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Regional Variations In The Social Preference Function Between Inflation And Unemployment

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  • David J. Smyth

    (Louisiana State University)

  • Susan W. Taylor

    (Kansas State University)

Abstract

In this paper we estimate presidential popularity functions for four regional subsets using a quadratic in inflation and unemployment. Popularity functions for the East, West, South, and Midwest are estimated by seemingly unrelated regressions using Gallup poll data for the Reagan administration. Through the use of a J-test, we establish that regional participants generally respond to national inflation and unemployment rates rather than regional macroeconomic statistics when assessing presidential performance. We also explore, through the use of a Wald test, differences in responses to macroeconomic fluctuations between the four regional groups. On the whole, we find surprising homogeneity in the preference functions across regions.

Suggested Citation

  • David J. Smyth & Susan W. Taylor, 1991. "Regional Variations In The Social Preference Function Between Inflation And Unemployment," The Review of Regional Studies, Southern Regional Science Association, vol. 21(1), pages 1-10, Spring.
    • Handle: RePEc:rre:publsh:v21:y:1991:i:1:p:1-10
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mueller, John E., 1970. "Presidential Popularity from Truman to Johnson1," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 64(1), pages 18-34, March.
    2. Frey, Bruno S & Schneider, Friedrich, 1978. "An Empirical Study of Politico-Economic Interaction in the United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 60(2), pages 174-183, May.
    3. Barro, Robert J & Gordon, David B, 1983. "A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural Rate Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(4), pages 589-610, August.
    4. MacRae, C Duncan, 1977. "A Political Model of the Business Cycle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(2), pages 239-263, April.
    5. Smyth, David J & Dua, Pami, 1988. "Public Perceptions of Macroeconomic Policy: An Econometric Analysis of the Reagan Presidency," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 70(2), pages 357-361, May.
    6. William D. Nordhaus, 1975. "The Political Business Cycle," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 42(2), pages 169-190.
    7. Chappell, Henry W, Jr, 1983. "Presidential Popularity and Macroeconomic Performance: Are Voters Really So Naive?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(3), pages 385-392, August.
    8. Ostrom, Charles W. & Simon, Dennis M., 1985. "Promise and Performance: A Dynamic Model of Presidential Popularity," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 79(2), pages 334-358, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. David Mitchell & Keith Willett, 2006. "Local Economic Performance and Election Outcomes," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 34(2), pages 219-232, June.

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