IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/inecre/v56y2021i2d10.1007_s41775-021-00114-9.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Public debt sustainability in sub-national level: a case of Karnataka

Author

Listed:
  • M. R. Anantha Ramu

    (Government of Karnataka)

Abstract

This paper attempts to empirically measure the public debt sustainability of Karnataka State in India for the period starting from 1991 to 2018. Three well-established methods are adopted to measure public debt sustainability, namely, indicator approach, time series approach and sensitivity analysis. The indicator approach shows that Karnataka’s public debt satisfies Domer (1944) debt sustainability condition. Both the unit root test and fiscal policy response function under the time series approach revealed that public debt is sustainable and the response function is positive and significant in the post-fiscal reform period. Forward-looking sensitivity analysis has indicated public debt sustainability even after including growth rate and interest rate risks. Fiscal distress caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and corrective measures taken by Karnataka state is also discussed in the paper.

Suggested Citation

  • M. R. Anantha Ramu, 2021. "Public debt sustainability in sub-national level: a case of Karnataka," Indian Economic Review, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 463-485, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:inecre:v:56:y:2021:i:2:d:10.1007_s41775-021-00114-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s41775-021-00114-9
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s41775-021-00114-9
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s41775-021-00114-9?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. António Afonso & Christophe Rault, 2010. "What do we really know about fiscal sustainability in the EU? A panel data diagnostic," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 145(4), pages 731-755, January.
    2. Buiter, Willem H. & Patel, Urjit R., 1992. "Debt, deficits, and inflation: An application to the public finances of India," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 171-205, March.
    3. Adams, Charles & Ferrarini, Benno & Park, Donghyun, 2010. "Fiscal Sustainability in Developing Asia," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 205, Asian Development Bank.
    4. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    5. Barro, Robert J, 1979. "On the Determination of the Public Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 940-971, October.
    6. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    7. Debi Prasad Bal & Badri Narayan Rath, 2014. "Public debt and economic growth in India: A reassessment," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 292-300.
    8. Merih Uctum & Thom Thurston & Remzi Uctum, 2006. "Public Debt, the Unit Root Hypothesis and Structural Breaks: A Multi‐Country Analysis," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 73(289), pages 129-156, February.
    9. Vogelsang, Timothy J & Perron, Pierre, 1998. "Additional Tests for a Unit Root Allowing for a Break in the Trend Function at an Unknown Time," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 1073-1100, November.
    10. Ranjan Kumar Mohanty & Sidheswar Panda, 2019. "How Does Public Debt Affect the Indian Macroeconomy? A Structural VAR Approach," Working Papers id:12980, eSocialSciences.
    11. Pradhan, Krishanu, 2014. "Is India's public debt sustainable?," Working Papers 311, Institute for Social and Economic Change, Bangalore.
    12. Mohanty, Ranjan Kumar & Panda, Sidheswar, 2019. "How Does Public Debt affect the Indian Macroeconomy? A Structural VAR Approach," Working Papers 19/250, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    13. Rangarajan, C. & Srivastava, D.K., 2005. "Fiscal deficits and government debt in India: Implications for growth and stabilisation," Working Papers 05/35, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    14. Goyal, Rajan & Khundrakpam, J. K. & Ray, Partha, 2004. "Is India's public finance unsustainable? Or, are the claims exaggerated?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 401-420, April.
    15. repec:npf:wpaper:35 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Raghbendra Jha & Anurag Sharma, 2001. "Structural Breaks and Unit Roots: A Further Test of the Sustainability of the Indian Fiscal Deficit," ASARC Working Papers 2001-08, The Australian National University, Australia South Asia Research Centre.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. António Afonso & João Tovar Jalles, 2012. "Revisiting fiscal sustainability: panel cointegration and structural breaks in OECD countries," Working Papers Department of Economics 2012/29, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    2. P.S. Renjith & K.R. Shanmugam, 2018. "Sustainable Debt Policies of Indian State Governments," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 12(2), pages 224-243, May.
    3. K. R. Shanmugam & P.S. Renjith, 2023. "Sustainability and Threshold Value of Public Debt of Centre and All State Governments in India," Working Papers 2023-240, Madras School of Economics,Chennai,India.
    4. Shruti SHASTRI & A.K. GIRI & Geetilaxmi MOHAPATRA, 2017. "An empirical assessment of fiscal sustainability for selected South Asian economies," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(1(610), S), pages 163-178, Spring.
    5. António Afonso & João Jalles, 2014. "A longer-run perspective on fiscal sustainability," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 41(4), pages 821-847, November.
    6. Mohanty, Ranjan Kumar & Panda, Sidheswar, 2019. "How Does Public Debt affect the Indian Macroeconomy? A Structural VAR Approach," Working Papers 19/250, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    7. Chen, Shyh-Wei, 2014. "Testing for fiscal sustainability: New evidence from the G-7 and some European countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 1-15.
    8. Abderrahim Chibi & Sidi Mohamed Chekouri & Mohamed Benbouziane, 2019. "The dynamics of fiscal policy in Algeria: sustainability and structural change," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 8(1), pages 1-27, December.
    9. Chen, Shyh-Wei & Wu, An-Chi, 2018. "Is there a bubble component in government debt? New international evidence," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 467-486.
    10. Thanh Dat Nguyen & Sandy Suardi & Chew Lian Chua, 2017. "The Behavior Of U.S. Public Debt And Deficits During The Global Financial Crisis," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 35(1), pages 201-215, January.
    11. António Afonso & João Tovar Jalles, 2016. "The elusive character of fiscal sustainability," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(28), pages 2651-2664, June.
    12. Mariam Camarero & Juan Sapena & Cecilio Tamarit, 2020. "Modelling Time-Varying Parameters in Panel Data State-Space Frameworks: An Application to the Feldstein–Horioka Puzzle," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 56(1), pages 87-114, June.
    13. John Dawson & Amit Sen, 2007. "New evidence on the convergence of international income from a group of 29 countries," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 33(2), pages 199-230, September.
    14. Brittle, Shane, 2009. "Ricardian Equivalence and the Efficacy of Fiscal Policy in Australia," Economics Working Papers wp09-10, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
    15. Marcus Box & Karl Gratzer & Xiang Lin, 2020. "Destructive entrepreneurship in the small business sector: bankruptcy fraud in Sweden, 1830–2010," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 437-457, February.
    16. Mariam Camarero & Josep Lluís Carrion-i-Silvestre & Cecilio Tamarit, 2004. "Testing for hysteresis in unemployment in OECD countries. New evidence using stationarity panel tests with breaks†," Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces 2004/40, Centro de Estudios Andaluces.
    17. Cavaliere, Giuseppe & Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2011. "Testing For Unit Roots In The Presence Of A Possible Break In Trend And Nonstationary Volatility," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(5), pages 957-991, October.
    18. Popp, Stephan, 2007. "Identification of the true break date in innovational outlier unit root tests," IBES Diskussionsbeiträge 152, University of Duisburg-Essen, Institute of Business and Economic Studie (IBES).
    19. Alvaro Pereira & João Jalles & Martin Andresen, 2012. "Structural change and foreign direct investment: globalization and regional economic integration," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 11(1), pages 35-82, April.
    20. Akhsyim Afandi, 2009. "An ardl approach to identify bank landing channel in Indonesia," Economic Journal of Emerging Markets, Universitas Islam Indonesia, vol. 1(1), pages 46-59, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal policy; Debt sustainability; Time series approach; Sensitivity analysis; Fiscal policy response function;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:inecre:v:56:y:2021:i:2:d:10.1007_s41775-021-00114-9. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.