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Estimation of Outbound Italian Tourism Demand: A Monthly Dynamic EC-LAIDS Model

Author

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  • Isabel Cortés-Jiménez

    (Christel DeHaan Tourism and Travel Research Institute and AQR-IREA, Nottingham University Business School, Jubilee Campus, Nottingham NG8 1BB, UK)

  • Ramesh Durbarry

    (School of Sustainable Development and Tourism, University of Technology, Mauritius, La Tour Koenig, Pointe aux Sables, Mauritius)

  • Manuela Pulina

Abstract

An almost ideal demand system with monthly frequency, in both long-run and dynamic forms, is used to quantify the responsiveness of Italian tourism demand to changes in relative prices, exchange rates, expenditure and unexpected one-off events in four main European destinations. Short-term elasticities, which are crucial for policies regarding own price, as well as cross prices and expenditure elasticities are derived from the dynamic model. It is also found that the dynamic model outperforms the long-run model in forecasting accuracy. This paper provides useful information for policymakers to maintain high market shares of Italian tourism demand.

Suggested Citation

  • Isabel Cortés-Jiménez & Ramesh Durbarry & Manuela Pulina, 2009. "Estimation of Outbound Italian Tourism Demand: A Monthly Dynamic EC-LAIDS Model," Tourism Economics, , vol. 15(3), pages 547-565, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:toueco:v:15:y:2009:i:3:p:547-565
    DOI: 10.5367/000000009789036594
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Chia-Lin Chang & Thanchanok Khamkaew & Michael McAleer, 2010. "Estimating Price Effects in an Almost Ideal Demand Model of Outbound Thai Tourism to East Asia," Working Papers in Economics 10/11, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
    2. Meleddu, Marta & Pulina, Manuela, 2016. "Evaluation of individuals’ intention to pay a premium price for ecotourism: An exploratory study," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 67-78.
    3. Li, Gang & Song, Haiyan & Cao, Zheng & Wu, Doris Chenguang, 2013. "How competitive is Hong Kong against its competitors? An econometric study," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 247-256.
    4. Cellini, Roberto & Cuccia, Tiziana, 2014. "The Tourism Industry in Italy during the Great Recession (2008-12): What Data Show and Suggest," MPRA Paper 62473, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Feb 2015.
    5. Saayman, Andrea & Viljoen, Armand & Saayman, Melville, 2018. "Africa’s outbound tourism: An Almost Ideal Demand System perspective," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 141-158.
    6. Etzo, Ivan & Massidda, Carla & Piras, Romano, 2014. "Migration and outbound tourism: Evidence from Italy," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 235-249.
    7. Neelu Seetaram, 2012. "Estimating Demand Elasticities for Australia's International Outbound Tourism," Tourism Economics, , vol. 18(5), pages 999-1017, October.
    8. Mehmet Balcilar & Sahar Aghazadeh & George N Ike, 2021. "Modelling the employment, income and price elasticities of outbound tourism demand in OECD countries," Tourism Economics, , vol. 27(5), pages 971-990, August.
    9. Marie-Louise Mangion & Chris Cooper & Isabel Cortés-Jimenez & Ramesh Durbarry, 2012. "Measuring the Effect of Subsidization on Tourism Demand and Destination Competitiveness through the AIDS Model: An Evidence-Based Approach to Tourism Policymaking," Tourism Economics, , vol. 18(6), pages 1251-1272, December.
    10. Balli, Faruk & Ghassan, Hassan & Al-Jeefri, Hisham, 2016. "Toward Understanding Outbound GCC International Tourism: The Role of Expatriates and Institutional Quality," MPRA Paper 91177, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jul 2017.
    11. Gianluca Cafiso & Roberto Cellini & Tiziana Cuccia, 2015. "Do Economic Crises Lead Tourists to Closer Destinations? An Analysis of Italy's Regional Data," CESifo Working Paper Series 5250, CESifo.
    12. William Addessi & Bianca Biagi & Maria Giovanna Brandano, 2019. "Evaluating the effect of the introduction of the euro on tourist flows: A synthetic control approach," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(5), pages 1554-1575, May.
    13. Gholipour, Hassan Fereidouni & Tajaddini, Reza & Al-mulali, Usama, 2014. "Does personal freedom influence outbound tourism?," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 19-25.

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