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Urban Unemployment; A Causal Modelling Approach

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  • Douglas Mair

    (Department of Economics at Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh)

  • Anne G. Miller

    (Department of Economics at Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh)

Abstract

Intra-urban variations in male unemployment are hypothesised to depend on residential variations in the personal characteristics of adult males, (age, marital status, family size, skill level, housing tenure), and local characteristics, (manufacturing employment, the number of married working women, and unemployment in previous years). A causal modelling approach is adopted, in which the nature and direction of the causal relationships between the highly correlated personal and local characteristics are carefully specified a priori. The hypothesised linkages between the standardised variables are tested in a systematic manner, using step-wise regression, yielding beta-coefficients. Post-code Sector data, for 29 Scottish cities and towns, from the Small Areas Statistics of the 1971 and 1981 Censuses of Population, were analysed as a whole, and in seven subsets: 4 cities, Strathclyde excluding Glasgow, new towns, and the rest of Scotland. The typical pattern suggests that unemployment is related to lack of skill, number of dependents, and manufacturing employment, but not to youthfulness, council housing tenure, nor to previous unemployment. However, the disaggregated analyses show considerable variation, confirming that relationships are highly specific to location. Thus policy recommendations should be tailored to the local situation.

Suggested Citation

  • Douglas Mair & Anne G. Miller, 1989. "Urban Unemployment; A Causal Modelling Approach," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 26(4), pages 379-396, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:urbstu:v:26:y:1989:i:4:p:379-396
    DOI: 10.1080/00420988920080421
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mair, Douglas, 1981. "Urban Unemployment: A Comment [Urban Unemployment in England]," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 91(361), pages 224-230, March.
    2. Nickell, Stephen J, 1980. "A Picture of Male Unemployment in Britain," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 90(363), pages 776-794, December.
    3. Evans, Alan W & Richardson, Ray, 1981. "Urban Unemployment: Interpretation and Additional Evidence," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 28(2), pages 107-124, June.
    4. David Metcalf, 1975. "Urban Unemployment in England," Working Papers 442, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    5. Metcalf, David, 1975. "Urban Unemployment in England," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 85(339), pages 578-589, September.
    6. repec:pri:indrel:dsp01bz60cw25r is not listed on IDEAS
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