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A War-Economy Theory of the Long Wave

In: Business Cycles

Author

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  • Joshua S. Goldstein

    (University of southern California)

Abstract

Long waves of roughly fifty years in economic and social life have intrigued many scholars because they offer an alternative perspective from which to view history and the present situation - an alternative to either static or linear projections of the future. Past empirical studies of long waves have agreed on the dating of long waves historically but not on the scope of those waves in terms of variables encompassed, relevant time-periods, or causal mechanisms (see review in Goldstein, 1988: ch. 3). I have sought to advance the empirical evidence relevant to long waves by sorting and testing conflicting hypotheses in the long-wave debate against about fifty historical time-series (Goldstein, 1988). Based on the most salient lagged correlations among variables found in my empirical analysis, I adduced a set of causal dynamics among variables that could account for the sequence of phenomena making up the long wave - as best that sequence could be inferred from spotty empirical data. The adduced theory is a tentative one, with many remaining loose ends and anomalies. But it is better-grounded empirically than past longwave theories.

Suggested Citation

  • Joshua S. Goldstein, 1991. "A War-Economy Theory of the Long Wave," International Economic Association Series, in: Niels Thygesen & Kumaraswamy Velupillai & Stefano Zambelli (ed.), Business Cycles, chapter 12, pages 303-328, Palgrave Macmillan.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:intecp:978-1-349-11570-9_12
    DOI: 10.1007/978-1-349-11570-9_12
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    Cited by:

    1. Rafael Reuveny & William R. Thompson, 1999. "Economic Innovation, Systemic Leadership, and Military Preparations for War," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 43(5), pages 570-595, October.
    2. Kevin A. Clarke, 2003. "Nonparametric Model Discrimination in International Relations," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 47(1), pages 72-93, February.
    3. Rafael Reuveny & William R. Thompson, 2002. "World Economic Growth, Northern Antagonism, and North-south Conflict," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 46(4), pages 484-514, August.

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