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Area Policy Impacts: A Multiplier Analysis of GEAR

Author

Listed:
  • A.G.M. Nairn

    (Department of Urban and Regional Planning, University of Strathclyde)

  • J.K. Swales

    (Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde)

Abstract

This paper attempts to quantify the employment and income effects of the Glasgow Eastern Area Renewal (GEAR) programme on its target area. This is done using an augmented Keynesian multiplier approach. The multiplier model is adjusted to take into account the particular characteristics of the injection and the fact that the target area is small and well-integrated within a large conurbation. The results are disaggregated so that the impact of each element of the programme is separately-identified, and the overall results are subject to sensitivity analysis. Although the estimated increases in employment and income are large in absolute terms, they are small relative to the decline that immediately preceded the introduction of the GEAR programme.

Suggested Citation

  • A.G.M. Nairn & J.K. Swales, 1987. "Area Policy Impacts: A Multiplier Analysis of GEAR," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 24(1), pages 31-45, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:urbstu:v:24:y:1987:i:1:p:31-45
    DOI: 10.1080/00420988720080031
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sinclair, M Thea & Sutcliffe, Charles M S, 1978. "The First Round of the Keynesian Regional Income Multiplier," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 25(2), pages 177-186, June.
    2. Brownrigg, Mark, 1971. "The Regional Income Multiplier: An Attempt to Complete the Model," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 18(3), pages 281-297, November.
    3. B Ashcroft & J K Swales, 1982. "The Importance of the First round in the Multiplier Process: The Impact of Civil Service Dispersal," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 14(4), pages 429-444, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Alessandra Faggian & Bianca Biagi, 2003. "Measuring Regional Multipliers: a Comparison between two Different Methodologies for the case of the italian Regions," SCIENZE REGIONALI, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2003(1).
    2. Utis Kaothien, 1991. "Regional and Urbanisation Policy in Thailand: The Tertiary Sector as a Leading Sector in Regional Development," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 28(6), pages 1027-1043, December.
    3. Paul Foley, 1992. "Local Economic Policy and Job Creation: A Review of Evaluation Studies," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 29(3-4), pages 557-598, May.
    4. Paul Coomes & Dennis Olson & John Merchant, 1991. "Using a Metropolitan-area Econometric Model to Analyse Economic Development Proposals," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 28(3), pages 369-382, June.

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