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Effectiveness of Currency Futures Market in India: An Empirical Investigation

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  • T. K. Dhaneesh Kumar
  • B. G. Poornima
  • P. K. Sudarsan

Abstract

This article investigates the role of currency futures market in India in the context of high volatility of Indian rupee (INR) in recent years. It examines whether the spot volatility before and after the introduction of currency futures were significantly different. It also examines the volatility causation between currency spot and futures market in India. The study considers three international currencies, namely US dollar (USD), British pound (GBP) and Euro in relation to INR for the period of 2006–2013. It made use of GARCH model framework and Granger causality test. The GARCH model results indicate that after the introduction of futures, there is less volatility for GBP and Euro but not in the case of USD. The Granger causality test reveals that USD and Euro has unidirectional causality, which means that spot causes future fluctuations, while in the case of GBP, there is bidirectional causality. The study concludes that the introduction of futures is not effective in reducing spot volatility for INR–USD but there is a marginal effect for INR–GBP and INR–Euro.

Suggested Citation

  • T. K. Dhaneesh Kumar & B. G. Poornima & P. K. Sudarsan, 2017. "Effectiveness of Currency Futures Market in India: An Empirical Investigation," IIM Kozhikode Society & Management Review, , vol. 6(2), pages 196-203, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:iimkoz:v:6:y:2017:i:2:p:196-203
    DOI: 10.1177/2277975217704606
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Christian Jochum & Ms. Laura E. Kodres, 1998. "Does the Introduction of Futures on Emerging Market Currencies Destabilize the Underlying Currencies?," IMF Working Papers 1998/013, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Ozer-Imer, Itir & Ozkan, Ibrahim, 2014. "An empirical analysis of currency volatilities during the recent global financial crisis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 394-406.
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    5. Judge, Amrit & Reancharoen, Tipprapa, 2014. "An empirical examination of the lead–lag relationship between spot and futures markets: Evidence from Thailand," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 335-358.
    6. Christian Jochum & Laura Kodres, 1998. "Does the Introduction of Futures on Emerging Market Currencies Destabilize the Underlying Currencies?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(3), pages 486-521, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Priya Malhotra & Pankaj Sinha, 2024. "Balanced Funds in India Amid COVID-19 Crisis: Spreader of Financial Contagion?," IIM Kozhikode Society & Management Review, , vol. 13(1), pages 7-24, January.
    2. Syarifuddin, Ferry, 2020. "Macroeconomic Consequences of Foreign Exchange Futures Market for Inflation Targeting Economies," MPRA Paper 104810, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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