IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/mareco/v9y2015i2p133-156.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Fiscal Sustainability of India’s National Food Security Act 2013

Author

Listed:
  • Krishanu Pradhan

    (The author is a Research Scholar at the Centre of Economics Studies and Policy, Institute for Social and Economic Change (ISEC), Bangalore, India, email: krishanup@gmail.com)

Abstract

Forward-looking approaches to fiscal sustainability generally assess the fiscal implications of future programme-specific expenditure. This article attempts to assess the future fiscal implications of the National Food Security Act (NFSA), 2013, for the Indian economy. The results, under the baseline scenario based on the projected debt–GDP ratio, indicate a modest increase till 2021–22 and then debt/GDP declines towards the current level of 70% in 2012–13, signifying fiscal sustainability. The dynamics of the projected baseline debt–GDP ratio are largely shaped by the provisions of the Act and underlying demographic factors during the projection horizon. Sensitivity analysis under different assumptions about productivity growth, the interest on government borrowing and primary deficit–GDP ratios show mixed results and hence provide necessary policy pointers towards restoring fiscal sustainability under the Act. Keeping the primary deficit–GDP ratio below 1.5 per cent through periodic upwards revisions in the issue price of food grains, as envisaged in the Act, coupled with higher productivity growth and lower interest on government debt, would ensure long-term fiscal sustainability of the Act. JEL Classification: H24, H62, H68, J11, Q18

Suggested Citation

  • Krishanu Pradhan, 2015. "Fiscal Sustainability of India’s National Food Security Act 2013," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 9(2), pages 133-156, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:mareco:v:9:y:2015:i:2:p:133-156
    DOI: 10.1177/0973801014568144
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0973801014568144
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/0973801014568144?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Buiter, Willem H. & Patel, Urjit R., 1992. "Debt, deficits, and inflation: An application to the public finances of India," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 171-205, March.
    2. António Afonso, 2005. "Fiscal Sustainability: The Unpleasant European Case," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 61(1), pages 19-44, March.
    3. Alan J. Auerbach, 1994. "The US Fiscal Problem: Where We Are, How We Got Here, and Where We're Going," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1994, Volume 9, pages 141-186, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Rangarajan, C. & Srivastava, D.K., 2005. "Fiscal deficits and government debt in India: Implications for growth and stabilisation," Working Papers 05/35, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    5. repec:npf:wpaper:35 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. repec:lib:00johs:v:14:y:2018:i:1:p:5-10 is not listed on IDEAS

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pradhan, Krishanu, 2014. "Fiscal sustainability of national food security act, 2013 in India," Working Papers 332, Institute for Social and Economic Change, Bangalore.
    2. Krishanu Pradhan, 2014. "Is India’s Public Debt Sustainable?," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 3(2), pages 241-266, December.
    3. Mohanty, Ranjan Kumar & Panda, Sidheswar, 2019. "How Does Public Debt affect the Indian Macroeconomy? A Structural VAR Approach," Working Papers 19/250, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    4. Pradhan, Krishanu, 2014. "Is India's public debt sustainable?," Working Papers 311, Institute for Social and Economic Change, Bangalore.
    5. Ranjan Kumar Mohanty & Sidheswar Panda, 2020. "How Does Public Debt Affect the Indian Macroeconomy? A Structural VAR Approach," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 14(3), pages 253-284, August.
    6. P.S. Renjith & K.R. Shanmugam, 2018. "Sustainable Debt Policies of Indian State Governments," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 12(2), pages 224-243, May.
    7. Ata Ozkaya, 2013. "The Effects of Debt Intolerance and Public Debt Sustainability on Credit Ratings: Evidence From European Economies," Working Papers 011, Bahcesehir University, Betam.
    8. Ata Ozkaya, 2013. "Public Debt Stock Sustainability in Selected OECD Countries," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 13(1), pages 31-49.
    9. Ranjan Kumar Mohanty & Sidheswar Panda, 2019. "How Does Public Debt Affect the Indian Macroeconomy? A Structural VAR Approach," Working Papers id:12980, eSocialSciences.
    10. Olaoye, Olumide Olusegun & Olomola, P.A., 2022. "Empirical analysis of asymmetry phenomenon in the public debt structure of Sub-Saharan Africa's five biggest economies: A Markov-Switching model," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 25(C).
    11. Debi Prasad Bal & Badri Narayan Rath, 2016. "Is Public Debt a Burden for India?," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 35(2), pages 184-201, June.
    12. Das, Panchanan, 2016. "Debt Dynamics, Fiscal Deficit, and Stability in Government Borrowing in India: A Dynamic Panel Analysis," ADBI Working Papers 557, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    13. Olumide Olusegun Olaoye & Phillip A. Olomola, 2023. "Sub‐Saharan Africa's rising public debt stock: Is there a cause for concern?," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 91(1), pages 85-115, March.
    14. M. R. Anantha Ramu, 2021. "Public debt sustainability in sub-national level: a case of Karnataka," Indian Economic Review, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 463-485, December.
    15. António Afonso, 2007. "An Avenue for Expansionary Fiscal Contractions," The IUP Journal of Public Finance, IUP Publications, vol. 0(3), pages 7-15, August.
    16. D’Erasmo, P. & Mendoza, E.G. & Zhang, J., 2016. "What is a Sustainable Public Debt?," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2493-2597, Elsevier.
    17. Onel, Gulcan & Utkulu, Utku, 2006. "Modeling the long-run sustainability of Turkish external debt with structural changes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 669-682, July.
    18. Anton Velinov, 2014. "Assessing the Sustainability of Government Debt: On the Different States of the Debt/GDP Process," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1359, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    19. Munawar-Shah, Syed & Abdul-Majid, Mariani & Hussain-Shah, Syed, 2014. "Assessing Fiscal Sustainability for SAARC and IMT-GT Countries," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 5(2), pages 26-40.
    20. Goyal, Rajan & Khundrakpam, J. K. & Ray, Partha, 2004. "Is India's public finance unsustainable? Or, are the claims exaggerated?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 401-420, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Food Subsidy; Fiscal Deficits; Fiscal Projection; Budget Deficits; Demographic Transition; Food Security;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H24 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy; Animal Welfare Policy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:mareco:v:9:y:2015:i:2:p:133-156. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.ncaer.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.