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Economic Innovation, Systemic Leadership, and Military Preparations for War

Author

Listed:
  • Rafael Reuveny

    (School of Public and Environmental Affairs, Indiana University)

  • William R. Thompson

    (Department of Political Science, Indiana University)

Abstract

Focusing on an initial and potentially expandable four-variable model combining leading sector innovation, leading sector concentration, naval capability concentration, and military preparation for warfare, a vector autoregression analysis of U.S. data for the 1801-1992 period reveals a substantial degree of interrelationship. The two leading sector variables “Granger cause†the two military-political variables (naval capability concentration and military preparation for warfare). Eight of nine other anticipated relationships linking specific variables are obtained, as are two unanticipated relationships linking naval concentration negatively to the leading sector variables. A very tight, coevolutionary pattern is found to characterize the economic growth-systemic leadership-military mobilization experience of the United States, thereby underlining the constraints of structural change.

Suggested Citation

  • Rafael Reuveny & William R. Thompson, 1999. "Economic Innovation, Systemic Leadership, and Military Preparations for War," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 43(5), pages 570-595, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:43:y:1999:i:5:p:570-595
    DOI: 10.1177/0022002799043005002
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    References listed on IDEAS

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