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The economic effects of violent conflict: Evidence from asset market reactions

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Author Info

  • Massimo Guidolin

    (Manchester Business School, MAFG, and Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis)

  • Eliana La Ferrara

    ()
    (Bocconi University, IGIER)

Abstract

This article studies the effects of conflict onset on asset markets applying the event study methodology. The authors consider a sample of 101 internal and inter-state conflicts during the period 1974-2004 and find that a sizeable fraction of them has had a significant impact on stock market indices, exchange rates, oil and commodity prices. This fraction is inconsistent with pure chance, that is, with the selected probability of type-I errors in our tests of statistical significance. The results suggest that, on average, national stock markets are more likely to display positive than negative reactions to conflict onset. When the authors distinguish between internal and inter-state conflicts, they find that the fraction of significant results is higher for international conflicts. When the authors classify events according to the region where they occur, they find that Asia and the Middle East are the regions where conflicts tend to have the strongest effects. Finally, the article reports evidence that abnormal returns would have accrued to investors systematically exploiting conflict onset to implement conflict-driven strategies. Results are robust to selecting a subset of high-intensity conflicts and to expanding the time window over which conflict events are defined. The findings of the article confirm the economic importance of the effects of conflicts on asset markets.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Peace Research Institute Oslo in its journal Journal of Peace Research.

Volume (Year): 47 (2010)
Issue (Month): 6 (November)
Pages: 671-684

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Handle: RePEc:sae:joupea:v:47:y:2010:i:6:p:671-684

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Web page: http://www.prio.no/

Related research

Keywords: asset markets; civil war; conflict; event study; stock prices;

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References

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  1. Paul Collier & Anke Hoeffler, 2004. "Greed and Grievance in Civil War," Development and Comp Systems 0409007, EconWPA.
  2. Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti, 1993. "Income Distribution, Political Instability, and Investment," NBER Working Papers 4486, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  5. Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1998. "The Quality of Government," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1847, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
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  7. Massimo Guidolin & Eliana La Ferrara, 2006. "Diamonds are forever, wars are not. Is conflict bad for private firms?," Working Papers 2005-004, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  8. Svensson, Jakob, 1998. "Investment, property rights and political instability: Theory and evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(7), pages 1317-1341, July.
  9. Roberto Rigobon & Brian Sack, 2003. "The effects of war risk on U.S. financial markets," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-18, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  10. Justin Wolfers & Eric Zitzewitz, 2009. "Using Markets to Inform Policy: The Case of the Iraq War," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 76(302), pages 225-250, 04.
  11. Alberto Abadie & Javier Gardeazabal, 2001. "The Economic Costs of Conflict: A Case-Control Study for the Basque Country," NBER Working Papers 8478, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Cited by:
  1. Klaus Abbink & Jordi Brandts & Benedikt Herrmann & Henrik Orzen, 2007. "Inter-Group Conflict and Intra-Group Punishment in an Experimental Contest Game," Working Papers 328, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
  2. Karolyi, G. Andrew, 2006. "The Consequences of Terrorism for Financial Markets: What Do We Know?," Working Paper Series 2006-6, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
  3. Kollias, Christos & Kyrtsou, Catherine & Papadamou, Stephanos, 2013. "The effects of terrorism and war on the oil price–stock index relationship," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 743-752.
  4. Rubin, Ofir D. & Ihle, Rico & Kachel, Yael & Goodwin, Barry K., 2013. "The impact of violent political conflict on commodity prices: The Israeli food market," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 150961, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  5. Christos Kollias & Stephanos Papadamou & Vangelis Arvanitis, 2013. "Symposium - Does Terrorism Affect the Stock-Bond Covariance? Evidence from European Countries," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 832-848, April.
  6. Gardeazabal, Javier, 2010. "Methods for Measuring Aggregate Costs of Conflict," DFAEII Working Papers 2010-09, University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II.
  7. Kollias Christos & Papadamou Stephanos & Psarianos Iacovos, 2014. "Rogue State Behavior and Markets: the Financial Fallout of North Korean Nuclear Tests," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 20(2), pages 26, April.
  8. Choudhry, Taufiq, 2010. "World War II events and the Dow Jones industrial index," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1022-1031, May.
  9. Fratzscher, Marcel & Stracca, Livio, 2009. "Does it pay to have the euro? Italy’s politics and financial markets under the lira and the euro," Working Paper Series 1064, European Central Bank.
  10. Kallberg, Jarl & Liu, Crocker H. & Pasquariello, Paolo, 2008. "Updating expectations: An analysis of post-9/11 returns," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 400-432, November.

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