IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/endesu/v24y2022i6d10.1007_s10668-021-01776-4.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The economic impact of climate change (CC) on the Greek economy

Author

Listed:
  • Angeliki N. Menegaki

    (Agricultural University of Athens
    Cyprus Open University
    Open University)

  • Nicholas Tsounis

    (Open University
    University of Western Macedonia)

  • George M. Agiomirgianakis

    (Open University)

Abstract

The considerable relevant size of the tourism sector for some economies, together with this sector's vulnerability to CC, renders this study an insightful aid to tourism demand forecasting. The paper applies a pooled mean group (PMG) model to identify climate parameters that affect tourism demand. Then, it continues with an input–output table analysis to show the transmission effects of CC on each component of the tourism sector. The PMG model imposes homogeneity on the long-run coefficients and while less restrictive, it is more efficient than other methods of the same family. The estimated gravity equation enables comparisons of the baseline scenario with various different scenarios of CC and finds how tourist arrivals could be affected up to 2080. Our results suggest that there is mostly a positive relationship of the squared difference of temperature and precipitation between Greece and tourist origin countries. Our findings also suggest that CC could lead to a fall in Greek GDP between 1.79 and 2.61%. We believe that our findings will help design appropriate policy actions that may offset or alleviate these negative future negative impacts of CC.

Suggested Citation

  • Angeliki N. Menegaki & Nicholas Tsounis & George M. Agiomirgianakis, 2022. "The economic impact of climate change (CC) on the Greek economy," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 24(6), pages 8145-8161, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:endesu:v:24:y:2022:i:6:d:10.1007_s10668-021-01776-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s10668-021-01776-4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10668-021-01776-4
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10668-021-01776-4?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mehmet EryiÄŸit & ErdoÄŸan Kotil & Resul EryiÄŸit, 2010. "Factors Affecting International Tourism Flows to Turkey: A Gravity Model Approach," Tourism Economics, , vol. 16(3), pages 585-595, September.
    2. Pedro Pintassilgo & Jaume Rosselló & Maria Santana-Gallego & Elisabeth Valle, 2016. "The economic dimension of climate change impacts on tourism," Tourism Economics, , vol. 22(4), pages 685-698, August.
    3. Morley, Clive & Rosselló, Jaume & Santana-Gallego, Maria, 2014. "Gravity models for tourism demand: theory and use," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 1-10.
    4. Christian Bayer & Christoph Hanck, 2013. "Combining non-cointegration tests," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(1), pages 83-95, January.
    5. Agiomirgianakis, George & Serenis, Dimitrios & Tsounis, Nicholas, 2017. "Effective timing of tourism policy: The case of Singapore," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 29-38.
    6. Mohammad ALAWIN & Ziad ABU-LILA, 2016. "Uncertainty and Gravity Model for International Tourism Demand in Jordan: Evidence from Panel-GARCH Model," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 16(1).
    7. Halicioglu, Ferda, 2007. "Residential electricity demand dynamics in Turkey," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 199-210, March.
    8. Maritza Elizabeth Bermeo Velasquez & Jinhwan Oh, 2013. "What determines international tourist arrivals to Peru? A gravity approach," International Area Studies Review, Center for International Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, vol. 16(4), pages 357-369, December.
    9. Massidda, Carla & Etzo, Ivan, 2012. "The determinants of Italian domestic tourism: A panel data analysis," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 603-610.
    10. Christoph Vietze, 2012. "Cultural Effects on Inbound Tourism into the USA: A Gravity Approach," Tourism Economics, , vol. 18(1), pages 121-138, February.
    11. Alfred A. Haug, 2002. "Temporal Aggregation and the Power of Cointegration Tests: a Monte Carlo Study," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 64(4), pages 399-412, September.
    12. Rahman, Mohammad Mafizur & Kashem, Mohammad Abul, 2017. "Carbon emissions, energy consumption and industrial growth in Bangladesh: Empirical evidence from ARDL cointegration and Granger causality analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 600-608.
    13. Tsounis, Nicholas, 2003. "The Validity of Bilateral Heckscher-Ohlin: Some Further Empirical Evidence," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 56(1), pages 119-136.
    14. Davide Provenzano, 2015. "A Dynamic Analysis of Tourism Determinants in Sicily," Tourism Economics, , vol. 21(3), pages 441-454, June.
    15. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    16. Ulrich Gunter & Egon Smeral, 2016. "The decline of tourism income elasticities in a global context," Tourism Economics, , vol. 22(3), pages 466-483, June.
    17. Sofia Gouveia & João Rebelo & Lina Lourenço-Gomes & Alexandre Guedes, 2017. "International demand for the Douro (Portugal) river cruises," Tourism Economics, , vol. 23(8), pages 1679-1686, December.
    18. Detlef Vuuren & Jae Edmonds & Mikiko Kainuma & Keywan Riahi & Allison Thomson & Kathy Hibbard & George Hurtt & Tom Kram & Volker Krey & Jean-Francois Lamarque & Toshihiko Masui & Malte Meinshausen & N, 2011. "The representative concentration pathways: an overview," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 5-31, November.
    19. Michailidou, Alexandra V. & Vlachokostas, Christos & Moussiopoulos, Νicolas, 2016. "Interactions between climate change and the tourism sector: Multiple-criteria decision analysis to assess mitigation and adaptation options in tourism areas," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 1-12.
    20. Ding Du & Pin Ng, 2018. "The impact of climate change on tourism economies of Greece, Spain, and Turkey," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 20(2), pages 431-449, April.
    21. Angeliki N. Menegaki, 2019. "The ARDL Method in the Energy-Growth Nexus Field; Best Implementation Strategies," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-16, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jaume Rosselló Nadal & María Santana Gallego, 2022. "Gravity models for tourism demand modeling: Empirical review and outlook," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(5), pages 1358-1409, December.
    2. Angeliki N. Menegaki, 2019. "The ARDL Method in the Energy-Growth Nexus Field; Best Implementation Strategies," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-16, October.
    3. Recep Ulucak & Ali Gökhan Yücel & Salih Çağrı İlkay, 2020. "Dynamics of tourism demand in Turkey: Panel data analysis using gravity model," Tourism Economics, , vol. 26(8), pages 1394-1414, December.
    4. Nesrine Dardouri & Abdelkader Aguir & Ramzi Farhani & Mounir Smida, 2023. "Revisiting the Determinants of Investment- The Case of Tunisia," Post-Print hal-04101430, HAL.
    5. Theodosios Anastasios Perifanis, 2022. "The Macroeconomic Results of Diligent Resource Revenues Management: The Norwegian Case," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-14, February.
    6. Muhammad Shahbaz & Mete Feridun, 2012. "Electricity consumption and economic growth empirical evidence from Pakistan," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 46(5), pages 1583-1599, August.
    7. Islam, Md. Monirul & Irfan, Muhammad & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2022. "Renewable and non-renewable energy consumption in Bangladesh: The relative influencing profiles of economic factors, urbanization, physical infrastructure and institutional quality," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 1130-1149.
    8. Tekleselassie, Tsegay Gebrekidan, 2016. "Three essays on the impact of institutions and policies on socio-economic outcomes," Economics PhD Theses 1316, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    9. Muzammil, Muhammad, 2015. "Impact of Financial Development on Trade Balance: An ARDL Cointegration and Causality Approach for Pakistan," MPRA Paper 68587, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Loganathan, Nanthakumar & Muzaffar, Ahmed Taneem & Ahmed, Khalid & Ali Jabran, Muhammad, 2016. "How urbanization affects CO2 emissions in Malaysia? The application of STIRPAT model," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 83-93.
    11. Jong, Meng-Chang, 2020. "Empirical Review on Tourism Demand and COVID-19," MPRA Paper 103919, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Akber, Nusrat & Paltasingh, Kirtti Ranjan & Mishra, Ashok K., 2022. "How can public policy encourage private investments in Indian agriculture? Input subsidies vs. public investment," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    13. Sohail Amjed & Iqtidar Ali Shah & Adnan Riaz, 2022. "Investigating the Interactive Role of Demand Side Factors Potentially Responsible for Energy Crisis in Pakistan," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 12(3), pages 236-246, May.
    14. Dong Mu & Salman Hanif & Khalid Mehmood Alam & Omer Hanif, 2022. "A Correlative Study of Modern Logistics Industry in Developing Economy and Carbon Emission Using ARDL: A Case of Pakistan," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-18, February.
    15. Ahmad, Ashfaq & Zhao, Yuhuan & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Bano, Sadia & Zhang, Zhonghua & Wang, Song & Liu, Ya, 2016. "Carbon emissions, energy consumption and economic growth: An aggregate and disaggregate analysis of the Indian economy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 131-143.
    16. Sudeshna Ghosh, 2019. "Environmental Pollution, Income Inequality, and Household Energy Consumption: Evidence from the United Kingdom," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 10(02), pages 1-31, June.
    17. Avishek Khanal & Mohammad Mafizur Rahman & Rasheda Khanam & Eswaran Velayutham, 2021. "Are Tourism and Energy Consumption Linked? Evidence from Australia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(19), pages 1-20, September.
    18. Muhammad Ahad, 2017. "Impact of Financial Development on Trade Balance: An ARDL Cointegration and Causality Approach for Pakistan," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 18(5), pages 1199-1214, October.
    19. Adil Saleem & Judit Sági & Budi Setiawan, 2021. "Islamic Financial Depth, Financial Intermediation, and Sustainable Economic Growth: ARDL Approach," Economies, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-22, April.
    20. Md. Samsul Alam & Syed Ali Raza & Muhammad Shahbaz & Qaisar Abbas, 2016. "Accounting for Contribution of Trade Openness and Foreign Direct Investment in Life Expectancy: The Long-Run and Short-Run Analysis in Pakistan," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 129(3), pages 1155-1170, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:endesu:v:24:y:2022:i:6:d:10.1007_s10668-021-01776-4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.