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A hybrid mathematical model for urban land-use planning in association with environmental–ecological consideration under uncertainty

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Listed:
  • Shukui Tan
  • Lu Zhang
  • Min Zhou
  • Yanan Li
  • Siliang Wang
  • Bing Kuang
  • Xiang Luo

Abstract

Various uncertainties exist in most urban land-use allocation systems; however, they have not been considered in most traditional urban land-use allocation methods. In this study, an interval-probabilistic urban land-use allocation model is developed based on a hybrid interval-probabilistic programming method. The developed interval-probabilistic urban land-use allocation model can deal with uncertainties expressed as intervals and probability distributions; moreover, it can also help examine the reliability of satisfying (or risk of violating) system constraints under uncertainty; the interval-probabilistic urban land-use allocation model not only considers economic factors, but also involves environmental and ecological constraints, which can effectively reflect various interrelations among different aspects in the urban land-use system. The developed model is applied to a case of long-term land-use allocation planning in the city of Wuhan, China. Interval solutions associated with different risk levels of constraint violation are obtained. The desired system benefit from the land-use system will be between $ [1781.921, 2290.970] × 10 9 under the minimum violating probabilities, and in this condition, the optimized areas of industrial land, commercial land and landfill will be [35,739, 42,402] ha, [58,572, 62,450] ha, and [903, 1087] ha. Results provide the decision makers of Wuhan with desired land-use allocation patterns and environmental policies, which are related to a variety of trade-offs between system benefit and constraint-violation risk. Willingness to accept low benefit from land-use system will guarantee meeting the environmental protection objective. A strong desire to acquire high system benefit will run into the risk of violating environmental constraint.

Suggested Citation

  • Shukui Tan & Lu Zhang & Min Zhou & Yanan Li & Siliang Wang & Bing Kuang & Xiang Luo, 2017. "A hybrid mathematical model for urban land-use planning in association with environmental–ecological consideration under uncertainty," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 44(1), pages 54-79, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:envirb:v:44:y:2017:i:1:p:54-79
    DOI: 10.1177/0265813515608641
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    References listed on IDEAS

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