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The Indirect Effect of Ethnic Heterogeneity on the Likelihood of Civil War Onset

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  • Randall J. Blimes

    (Department of Political Science University of Colorado, Boulder)

Abstract

This study leverages a statistical model to answer an empirical puzzle: given that popular conventional wisdom and many theories of ethnic conflict suggest that the ethnic composition of a society should influence the probability that a country experiences civil war, why are the results of large- n studies so contradictory? The author argues that confusion over the nature of the relationship between ethnic cleavages and the likelihood of civil war onset stems from a disconnect between ethnic conflict theory and empirical testing. Most studies that test for a relationship between the level of ethnic fractionalization and civil war onset test only for a direct relationship, while theories of ethnic conflict have suggested that ethnic diversity should have an indirect effect of the likelihood of civil war onset. The author uses a heteroskedastic probit model to show that ethnic fractionalization has an indirect effect on the likelihood of civil war onset.

Suggested Citation

  • Randall J. Blimes, 2006. "The Indirect Effect of Ethnic Heterogeneity on the Likelihood of Civil War Onset," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 50(4), pages 536-547, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:50:y:2006:i:4:p:536-547
    DOI: 10.1177/00222706289402
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    6. Paul Collier & Anke Hoeffler, 2000. "Greed and Grievance in Civil War," CSAE Working Paper Series 2000-18, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Phanindra V. Wunnava & Aniruddha Mitra & Robert E. Prasch, 2015. "Globalization and the Ethnic Divide: Recent Longitudinal Evidence," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 96(5), pages 1475-1492, November.
    2. Tim Krieger & Daniel Meierrieks, 2016. "Land Grabbing and Ethnic Conflict," Homo Oeconomicus: Journal of Behavioral and Institutional Economics, Springer, vol. 33(3), pages 243-260, October.
    3. Sefa Awaworyi Churchill & Janet Exornam Ocloo & Diana Siawor-Robertson, 2017. "Ethnic Diversity and Health Outcomes," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 134(3), pages 1077-1112, December.
    4. Peter T. Leeson & Claudia R. Williamson, 2011. "Can’t We All Just Get Along? Fractionalization, Institutions and Economic Consequences," Chapters, in: Christopher J. Coyne & Rachel L. Mathers (ed.), The Handbook on the Political Economy of War, chapter 4, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    5. Andrew L. Dabalen & Ephraim Kebede & Saumik Paul, 2012. "Causes of Civil War: Micro Level Evidence from C�te d�Ivoire," HiCN Working Papers 118, Households in Conflict Network.
    6. Efendic, Adnan & Pugh, Geoffrey T., 2017. "Ethnic diversity and economic performance: An empirical investigation using survey data," Economics Discussion Papers 2017-57, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    7. Aniruddha Bagchi & João Ricardo Faria & Timothy Mathews, 2019. "A model of a multilateral proxy war with spillovers," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 179(3), pages 229-248, June.
    8. Koos, Carlo & Basedau, Matthias, 2012. "Does Uranium Mining Increase Civil Conflict Risk? Evidence from a Spatiotemporal Analysis of Africa from 1945 to 2010," GIGA Working Papers 205, GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies.
    9. Massimiliano Calì & Alen Mulabdic, 2017. "Trade and civil conflict: Revisiting the cross-country evidence," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 195-232, February.
    10. Sefa Awaworyi Churchill & Maria Rebecca Valenzuela & Wisdom Sablah, 2017. "Ethnic diversity and firm performance: Evidence from China’s materials and industrial sectors," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(4), pages 1711-1731, December.

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