IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/artjou/v20y2021i2p131-142.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Elasticities of Gold Demand—An Empirical Analysis Using Cointegration and Error Correction Model

Author

Listed:
  • S. Maria Immanuvel
  • D. Lazar

Abstract

This article examines the long-run and the short-run elastic relationships between price, income and gold demand. Four major gold consuming countries in the world, such as India, the USA, Europe and Japan, are included in the analysis. The study period is from January 2000 to December 2017. Using the Cointegration and Error Correction model, we found a long-run relationship between gold demand, price and income of the consumers. Price elasticity is negative and income elasticity is positive in the long run. The speed of error correction is slightly higher for India. Indian gold market takes a shorter time to get back to its equilibrium than the other major gold consuming countries. India’s overall gold consumption is relatively lesser reactive to the fluctuations in the world gold price than the other countries. Consumers in India react expeditiously in the short run and their response to the price changes is stable in the long run. More than 70 per cent of India’s gold consumption is unaffected by the price fluctuations. This behaviour eventually increases the wealth in the country. Hence the study suggests that instead of curbing the demand, new financial products may be developed to monetise the gold lying idle in the households. Various gold monetisation schemes already launched by the government should reach especially the rural section, as most of them may not be aware of these schemes. This may tend to bring a considerable amount of gold into the system. JEL: G14, Q02, Q21

Suggested Citation

  • S. Maria Immanuvel & D. Lazar, 2021. "Elasticities of Gold Demand—An Empirical Analysis Using Cointegration and Error Correction Model," Arthaniti: Journal of Economic Theory and Practice, , vol. 20(2), pages 131-142, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:artjou:v:20:y:2021:i:2:p:131-142
    DOI: 10.1177/0976747920903118
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0976747920903118
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/0976747920903118?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Selvanathan, Saroja & Selvanathan, E. A., 1999. "The effect of the price of gold on its production: a time-series analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 265-275, December.
    2. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    3. Batchelor, Roy & Gulley, David, 1995. "Jewellery demand and the price of gold," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 37-42, March.
    4. Toraman, Cengiz & Basarir, Cagatay & Bayramoglu, Mehmet Fatih, 2011. "Determination of Factors Affecting the Price of Gold: A Study of MGARCH Model," Business and Economics Research Journal, Uludag University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, vol. 2(4), pages 1-37, October.
    5. Ramanathan, R., 1999. "Short- and long-run elasticities of gasoline demand in India: An empirical analysis using cointegration techniques," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 321-330, August.
    6. Tully, Edel & Lucey, Brian M., 2007. "A power GARCH examination of the gold market," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 316-325, June.
    7. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    8. Martha Starr & Ky Tran, 2008. "Determinants of the Physical Demand for Gold: Evidence from Panel Data," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(3), pages 416-436, March.
    9. Mukherjee, Paramita & Mukherjee, Vivekananda & Das, Debasmita, 2017. "Estimating elasticity of import demand for gold in India," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 183-193.
    10. Kanjilal, Kakali & Ghosh, Sajal, 2014. "Income and price elasticity of gold import demand in India: Empirical evidence from threshold and ARDL bounds test cointegration," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 135-142.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. O'Connor, Fergal A. & Lucey, Brian M. & Batten, Jonathan A. & Baur, Dirk G., 2015. "The financial economics of gold — A survey," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 186-205.
    2. Maria Immanuvel S & Daniel Lazar, 2022. "Does Volume of Gold Consumption Influence the World Gold Price?," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-14, June.
    3. Mukherjee, Paramita & Mukherjee, Vivekananda & Das, Debasmita, 2017. "Estimating elasticity of import demand for gold in India," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 183-193.
    4. Jeyhun I. Mikayilov & Shahriyar Mukhtarov & Hasan Dinçer & Serhat Yüksel & Rıdvan Aydın, 2020. "Elasticity Analysis of Fossil Energy Sources for Sustainable Economies: A Case of Gasoline Consumption in Turkey," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-15, February.
    5. Thi Hong Van Hoang & Amine Lahiani & David Heller, 2016. "Is gold a hedge against inflation? New evidence from a nonlinear ARDL approach," Post-Print hal-02012307, HAL.
    6. Hoang, Thi Hong Van & Lahiani, Amine & Heller, David, 2016. "Is gold a hedge against inflation? New evidence from a nonlinear ARDL approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 54-66.
    7. Giuliodori, David & Rodriguez, Alejandro, 2015. "Analysis of the stainless steel market in the EU, China and US using co-integration and VECM," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 12-24.
    8. Bonilla, David, 2009. "Fuel demand on UK roads and dieselisation of fuel economy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 3769-3778, October.
    9. Shu-Mei Chiang & Chi-Tai Lin & Chien-Ming Huang, 2013. "The Relationships Among Stocks, Bonds and Gold: Safe Haven, Hedge or Neither?," Diversity, Technology, and Innovation for Operational Competitiveness: Proceedings of the 2013 International Conference on Technology Innovation and Industrial Management,, ToKnowPress.
    10. Sahoo, Manoranjan & Nayak, Pragyan Parimita & Hanhaga, Manindra & Swain, Kiranbala & Mallick, Rajat Kumar, 2023. "Exploring the asymmetric effect of remittance inflows on gold import demand: Evidence from a large gold-consuming and remittance-receiving country," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    11. Ntim, Collins G. & English, John & Nwachukwu, Jacinta & Wang, Yan, 2015. "On the efficiency of the global gold markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 218-236.
    12. Jimy Ferrer Carbonell & Roberto Escalante Semerena, 2014. "Demanda de gasolina en la zona metropolitana del Valle de México: análisis empírico de la reducción del subsidio," Revista de Economía del Rosario, Universidad del Rosario, June.
    13. Shafiee, Shahriar & Topal, Erkan, 2010. "An overview of global gold market and gold price forecasting," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 178-189, September.
    14. Muhammad Zia Ullah Khan & Muhammad Illyas & Muqqadas Rahman & Chaudhary Abdul Rahman, 2015. "Money Monetization and Economic Growth in Pakistan," International Journal of Economics and Empirical Research (IJEER), The Economics and Social Development Organization (TESDO), vol. 3(4), pages 184-192, April.
    15. Xu, Haifeng & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2012. "Dynamic linkages of stock prices between the BRICs and the United States: Effects of the 2008–09 financial crisis," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 344-352.
    16. Yap, Wei Yim & Lam, Jasmine S.L., 2006. "Competition dynamics between container ports in East Asia," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 35-51, January.
    17. Xiaojie Xu, 2017. "The rolling causal structure between the Chinese stock index and futures," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 31(4), pages 491-509, November.
    18. Ibrahim Ari & Muammer Koc, 2018. "Sustainable Financing for Sustainable Development: Understanding the Interrelations between Public Investment and Sovereign Debt," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-25, October.
    19. Ely, David & Salehizadeh, Mehdi, 2001. "American depositary receipts: An analysis of international stock price movements," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 343-363.
    20. Kazem Yavari & Mina Mehrnoosh, 2005. "The Welfare Cost of Inflation in Iran," Iranian Economic Review (IER), Faculty of Economics,University of Tehran.Tehran,Iran, vol. 10(2), pages 111-117, fall.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Gold; elasticity demand; cointegration; error correction;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • Q02 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Commodity Market
    • Q21 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Demand and Supply; Prices

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:artjou:v:20:y:2021:i:2:p:131-142. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.