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Factors Affecting International Tourism Flows to Turkey: A Gravity Model Approach

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  • Mehmet EryiÄŸit

    (Department of Management, Abant Izzet Baysal University, 14280-Bolu, Turkey)

  • ErdoÄŸan Kotil

    (Department of Economics, Abant Izzet Baysal University, 14280-Bolu, Turkey)

  • Resul EryiÄŸit

    (Department of Physics, Abant Izzet Baysal University, 14280-Bolu, Turkey)

Abstract

A gravity-based modelling effort is undertaken to analyse the factors affecting the numbers of international tourists visiting Turkey from the top 11 originating countries for 1995–2005. It is found that an eight-factor model (GDP per capita, tourism climate index, population of the originating country, tourism price index, distance, earthquake, neighbouring country, September 11 terrorist attacks) can explain most of the data. The usual negative distance effect and the tourism climate index are found to be the most important indicators of the magnitude of tourism flows. An unexpected finding, however, is the relative insignificance of the Iraq War dummy.

Suggested Citation

  • Mehmet EryiÄŸit & ErdoÄŸan Kotil & Resul EryiÄŸit, 2010. "Factors Affecting International Tourism Flows to Turkey: A Gravity Model Approach," Tourism Economics, , vol. 16(3), pages 585-595, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:toueco:v:16:y:2010:i:3:p:585-595
    DOI: 10.5367/000000010792278374
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Angeliki N. Menegaki & Nicholas Tsounis & George M. Agiomirgianakis, 2022. "The economic impact of climate change (CC) on the Greek economy," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 24(6), pages 8145-8161, June.
    3. Jong, Meng-Chang & Hong, Puah & Arip, Mohammad Affendy, 2020. "Modelling Tourism Demand: An Augmented Gravity Model," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 54(2), pages 105-112.
    4. Hasan Gül & Selim Çaǧatay, 2015. "Impact Analysis of Demand-Driven Shocks in Turkey's Tourism Industry within the Framework of the Social Accounting Matrix," Tourism Economics, , vol. 21(1), pages 33-48, February.
    5. Santeramo, Fabio Gaetano & Morelli, Mariangela, 2015. "Enhancing the foreign demand for agritourism," Politica Agricola Internazionale - International Agricultural Policy, Edizioni L'Informatore Agrario, vol. 2014(2), pages 1-10, October.
    6. Santeramo, Fabio Gaetano & Barbieri, Carla, 2015. "On the demand for agritourism: a cursory review of methodologies and practice," MPRA Paper 68177, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Nicolau, Juan Luis, 2011. "El efecto de la participación en actividades de ocio sobre la influencia de la distancia en la elección de destinos/When the Enrollment in Recreational Activities Changes Distance Sensitivity to Desti," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 29, pages 803-824, Diciembre.
    8. Donald Lien & Sucharita Ghosh & Steven Yamarik, 2014. "Does the Confucius institute impact international travel to China? A panel data analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(17), pages 1985-1995, June.
    9. De Vita, Glauco, 2014. "The long-run impact of exchange rate regimes on international tourism flows," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 226-233.
    10. Mehmet Balcilar & Sahar Aghazadeh & George N Ike, 2021. "Modelling the employment, income and price elasticities of outbound tourism demand in OECD countries," Tourism Economics, , vol. 27(5), pages 971-990, August.
    11. Visar MALAJ, 2020. "Gravity-model specification for tourism flows: the case of Albania," CES Working Papers, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 12(2), pages 144-155, September.
    12. Wai Hong Kan Tsui & Faruk Balli & David Tat Wei Tan & Oscar Lau & Mudassar Hasan, 2018. "New Zealand business tourism," Tourism Economics, , vol. 24(4), pages 386-417, June.
    13. Ali Asgary & Ali Ihsan Ozdemir, 2020. "Global risks and tourism industry in Turkey," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 54(5), pages 1513-1536, December.
    14. Recep Ulucak & Ali Gökhan Yücel & Salih Çağrı İlkay, 2020. "Dynamics of tourism demand in Turkey: Panel data analysis using gravity model," Tourism Economics, , vol. 26(8), pages 1394-1414, December.
    15. Jong, Meng-Chang, 2020. "Empirical Review on Tourism Demand and COVID-19," MPRA Paper 103919, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Christopher Vierhaus, 2019. "The international tourism effect of hosting the Olympic Games and the FIFA World Cup," Tourism Economics, , vol. 25(7), pages 1009-1028, November.
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    18. Ahmed Muhamad Omer & Mehmet Yeşiltaş, 2020. "“Modeling the impact of wars and terrorism on tourism demand in Kurdistan region of Iraq”," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 19(3), pages 301-322, September.

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