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The Swiss Franc Exchange Rate and Deviations from Uncovered Interest Parity: Global vs Domestic Factors

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  • Mathias Hoffmann
  • Rahel Suter

Abstract

We examine the role of global and country-specific factors for the Swiss franc exchange rate in the period 1990–2009. Simple asset pricing theory would predict that exchange rates reflect relative movements in national discount factors and that systematic departures from uncovered interest parity can only be explained by international differences in the exposure to the common (global) component of all national discount factors. We extend the methodology of LUSTIG, ROUSSANOV and VERDELHAN (2009) to allow individual currencies' exposure to this global factor to vary over time as a function of the interest rate differential. This allows us to study the time-varying risk characteristics of individual currency pairs. We find that the Swiss franc acts as a safe haven against some currencies - notably for dollar-based investors - but not for all, specifically not the euro. Also, the extent to which global factors have weighed on the Swiss franc exchange rate has varied over the sample period and appears more subdued in the global low interest rate environment of the last decade.

Suggested Citation

  • Mathias Hoffmann & Rahel Suter, 2010. "The Swiss Franc Exchange Rate and Deviations from Uncovered Interest Parity: Global vs Domestic Factors," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 146(I), pages 349-371, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:ses:arsjes:2010-i-15
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. David R. Haab & Thomas Nitschka, 2020. "Carry trade and forward premium puzzle from the perspective of a safe‐haven currency," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(2), pages 376-394, May.
    2. Dr. Thomas Nitschka, 2014. "The Good? The Bad? The Ugly? Which news drive (co)variation in Swiss and US bond and stock excess returns?," Working Papers 2014-01, Swiss National Bank.
    3. Dr. Thomas Nitschka, 2014. "Have investors been looking for exposure to specific countries since the global financial crisis? - Insights from the Swiss franc bond market," Working Papers 2014-13, Swiss National Bank.
    4. Lars P. Feld & Ekkehard A. Köhler, 2015. "Is Switzerland an Interest Rate Island after all? Time Series and Non-Linear Switching Regime Evidence," CESifo Working Paper Series 5628, CESifo.
    5. Janani Sri S. & Parthajit Kayal & G. Balasubramanian, 2022. "Can Equity be Safe-haven for Investment?," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 21(1), pages 32-63, March.
    6. Philippe Bacchetta & Kenza Benhima & Jean-Paul Renne, 2022. "Understanding Swiss real interest rates in a financially globalized world," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 158(1), pages 1-17, December.
    7. Markus Hertrich, 2022. "Foreign exchange interventions under a minimum exchange rate regime and the Swiss franc," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(2), pages 450-489, May.
    8. Virginie Coudert & Cyriac Guillaumin & Hélène Raymond, 2014. "Looking at the other side of carry trades: Are there any safe haven currencies?," Working Papers hal-04141355, HAL.
    9. Pınar Yeşin, 2017. "Capital Flows and the Swiss Franc," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 153(4), pages 403-436, October.
    10. Kevin Ross & Tommaso Mancini Griffoli, 2010. "Discussion: The Swiss Franc Exchange Rate and Deviations from Uncovered Interest Parity: Global vs Domestic Factors," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 146(I), pages 373-384, March.
    11. Grisse, Christian & Nitschka, Thomas, 2015. "On financial risk and the safe haven characteristics of Swiss franc exchange rates," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 153-164.
    12. Thomas Nitschka, 2014. "What News Drive Variation in Swiss and US Bond and Stock Excess Returns?," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 150(II), pages 89-118, June.
    13. Tachibana, Minoru, 2018. "Safe-haven and hedge currencies for the US, UK, and Euro area stock markets: A copula-based approach," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 82-96.
    14. Thomas Nitschka, 2016. "Risk premia on Swiss government bonds and sectoral stock indexes during international crises:," Aussenwirtschaft, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science, Swiss Institute for International Economics and Applied Economics Research, vol. 67(02), pages 51-67, August.
    15. Alexandra Janssen & Rahel Studer, 2014. "The Swiss franc's honeymoon," ECON - Working Papers 170, Department of Economics - University of Zurich, revised Jan 2017.
    16. Dr. Fabian Fink & Dr. Lukas Frei & Dr. Oliver Gloede, 2020. "Short-term determinants of bilateral exchange rates: A decomposition model for the Swiss franc," Working Papers 2020-21, Swiss National Bank.
    17. Irineu Carvalho Filho, 2015. "Risk-Off Episodes and Swiss Franc Appreciation: The Role of Capital Flows," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 16(4), pages 439-463, November.
    18. Parthajit Kayal & Janani Sri SG, 2020. "Going Beyond Gold: Can Equities be Safe-Haven?," Working Papers 2020-203, Madras School of Economics,Chennai,India.
    19. Fink, Fabian & Frei, Lukas & Gloede, Oliver, 2022. "Global risk sentiment and the Swiss franc: A time-varying daily factor decomposition model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    20. Jessica Leutert, 2018. "The Swiss franc safety premium," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 154(1), pages 1-21, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Currency risk; exchange rate; save haven effects; uncovered interest parity (UIP);
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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