IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/jothpo/v34y2022i2p219-235.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Rational erraticism

Author

Listed:
  • Frank Bohn

    (Department of Economics, Institute for Management Research, Radboud University, Nijmegen, the Netherlands, 6525 AJ Nijmegen
    KOF Swiss Economic Institute, Zurich, Switzerland)

  • Xue Wang

    (School of Economics, 12603Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, Chengdu, China)

Abstract

Trump and Bolsonaro are perceived as erratic presidents, but they may actually be quite rational. We explore two channels of manipulation in a polarized society. One relates to swing voters and their perception of a president’s competence. The other one captures the effort by a president to appeal and mobilize her base voters. We model erraticism in dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic, but our model could also be applied to other realms of political manipulation. We find that erratic freedom propaganda directed against state-administered lockdowns may help a president in her re-election bid. Paradoxically, if the challenger gains popular support or increases voter mobilization against the president, it is optimal for the president to further increase erratic propaganda in order to increase the mobilization of her own supporters. Our predicted surge in voter mobilization is actually a main outcome of the 2020 US elections.

Suggested Citation

  • Frank Bohn & Xue Wang, 2022. "Rational erraticism," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 34(2), pages 219-235, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jothpo:v:34:y:2022:i:2:p:219-235
    DOI: 10.1177/09516298221081807
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/09516298221081807
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/09516298221081807?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Callander, Steven & Wilkie, Simon, 2007. "Lies, damned lies, and political campaigns," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 262-286, August.
    2. Lilla V. Orr & Gregory A. Huber, 2020. "The Policy Basis of Measured Partisan Animosity in the United States," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 64(3), pages 569-586, July.
    3. Bohn, Frank & Veiga, Francisco José, 2021. "Political forecast cycles," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    4. Toke S. Aidt & Jayasri Dutta, 2017. "Fiscal Federalism and Electoral Accountability," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 19(1), pages 38-58, February.
    5. Christina J. Schneider, 2019. "Euroscepticism and government accountability in the European Union," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 217-238, June.
    6. Toke Aidt & Francisco Veiga & Linda Veiga, 2011. "Election results and opportunistic policies: A new test of the rational political business cycle model," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 148(1), pages 21-44, July.
    7. Shi, Min & Svensson, Jakob, 2006. "Political budget cycles: Do they differ across countries and why?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(8-9), pages 1367-1389, September.
    8. Susanne Lohmann, 1998. "Rationalizing the Political Business Cycle: A Workhorse Model," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(1), pages 1-17, March.
    9. Martin Bisgaard, 2019. "How Getting the Facts Right Can Fuel Partisan‐Motivated Reasoning," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 63(4), pages 824-839, October.
    10. Kenneth Rogoff & Anne Sibert, 1988. "Elections and Macroeconomic Policy Cycles," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 55(1), pages 1-16.
    11. Huber, Gregory A. & Hill, Seth J. & Lenz, Gabriel S., 2012. "Sources of Bias in Retrospective Decision Making: Experimental Evidence on Voters’ Limitations in Controlling Incumbents," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 106(4), pages 720-741, November.
    12. Frank Bohn, 2018. "Political cycles: Beyond rational expectations," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(10), pages 1-23, October.
    13. Christopher Wratil, 2019. "Territorial Representation and the Opinion–Policy Linkage: Evidence from the European Union," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 63(1), pages 197-211, January.
    14. Svolik, Milan W., 2020. "When Polarization Trumps Civic Virtue: Partisan Conflict and the Subversion of Democracy by Incumbents," Quarterly Journal of Political Science, now publishers, vol. 15(1), pages 3-31, January.
    15. Jess Benhabib & Richard H. Day, 1981. "Rational Choice and Erratic Behaviour," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 48(3), pages 459-471.
    16. Rogoff, Kenneth, 1990. "Equilibrium Political Budget Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(1), pages 21-36, March.
    17. Navin Kartik & R. Preston McAfee, 2007. "Signaling Character in Electoral Competition," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 852-870, June.
    18. Erik Peterson & Shanto Iyengar, 2021. "Partisan Gaps in Political Information and Information‐Seeking Behavior: Motivated Reasoning or Cheerleading?," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 65(1), pages 133-147, January.
    19. Toke S. Aidt & Jayasri Dutta, 2008. "Policy Compromises: Corruption And Regulation In A Democracy," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(3), pages 335-360, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Frank Bohn & Francisco José Veiga, 2019. "Political Budget Forecast Cycles," NIPE Working Papers 12/2019, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    2. Frank Bohn, 2018. "Political cycles: Beyond rational expectations," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(10), pages 1-23, October.
    3. Bohn, Frank & Veiga, Francisco José, 2021. "Political forecast cycles," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    4. Frank Bohn & Francisco José Veiga, 2019. "Elections, recession expectations and excessive debt: an unholy trinity," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 180(3), pages 429-449, September.
    5. García, Israel & Hayo, Bernd, 2021. "Political budget cycles revisited: Testing the signalling process," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    6. Hanusch, Marek & Keefer, Philip, 2014. "Younger parties, bigger spenders? Party age and political budget cycles," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 1-18.
    7. Ilaria Petrarca, 2013. "No news is costly news: the link between the diffusion of the press and public spending," Working Papers 16/2013, University of Verona, Department of Economics.
    8. Marek Hanusch & Daniel Magleby, 2014. "Popularity, polarization, and political budget cycles," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 159(3), pages 457-467, June.
    9. Jorge M. Streb & Daniel Lema & Gustavo Torrens, 2009. "Checks and Balances on Political Budget Cycles: Cross‐Country Evidence," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(3), pages 426-447, August.
    10. Kouvavas, Omiros, 2013. "Political Budget Cycles Revisited, the Case for Social Capital," MPRA Paper 57504, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Sep 2013.
    11. Troeger, Vera & Schneider, Christina J., 2012. "Strategic Budgeteering and Debt Allocation," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 85, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    12. Aidt, Toke S. & Mooney, Graham, 2014. "Voting suffrage and the political budget cycle: Evidence from the London Metropolitan Boroughs 1902–1937," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 53-71.
    13. Conconi, Paola & DeRemer, David R. & Kirchsteiger, Georg & Trimarchi, Lorenzo & Zanardi, Maurizio, 2017. "Suspiciously timed trade disputes," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 57-76.
    14. Linda G. Veiga & Georgios Efthyvoulou & Atsuyoshi Morozumi, 2018. "Political Budget Cycles: Conditioning Factors and New Evidence," NIPE Working Papers 21/2018, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    15. Niklas Potrafke, 2012. "Political cycles and economic performance in OECD countries: empirical evidence from 1951–2006," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 150(1), pages 155-179, January.
    16. Dorn, Florian, 2023. "Elections and Government Efficiency," VfS Annual Conference 2023 (Regensburg): Growth and the "sociale Frage" 277700, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    17. Eric Dubois, 2016. "Political Business Cycles 40 Years after Nordhaus," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-01291401, HAL.
    18. Ganesh Manjhi & Meeta Keswani Mehra, 2019. "Dynamics of Political Budget Cycle," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 5(1), pages 135-158, March.
    19. Foremny, Dirk & Freier, Ronny & Moessinger, Marc-Daniel & Yeter, Mustafa, 2014. "Overlapping political budget cycles in the legislative and the executive," ZEW Discussion Papers 14-099, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    20. Castro, Vítor & Martins, Rodrigo, 2018. "Politically driven cycles in fiscal policy: In depth analysis of the functional components of government expenditures," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 44-64.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:jothpo:v:34:y:2022:i:2:p:219-235. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.