litsiou, Konstantia & Polychronakis, Yiannis & Karami, Azhdar & Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos, 2022. "Relative performance of judgmental methods for forecasting the success of megaprojects," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1185-1196.
    2. Green, Kesten C. & Armstrong, J. Scott, 2011. "Role thinking: Standing in other people's shoes to forecast decisions in conflicts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 69-80, January.
    3. J. Scott Armstrong & Kesten C. Green, 2005. "Demand Forecasting: Evidence-based Methods," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 24/05, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    4. Kesten C. Green & J. Scott Armstrong, 2007. "The Ombudsman: Value of Expertise for Forecasting Decisions in Conflicts," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 37(3), pages 287-299, June.
    5. Armstrong, J. Scott, 2006. "Findings from evidence-based forecasting: Methods for reducing forecast error," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 583-598.
    6. Armstrong, J. Scott & Green, Kesten C. & Graefe, Andreas, 2015. "Golden rule of forecasting: Be conservative," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 68(8), pages 1717-1731.
    7. Green, Kesten C., 2005. "Game theory, simulated interaction, and unaided judgement for forecasting decisions in conflicts: Further evidence," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 463-472.
    8. Green, Kesten C. & Armstrong, J. Scott, 2015. "Simple versus complex forecasting: The evidence," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 68(8), pages 1678-1685.
    9. Mike Metcalfe & Saras Sastrowardoyo, 2016. "Sense-making Innovative Systems: Prestigious MOOCs," Systems Research and Behavioral Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(3), pages 437-451, May.
    10. Schnaars, Steven, 2009. "Forecasting the future of technology by analogy—An evaluation of two prominent cases from the 20th century," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 187-195.
    11. Green, Kesten C. & Armstrong, J. Scott, 2007. "Structured analogies for forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 365-376.
    12. Konstantinos Nikolopoulos, 2010. "Forecasting with quantitative methods: the impact of special events in time series," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(8), pages 947-955.
    13. Savio, Nicolas D. & Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos, 2013. "A strategic forecasting framework for governmental decision-making and planning," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 311-321.
    14. Stekler, H. O., 2003. "Improving our ability to predict the unusual event," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 161-163.
    15. Anita Williams Woolley, 2011. "Playing Offense vs. Defense: The Effects of Team Strategic Orientation on Team Process in Competitive Environments," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 22(6), pages 1384-1398, December.
    16. Goodwin, Paul, 2002. "Forecasting games: can game theory win?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 369-374.
    17. Mauksch, Stefanie & von der Gracht, Heiko A. & Gordon, Theodore J., 2020. "Who is an expert for foresight? A review of identification methods," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    18. Wright, George & Rowe, Gene, 2011. "Group-based judgmental forecasting: An integration of extant knowledge and the development of priorities for a new research agenda," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 1-13, January.
    19. Michael R. Czinkota & Ilkka A. Ronkainen, 2009. "Trends and Indications in International Business," Management International Review, Springer, vol. 49(2), pages 249-265, April.
    20. Philippe Jacquart & J. Scott Armstrong, 2013. "The Ombudsman: Are Top Executives Paid Enough? An Evidence-Based Review," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 43(6), pages 580-589, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spp:jkmeit:1262. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Adrian Ghencea (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.scientificpapers.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.